Climat : papiers de recherche moissonnés – lundi 16 novembre 2015

Mobilités durables : sortir du « tout pétrole » dans les transports / collectif d’experts « Energie et développement durable ». Fondation Jean Jaurès, nov. 2015, 20 p. (Note n° 283)

Pour la COP21 la France s’est engagée à diviser par 4 ses émissions de gaz à effet de serre (GES) d’ici 2050. Un objectif ambitieux que nécessite la mise en place d’une politique aussi ambitieuse : sortir du tout pétrole dans les transports, qui représentent 27% du total des émissions de GES dans notre pays.

Reinvigorating International Climate Policy: A Comprehensive Framework for Effective Nonstate Action / Sander Chan, Harro van Asselt, Thomas Hale, Kenneth W. Abbott, Marianne Beisheim, Matthew Hoffmann, Brendan Guy, Niklas Höhne, Angel Hsu, Philipp Pattberg, Pieter Pauw, Céline Ramstein and Oscar Widerberg, Global Policy, published online: 9/11/2015 (free access)

As countries negotiate a new climate agreement for the United Nations climate conference in December 2015, a groundswell of climate actions is emerging as cities, regions, businesses and civil society groups act on mitigation and adaptation, independently, with each other and with national governments and international organizations. The Paris conference provides a historic opportunity to establish a framework to catalyse, support, and steer these initiatives. Without such a framework, ‘bottom-up’ climate governance runs the risk of failing to deliver meaningful results. Social science research highlights the need for a comprehensive approach that promotes ambition, experimentation and accountability, and avoids unnecessary overlaps. This article specifies functions and design principles for a new, comprehensive framework for sub- and nonstate climate actions that could provide effective coordination.

Impact of Current Climate Proposals / Bjorn Lomborg, Global Policy, published online: 9/11/2015 (free access)

This article investigates the temperature reduction impact of major climate policy proposals implemented by 2030, using the standard MAGICC climate model. Even optimistically assuming that promised emission cuts are maintained throughout the century, the impacts are generally small. The impact of the US Clean Power Plan (USCPP) is a reduction in temperature rise by 0.013°C by 2100. The full US promise for the COP21 climate conference in Paris, its so-called Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) will reduce temperature rise by 0.031°C. The EU 20-20 policy has an impact of 0.026°C, the EU INDC 0.053°C, and China INDC 0.048°C. All climate policies by the US, China, the EU and the rest of the world, implemented from the early 2000s to 2030 and sustained through the century will likely reduce global temperature rise about 0.17°C in 2100. These impact estimates are robust to different calibrations of climate sensitivity, carbon cycling and different climate scenarios. Current climate policy promises will do little to stabilize the climate and their impact will be undetectable for many decades.

The Global Warming Revolution: Climate Change, the United Nations and Paris COP21 / Alan Reed. Green Fields America,October 2015, 139 p.

Compact current history of the United Nations climate change system from 1972 to Paris.  THe book clarifies the historic issues negotiators in Paris must address, including the path to reducing energy from carbon fuels and development of renewable energy, financing mitigation and adaptation for developing countries, and reducing economic damage from global warming. It incorporates the geopolitical issues with the scientific consensus.

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