Energie : papiers de recherche moissonnés (lundi 14 décembre 2015)

The impact of phase II of the EU ETS on wholesale electricity prices / Ibrahim Ahamada & Djamel Kira, Revue d’économie politique, vol. 126, n° 6, 2015, pp. 887-908 https://www.cairn.info/resume.php?ID_ARTICLE=REDP_256_0887

This paper addresses the economic impact of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) for carbon on wholesale electricity prices in France and Germany during the Kyoto commitment period (2008-2012). We identify a structural break occurred on the carbon spot price series in October 2008, which is mainly resulting from the financial and economic crisis…

Oil Contracts, Progressive Taxation and Government Take in the Context of Uncertainty in Crude Oil Prices: The Case of Chad / G. D. Gab-Leyba & B. Laporte. Clermont-Ferrand : Cerdi, 2015, 28 p. (Études et Documents, n°25) https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01217417

Concession Contracts (CC) and Production Sharing Contracts (PSC) have quite different implications for Government Take and the properties of the tax system, such as progressivity. In general, taxation via CC introduces significant distortions in activity, particularly due to the balance of royalties which tax production irrespective of the profitability of the project. So CC is normally regressive while PSC is normally progressive, because PSC taxation depends more directly on the profitability of the project. Chad has the distinction of having introduced PSC in the 2007 Chad oil code, while maintaining a royalty on production. Despite this feature, we show with a Cash Flow model and Monte Carlo simulations that the application of the 2007 oil code introduced more progressivity into taxation. This feature is particularly interesting in the current context of falling crude oil prices, because it maintains a favorable tax regime for exploration and exploitation by multinational oil companies. As a result, the Chad government should reactivate a counter-cyclical policy of oil revenue reserves when the crude oil price increases again.

The evolution of European traded gas hubs / Patrick Heather. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, Dec. 2015, 124 p. (OIES paper NG 104) http://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/NG-104.pdf

This paper by Patrick Heather is the third he has written on the development of European traded gas hubs. It is the culmination of extensive field research interviewing a range of market participants from regulators, TSOs, traders and government officials – from Spain to the Baltics, from Britain to the Balkans and many points in between. In addition to comparing national aspirations with EC goals and deadlines he has noted not just the infrastructure projects required to create the connectivity for traded market development, but equally importantly the political will, cultural acceptance of traded markets and the commercial appetite. Clearly to achieve the vision of the Gas Target Model there is certainly ‘much left to do’. In terms of assessing the stage of development of the various hubs, Patrick presents not only an update of his own quantitative and subjective measures but also incorporates the work of other relevant surveys and academic analyses. Based on this substantial synthesis, the results, both intuitively and analytically compelling, highlight the limited progress made by other hubs in ‘catching up with’ the Dutch and British hubs.

China’s Future Generation 2.0. Assessing the Maximum Potential for Renewable Power Sources in China to 2050 / William Chandler, Holly Gwin, Lin Ruosida, Wang Yanjia. Energy Transition Research Institute (Entri) ; WWF, November 215, 48 p. http://www.worldwildlife.org/publications/china-s-future-generation-2-0

The report models China’s electric power future out to 2050. The power sector scenarios in this report are built using a refined and expanded version of China Grid 8760 Model, which simulates hour-by-hour power supply and demand from the present through 2050.

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