Post-2020 climate agreements in the major economies assessed in the light of global models

Post-2020 climate agreements in the major economies assessed in the light of global models / Massimo Tavoni, Elmar Kriegler, Keywan Riahi, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Tino Aboumahboub, Alex Bowen, Katherine Calvin, Emanuele Campiglio, Tom Kober, Jessica Jewell, Gunnar Luderer, Giacomo Marangoni, David McCollum, Mariësse van Sluisveld, Anne Zimmer, Bob van der Zwaan. Nature Climate Change, 2014 – DOI 10.1038/NCLIMATE2475

Authors’s abstract :

Integrated assessment models can help in quantifying the implications of international climate agreements and regional climate action. This paper reviews scenario results from model intercomparison projects to explore different possible outcomes of post-2020 climate negotiations, recently announced pledges and their relation to the 2 °C target. We provide key information for all the major economies, such as the year of emission peaking, regional carbon budgets and emissions allowances. We highlight the distributional consequences of climate policies, and discuss the role of carbon markets for financing clean energy investments, and achieving efficiency and equity.

Présentation de l’étude :

Climate policy pledges are an important step forward but fall short of 2°C, IIASA news, 15/12/2014

Pledges to reduce emissions in China, Europe and the US provide an important step forward for climate change action, but a more comprehensive effort is needed to stabilize the climate below critical thresholds. Climate finance can cover investment gaps and alleviate distributional tensions, a new study shows.

Researchers have released one of the most comprehensive assessments of the timing and amount of greenhouse gas emissions that each of the world’s major economies could produce under different scenarios, i.e. without new climate policies, for the currently discussed pledges, and under a scenario that limits future temperature rise to 2°C. The study looks into several key negotiation issues on the road from the climate summit in Lima to the one in Paris 2015…

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