Energie : papiers de recherche moissonnés (mercredi 14 juin 2017)

The next energy revolution: The promise and peril of high-tech innovation /David Victor and Kassia Yanosek, Planet Policy, 13/06/2017 (originally appeared in Foreign Affairs) https://www.brookings.edu/blog/planetpolicy/2017/06/13/the-next-energy-revolution-the-promise-and-peril-of-high-tech-innovation/

The technology revolution has transformed one industry after another, from retail to manufacturing to transportation. Its most far-reaching effects, however, may be playing out in the unlikeliest of places: the traditional industries of oil, gas, and electricity…

Qatar LNG: New trading patterns but no cause for alarm / Howard Rogers. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, June 2017, 4 p. (Oxford energy comment) https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/qatar-lng-new-trading-patterns-no-cause-alarm/

As described in a recent Comment (‘Feud Between Brothers: the GCC rift and implications for oil and gas markets’), the severing of diplomatic ties with Qatar by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt, amid accusations of supporting extremism have prompted many to ponder the impact on oil and gas markets. This Comment examines the ongoing likely impact on gas markets in more detail. It is argued that the potential loss of 7.7 BCMA of exports of Qatari LNG to UAE and Egypt is not of concern.  Both these importers participate in the LNG spot and short term market and would quickly find alternative suppliers; Qatar would quickly find other markets. The (unlikely) loss of the Dolphin pipeline supply of 17.7 BCMA in 2015 would be more serious.  The UAE and Oman could cope by decreasing LNG exports and using underutilised UAE LNG import capacity to meet their domestic market requirements, but this could involve significant additional costs. This would also reduce LNG supplies to other world importers.  This is less serious against a background of rapidly growing global LNG supply as new projects from the US, Australia and Russia come on stream – in 2017 an additional 30+ BCMA is expected. Any short-term impact would be met by increased flows of Russian pipeline gas to Europe. Routing LNG tankers from Qatar to Europe around the African Cape rather than the Suez Canal could add up to $0.5/mmbtu to Qatar’s transport cost and in the first instance encourage it to divert volumes to Asia.  This would however depress Asian LNG spot prices and incentivise other exporters to target Europe rather than Asian spot markets.

Sustainable and optimal use of biomass for energy in the EU beyond 2020: final report / PricewaterhouseCoopers EU Services EESV’s consortium. European Commission. EC Directorate General for Energy Directorate C1 – Renewables and CCS policy, May 2017, 198 p.  StudyAnnexes

This study provides an analysis of biomass supply potentials for energy use in the EU, projections of EU bioenergy demand post-2020, and an impact assessment of possible EU policy options for bioenergy sustainability post-2020, with a focus on biomass for heat and power.

Future European Gas Transmission Bottlenecks in Differing Supply and Demand Scenarios / Beatrice Petrovich, Howard Rogers, Harald Hecking, Simon Schulte & Florian Weiser. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, June 2017, 38 p. (OIES paper: NG 119) https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/future-european-gas-transmission-bottlenecks-differing-supply-demand-scenarios/

With European natural gas consumption having declined since the beginning of this decade it may seem strange to focus on transmission system bottlenecks in a regional market which, having seen dramatic expansion since its inception in the late 1960s, has at best only modest growth potential. Work by Beatrice Petrovich examining the price correlation of European gas trading hubs suggests that the capacity and contractual relationships of Europe’s transmission system lagged behind changing supply flow patterns and the responsiveness required to allow gas to flow freely in response to hub price supply signals in a liberalising market. Projecting forward to 2030 this paper, using the EWI TIGER model, looks at how bottlenecks may change under two scenarios based on high and low cases for LNG and Russian pipeline gas imports respectively, in the context of modest European gas demand growth. Bottlenecks are examined both in terms of LNG and pipeline import capacity at the European border and at critical interconnector points within Europe…

 


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