Comparisons of Chinese and Indian energy consumption forecasting models

Comparisons of Chinese and Indian energy consumption forecasting models / Vipin Arora. U.S. Energy Information Administration,  July 2013, 14 p.

http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/48621/1/MPRA_paper_48621.pdf

Author’s abstract :

I evaluate the out-of-sample forecasting performance of five models of Chinese and Indian energy consumption. The results are mixed, but in general the auto-regressive distributed lag and unobserved components models perform the best over multiple evaluation criteria. I then use these two models and generate long-term forecasts [2010-2040] for comparison with the International Energy Outlook of the U.S. Energy Information Administration and other similar publications. For both countries the forecasting models predict higher levels and growth rates of energy consumption than the published estimates.


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