Global warming under old and new scenarios using IPCC climate sensitivity range estimates

Global warming under old and new scenarios using IPCC climate sensitivity range estimates / Joeri Rogelj, Malte Meinshausen & Reto Knutti. Nature Climate Change, published online 5 Feb. 2012.

Read the paper : https://edit.ethz.ch/iac/people/knuttir/papers/rogelj12natcc.pdf

The paper on Nature Climate Change site : http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n4/full/nclimate1385.html

Climate projections for the fourth assessment report1 (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were based on scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios2 (SRES) and simulations of the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project3 (CMIP3). Since then, a new set of four scenarios (the representative concentration pathways or RCPs) was designed4. Climate projections in the IPCC fifth assessment report (AR5) will be based on the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project5 (CMIP5), which incorporates the latest versions of climate models and focuses on RCPs. This implies that by AR5 both models and scenarios will have changed, making a comparison with earlier literature challenging. To facilitate this comparison, we provide probabilistic climate projections of both SRES scenarios and RCPs in a single consistent framework. These estimates are based on a model set-up that probabilistically takes into account the overall consensus understanding of climate sensitivity uncertainty, synthesizes the understanding of climate system and carbon-cycle behaviour, and is at the same time constrained by the observed historical warming. (© Nature Climate Change)


OpenEdition vous propose de citer ce billet de la manière suivante :
Danièle Revel (31 janvier 2013). Global warming under old and new scenarios using IPCC climate sensitivity range estimates. Veille énergie climat. Consulté le 25 juillet 2024 à l’adresse https://doi.org/10.58079/oa43


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