Time is running out: the 2°C target and optimal climate policies

Time is running out: the 2°C target and optimal climate policies / Yu-Fu Chen, Michael Funke & Nicole Glanemann. University of Dundee. Scottish institute for research in economics, November 2011, 29 p. (Discussion paper ; SIRE-DP-2012-17)

http://repo.sire.ac.uk/bitstream/10943/320/1/SIRE_DP_2012_17.pdf

Abstract : The quintessence of recent natural science studies is that the 2 degrees C target can only be achieved with massive emission reductions in the next few years. The central twist of this paper is the addition of this limited time to act into a non-perpetual real options framework analysing optimal climate policy under uncertainty. The window-of-opportunity modelling setup shows that the limited time to act may spark a trend reversal in the direction of low-carbon alternatives. However, the implementation of a climate policy is evaded by high uncertainty about possible climate pathways.


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