Energie : papiers de recherche moissonnés (21 juillet 2017)

India’s Gas Market Post-COP21 / Anupama Sen. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, June 2017, 39 p. (OIES Paper: NG 120) https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/indias-gas-market-post-cop21/

India is once again in the spotlight as a potential future growth market for gas, as demand elsewhere in the OECD and non-OECD recedes or grows increasingly uncertain. Yet, the view on gas from within India has been in constant flux over the last decade, with no realistic vision on its role in the energy mix. But in recent months, there has been an upsurge in India’s consumption of imported LNG – driven largely by the fertilisers, city gas and industry sectors – prompting a revival in policy activity around the reconsideration of gas’s role in the energy mix. At the same time, India has embarked on one of the developing world’s most ambitious targets, specifically to increase its renewables installed capacity by more than threefold (to 175 GW) by 2022, as part of a series of domestic policy targets made alongside its firm international commitments following its ratification of the COP21 agreement.

This paper disentangles the short-term developments and dynamics of demand in the main consuming sectors (power, fertilisers, industry and city gas), from the influence of longer-term determinants (prices, renewables policy, coal policy and pollution issues, and infrastructure) as enablers or constraints on the future outlook for gas. It presents three illustrative outlook cases for gas:

  • A continuation of the status quo to 2024, where gas demand growth will continue to be driven by underpinning policy targets in fertilisers, industry and city gas, which could form a limited but reliable demand base for gas, and which will continue to grow comfortably in the short term, with some potential to scale up thereafter, subject to the infrastructure constraint.
  • A role opening up for gas to 2027 in the likely event that India does not fully meet its renewables target – although this would present significant opportunities for gas demand, it is also constrained by prices, infrastructure, renewables policy and coal policy.
  • An outlook in which coal to gas switching is proactively encouraged through fiscal policy in the power sector, opening up an important and immediate role for gas to 2027 and beyond. This could lead to a substantial and anchoring role for gas in the power sector, but would require a nearly fivefold increase in the ‘coal tax’ and a potential 30 per cent increase in associated electricity tariffs. This outlook is constrained by renewables policy and policy on coal and air pollution.

A likely outcome is some combination of the first two outlook cases. More importantly, this paper emphasises the highly dynamic nature of the Indian market post-COP21, making the point that the short-term dynamics and longer-term determinants could effectively be studied in a number of combinations and permutations, in order to garner a better understanding of the Indian market as it evolves and develops towards meeting India’s key energy policy goals.

The EU Competition Investigation into Gazprom’s Sales to Central and Eastern Europe: a detailed analysis of the commitments and the way forward / Jonathan Stern and Katja Yafimava. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, July 2017, 44 p. (OIES Paper: NG 121) https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/eu-competition-investigation-gazproms-sales-central-eastern-europe-detailed-analysis-commitments-way-forward/

A detailed analysis by Jonathan Stern and Katja Yafimava of Gazprom’s March 2017 competition commitments in respect of gas sales to Central and Eastern Europe, concludes that the concerns expressed by DG COMP in respect of territorial restrictions, pricing, and infrastructure issues have been addressed, both in form and in substance. Acceptance of these commitments would provide insurance against future abuse by Gazprom of its dominant position in these countries. Most importantly, Gazprom has henceforth agreed to charge average weighted import border prices and/or prices at relevant generally accepted liquid hubs in Continental Europe instead of alternative fuel (oil-linked) prices. This means that if the commitments are accepted, buyers in these countries will be able to buy Russian gas at hub prices before interconnections have been established with these hubs (potentially up to three years hence). The acceptance by Gazprom of competitive, defined as liquid hub, prices has much wider significance, as it signals the end of alternative fuel pricing for gas in EU countries.

DG COMPs market test of the commitments elicited a generally positive response with the exception of Poland’s PGNiG which expressed deep dissatisfaction on virtually all issues, in particular the lack of any fine or obligation for Gazprom to pay compensation for its past behaviour. The study suggests that the most likely outcome is the acceptance by DG COMP of the commitments (with minor amendments) and closure of the case with a settlement. Should some member states, specifically Poland, attempt to derail the settlement, causing the case to be referred to the EU Court of Justice (CJEU), the commitments are still likely to be implemented but legal proceedings could drag on for several more years.

Lessons from previous coal transitions: synthesis report / Ben Caldecott, Oliver Sartor and Thomas Spencer. Iddri/Climate Strategies, 2017, 24 p. (Part of ‘Coal Transitions: Research and Dialogue on the Future of Coal’ Project) https://coaltransitions.org/reports/
Country studies : Czech RepublicSpainPolandThe NetherlandsThe United KingdomThe United States

The stabilisation of the climate system in line with the Paris Agreement on climate change is impossible without the timely phase out of unabated coal from the global energy system. As is increasingly recognised, this transition must also be “just” for workers and local communities. The Coal Transitions report inform the future of coal producing regions, highlighting key lessons from previous coal transitions, in the Netherlands, UK, Czech Republic, Poland, Spain and the US.

Stranded assets and renewables:  How the energy transition aff ects the value of energy reserves, buildings and capital stock. AbuDhabi : Irena, July 2017, 46 p. http://www.irena.org/menu/index.aspx?mnu=Subcat&PriMenuID=36&CatID=141&SubcatID=3870

This working paper examines the potential magnitude of asset stranding in the global energy sector due to a shift to renewables and energy efficiency that would be needed to fulfil the Paris Agreement. Governments, companies and financial institutions all face risk, with consequences along the whole investment chain in both mature and developing capital markets…

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