Rethinking the role of scenarios : participatory scripting low-carbon scenarios for France
Rethinking the role of scenarios : participatory scripting low-carbon scenarios for France / Sandrine Mathy, Energy Policy, vol. 77, February 2015, pp. 176-190.
l’article en ligne : http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421514005709
draft : http://hal.univ-grenoble-alpes.fr/hal-01086501v1
Author’s abstract :
This article considers the usefulness of low-carbon scenarios in public decision-making. They may be useful as a product-oriented trajectory. The scenarios on the agenda of the 2013 Energy Debate in France belong to this category. But a scenario may also be process-oriented, in the sense that its scripting process helps build consensus and a minimum level of agreement. We have scripted scenarios using a codevelopment method, involving about 40 stakeholders from the private and public sectors, and from the state : NGOs, consumer groups, trade unions, banks and local authorities. They selected policies they considered acceptable for achieving 75% greenhouse gases emission reductions in 2050. These policies were then integrated in the Imaclim-R-France technico-economic simulation model, as part of a high or moderate acceptability scenario. In the first case emissions were cut by between 58% and 72% by 2050 ; in the second case by between 68% and 81%, depending on the energy price assumptions. All these measures benefited jobs and economic growth, swiftly and durably cutting household spending on energy services. This offers a solid basis for gaining acceptability for low carbon trajectories ; the process constitutes also a framework for consolidating collective learning centering on the acceptability of climate policies.