Climat : papiers de recherche moissonnés (vendredi 5 mai 2017)

Environmental Integrity under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement / Lambert Schneider, Jürg Füssler, Stephanie La Hoz Theuer, Anik Kohli, Jakob Graichen, Sean Healy, Derik Broekhoff. German Emissions Trading Authority (DEHSt) at the German Environment Agency, March 2017, 53 p. (Discussion Paper) https://www.dehst.de/SharedDocs/downloads/EN/project-mechanisms/Discussion-Paper_Environmental_integrity.pdf

This discussion paper explores key issues and options to achieve environmental integrity under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. It proposes that environmental integrity in context of Article 6 means that using international transfers does not result in higher global GHG emissions than if mitigation targets of NDCs had been achieved only through domestic mitigation action. The paper identifies four issues that can affect the global GHG emissions outcome from international transfers: robust accounting for international transfers; the quality of units from mechanisms; the ambition of the NDC target of the transferring country; and presence of incentives and disincentives for further mitigation action. A particular risk is the international transfer of „hot air“. Based on global GHG emissions and the communicated NDCs, it is estimated that global mitigation action be undermined by up to 68 % if all hot air in current NDCs would be transferred. The paper identifies and discusses seven options to mitigate environmental integrity risks from international transfers, including principles for international guidance on mechanism design and communication of NDCs, international reporting and review, eligibility criteria, limits on international transfers, exchange or discount rates, green investment schemes, and carbon clubs. Finally, the paper explores for crediting mechanisms how additionality could be demonstrated and how emission baselines could be set under the new framework of the Paris Agreement where nearly all Parties have communicated a mitigation target in their NDC.

Comment financer la transition écologique ? / Gustave Kenedi et Laurène Tran, Regards croisés sur l’économie, n° 20, 2017, pp. 159-163 http://www.cairn.info/revue-regards-croises-sur-l-economie-2017-1-page-159.htm

Le constat est implacable : le coût de l’immobilité face au réchauffement climatique est supérieur à celui de l’action immédiate (Stern, 2006). Le récent Accord de Paris a affirmé l’objectif de contenir l’augmentation de la température moyenne de la planète « nettement en-dessous » de 2˚C et de poursuivre les démarches existantes visant à limiter l’accroissement des températures à 1,5˚C. Pour ce faire, il est estimé que tous les pays devront fournir un effort supplémentaire de réduction de leurs émissions de gaz à effets de serre (GES) d’environ 30 % à horizon 2030 (Auverlot et Beeker, 2016). Comment financer cette transition ? Les réponses à cette question sont multiples et, dans ce court texte, nous n’analyserons que deux leviers qui nous apparaissent être les plus essentiels : d’une part, la mise en place d’un véritable prix du carbone, et d’autre part, l’utilisation du levier du crédit bancaire et de l’épargne.

International trade consequences of climate change / Rob Dellink, Hyunjeong Hwang, Elisa Lanzi  and Jean Chateau. Paris : OECD, April 2017, 71 p. http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/content/workingpaper/9f446180-en

This report provides an analysis of how climate change damages may affect international trade in the coming decades and how international trade can help limit the costs of climate change. It analyses the impacts of climate change on trade considering both direct effects on infrastructure and transport routes and the indirect economic impacts resulting from changes in endowments and production. A qualitative analysis with a literature review is used to present the direct effects of climate change. The indirect impacts of climate change damages on trade are analysed with the OECD’s ENV-Linkages model, a dynamic computable general equilibrium model with global coverage and sector-specific international trade flows. By building on the analysis in the OECD (2015) report « The Economic Consequences of Climate Change », the modelling analysis presents a plausible scenario of future socioeconomic developments and climate damages, to shed light on the mechanisms at work in explaining how climate change will affect trade.


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