Energie : papiers de recherche moissonnés (28/02/2017)

Compétitivité et emploi de la filière solaire française d’ici 2023. Enerplan ; ADEME, FFB, 2017 http://www.enerplan.asso.fr/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1802&Itemid=252

On retiendra de l’étude que l’électricité photovoltaïque produite par les centrales au sol dans le sud de la France est déjà compétitive par rapport aux investissements dans de nouvelles installations de production, tandis que la baisse des coûts des installations en toitures va permettre le décollage progressif durant les 5 prochaines années du marché de l’autoconsommation. L’ensemble des scénarios envisagés démontre que l’objectif retenu dans la Programmation Pluriannuelle de l’Energie (PPE) pour 2023 sera atteignable avec un recours limité au soutien public, qui reste, malgré la compétitivité croissante de la filière, nécessaire dans les années à venir. Le développement de la filière générera la création de milliers d’emplois et des retombées fiscales importantes versées aux collectivités (180 M€/an)… lire la suite

Energy Storage Trends and Opportunities in Emerging Markets / Alex Eller & Dexter Gauntlett. Esmap ; IFC, 2017, 52 p. http://www.ifc.org/wps/wcm/connect/ed6f9f7f-f197-4915-8ab6-56b92d50865d/7151-IFC-EnergyStorage-report.pdf?MOD=AJPERES

Energy storage is a crucial tool for enabling the effective integration of renewable energy and unlocking the benefits of local generation and a clean, resilient energy supply. The technology continues to prove its value to grid operators around the world who must manage the variable generation of solar and wind energy. However, the development of advanced energy storage systems (ESS) has been highly concentrated in select markets, primarily in regions with highly developed economies. Despite rapidly falling costs, ESSs remain expensive and the significant upfront investment required is difficult to overcome without government support and/or low-cost financing. This type of advanced technology requires significant knowledge and expertise to be developed and operated cost-effectively. Furthermore, the services provided by ESS systems are often not properly valued or recognized within existing energy market regulations. Even with these barriers, installations of stationary ESSs are increasing dramatically around the world as system costs are rapidly decreasing and as energy markets are being reformed to allow for the use of more distributed resources.

The Forthcoming LNG Supply Wave: A Case of ‘Crying Wolf?’ / Howard Rogers. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, Feb. 2017, 11 p. (Energy insight ; 4) https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/forthcoming-lng-supply-wave-case-crying-wolf/

Many readers will be familiar with Aesop’s Fable ‘The Boy Who Cried Wolf’.  The tale concerns a shepherd boy who repeatedly tricks nearby villagers into thinking wolves are attacking his flock. When one actually does appear and the boy again calls for help, the villagers believe that it is another false alarm and the sheep (and in some versions the boy) are eaten by the wolf. Since 2015 analysts and researchers have announced the imminent arrival of a surge of LNG into the European gas market, as supply projects from mainly Australia and the USA come onstream and LNG in excess of Asian requirements arrives at European import terminals.  To date this has not happened, in fact 2016’s European region LNG imports were down 3.3% on 2015. This short paper examines the reasons for this and presents an updated view on the growth of global LNG supply and its impact on Europe under two Asian Demand Scenarios.

Long-term dynamics of investment decisions in electricity markets with variable renewables development and adequacy objectives / Marie Petitet. Thèse économie et finance, LEDa – Laboratoire d’Economie de Dauphine, soutenue le 29/11/2016, 315 p. https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01471847

In liberalised electricity systems, power markets are expected to ensure the long-term coordination of investments in order to guarantee security of supply, sustainability and competitiveness. In the reference energy-only market, it relies on the ability of power markets — where the hourly price is aligned with the marginal cost of the system — to provide an adequate price-signal for investors. However, in practice, questions have been raised about its ability to trigger investments in low-carbon technologies including in particular Renewable Energy Sources of Electricity (RES-E), and its ability to ensure capacity adequacy. After a characterisation of these market failures, this dissertation tackles the two research topics within a methodological framework based on a System Dynamics model developed to simulate private investment decisions in power markets.First, the results show that substituting out-of-market support mechanisms for RES-E by market-based investments helped by the sole implementation of a carbon price appears as a feasible solution to trigger RES-E development providing that there is a political commitment on a high carbon price. Second, it also appears that the energy-only market with price cap is ineffective to ensure capacity adequacy. Adding a capacity market or removing the price cap both bring benefits in terms of loss of load expectation and social welfare. Moreover, the capacity market is identified as the best option for regulators among the considered market designs.

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