Politique climatique : papiers de recherche moissonnés (5 juin 2015)
China’s Carbon Emissions Report 2015 / Liu, Zhu. Cambridge : Report for Sustainability Science Program, Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government, Harvard Kennedy School, Energy Technology Innovation Policy research group, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School, May 2015, 28 p.
Summary (© Belfer Center) :
In 2012 China was the largest contributor to carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning and from cement production. With 8.50 Gt CO2 in in carbon emissions from fossil burning and cement production in 2012, China was responsible for 25 percent of global carbon emissions. China’s cumulative emissions from fossil fuel burning and cement production from 1950–2012 were 130 Gt CO2. The magnitude and growing annual rate of growth of China’s carbon emissions make this country the major driver of global carbon emissions and thus a key focus for efforts in emissions mitigations. This report presents independent data on China’s carbon emissions from 1950–2012, and provides a basis to support mitigation efforts and China’s low-carbon development plan… lire la suite
Assessing Options to Increase Climate Support / Jane Ellis, Sara Moarif, Yoko Nobuoka, Marta Pellegrino, Jennifer Helgeson. Paris : OECD, May 2015, 52 p. (Climate Change Expert Group Paper N°2015/3)
Climate support will be an important element in reaching a post-2020 climate agreement at COP 21 in December 2015. To further increase and mobilise the levels of climate support post-2020, a number of proposals have been made in the negotiating text produced in the Geneva session of the Ad-hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in February 2015. This paper explores the advantages and disadvantages of several of these proposals, focusing on those that are clear and specific. The paper assesses proposals on mobilising climate finance using the following criteria: (i) the level of financial flows that they could generate; (ii) how much of this could be mobilised in the UNFCCC context; (iii) the ease of implementation of the proposal; (iv) if and how such increased mobilisation could be monitored; and (v) whether the proposal would fill a specific gap in the context of climate support within the UNFCCC. The paper undertakes a similar assessment for proposals in the Geneva text on enhancing the level of technology development and transfer, as well as capacity building. It discusses whether the proposals could potentially increase technology development and transfer, capacity building and development, as well as whether they are likely to do so in practice, based on current experience and ease of implementation. The proposals vary significantly in the amount of climate support they could mobilise (or enhance, in the case of technology and capacity building), for a range of reasons. These include the particular wording of the proposals, their sensitivity to national implementation, uncertainty in measuring progress towards objectives, and in some cases the limited role the UNFCCC plays as an institution in a given area of climate support. (© OECD)
Economic impacts of climate change / Richard S. J. Tol. Department of Economics, University of Sussex, Falmer, 2015, 40 p. (Working Paper Series ; N° 75-2015)
Abstract : Climate change will probably have a limited impact on the economy and human welfare in the 21st century. The initial impacts of climate change may well be positive. In the long run, the negative impacts dominate the positive ones. Negative impacts will be substantially greater in poorer, hotter, and lower-lying countries. Poverty reduction complements greenhouse gas emissions reduction as a means to reduce climate change impacts. Climate change may affect the growth rate of the economy and may trap more people in poverty but quantification is difficult. The optimal carbon tax in the near term is somewhere between a few tens and a few hundreds of dollars per tonne of carbon. (© Tol)
The Road to Paris and Beyond: Comparing Emissions Mitigation Efforts / Joseph E. Aldy and William A. Pizer, Resources, n° 189, 2015
As countries announce pledges to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the lead-up to the UN climate change conference this December, Joseph E. Aldy and William A. Pizer explore which metrics are most appropriate to compare countries’ efforts…
The Dynamics of Pollution Permits / Makoto Hasegawa & Stephen W. Salant. Resources for the Future, May 2015, 27 p. (RFF Discussion Paper 15-20)
Abstract (© RFF) : We review the literature on bankable emission permits which has developed over the last two decades. Most articles analyze either theoretical or simulation models. The theoretical literature considers the problem of minimizing the discounted sum of social costs and the possibility of decentralizing the solution through competitive permit markets. In some cases, authors do not explicitly consider pollution damages but instead assume that the planner’s goal is to minimize the discounted social cost of reducing cumulative emissions by a given amount. In other cases, authors do not explicitly consider an emissions reduction target but assume that the goal is to minimize the discounted sum of pollution damages and abatement costs. Simulations permit evaluation of alternative government policies under uncertainty. We conclude by pointing out directions for future work.