Assessing ‘‘dangerous climate change’’: Required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and nature
Assessing ‘‘dangerous climate change’’: Required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and nature / James Hansen et al. PLoS ONE, vol. 8, n° 12, pp. 1-26.
http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0081648
Authors’s abstract :
We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth’s measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today’s young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ~500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ~1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur ‘‘slow’’ feedbacks and eventual warming of 3–4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth’s energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.
–> A ce propos :
• UN’s 2C target will fail to avoid a climate disaster, scientists warn, the Guardian, 3/12/2013 http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/dec/03/un-2c-global-warming-climate-change
Global warming limit agreed is too late and dangerous as a 1C rise in temperature will trigger catastrophic events, study says…
• Davantage d’épisodes de fortes pluies à venir en Europe, Le Monde, 4/12/2013
L’Europe va connaître de plus en plus d’épisodes de fortes pluies, des périodes sèches accentuées et des vagues de chaleur, selon les observations tirées d’une centaine de simulations menées par 27 instituts de recherche. Ce travail, intitulé Euro-Cordex, vise à préciser le rapport du Groupe d’experts intergouvernemental sur l’évolution du climat. Ses auteurs estiment que la température devrait augmenter de 1˚Cà5˚C en Europe d’ici à la fin du siècle, de façon accélérée dans le sud en été et en hiver dans le nord du continent. Dans la revue Plos One, l’ancien chef climatologue de la NASA James Hansen et le directeur de l’Institut de la terre de l’université Columbia viennent de lancer un appel afin de stopper le réchauffement à son niveau actuel (© AFP)
OpenEdition vous propose de citer ce billet de la manière suivante :
Danièle Revel (5 décembre 2013). Assessing ‘‘dangerous climate change’’: Required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and nature. Veille énergie climat. Consulté le 23 janvier 2025 à l’adresse https://doi.org/10.58079/oaq9
