Energie : papiers de recherche moissonnés (18 décembre 2015)

Coal medium-term market report / IEA. Paris : OECD, Dec. 2015, 166 p. http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/energy/medium-term-coal-market-report-2015_mtrcoal-2015-en

Although it has received less attention than the plunge in oil prices since mid-2014, the drop in coal prices has had a profound impact on global energy markets. Underpinning the weakness in coal prices is the decline in coal consumption in China for the first time this century, while pledges to reduce CO2 emissions made by dozens of countries ahead of the UN climate negotiations in Paris in December 2015 are also providing negative sentiment for coal producers. Partly offsetting the gloom is demand from a few populous emerging economies in Asia – particularly India – and the high odds that coal will remain China’s top energy source for several years to come.
Market players are now wondering if coal prices have hit the bottom, how long producers can survive at these levels and when oversupply will be balanced. Whereas the low prices make coal producers struggle, they prove very attractive for power generators despite increasingly strong environmental policies, growing competitiveness of renewables and declining gas prices.
This year’s edition of the IEA’s Medium-Term Coal Market Report presents, for the first time, a Chinese “Peak Coal” case, which explores the factors that could cause coal use in China to enter a structural decline. It also studies the potential impact of such a peak on supply, prices and trade flows. As in past editions, the report analyses recent trends in coal supply, demand and trade; provides forecasts for the next five years, and gives insights on questions that concern industry and policymakers.

The role of money and the financial sector in energy-economy models used for assessing climate policy / H. Pollitta & J.-F. Mercure. Working paper, 10/12/2015, 12 p. http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1512.02912&r=ene

This paper outlines a critical gap in the assessment methodology used to estimate the macroeconomic costs and benefits of climate policy. It shows that the vast majority of models used for assessing climate policy use assumptions about the financial system that sit at odds with the observed reality. In particular, the models’ assumptions lead to ‘crowding out’ of capital, which cause them to show negative impacts from climate policy in virtually all cases. We compare this approach with that of the E3ME model, which follows non-equilibrium economic theory and adopts a more empirical approach. While the non-equilibrium model also has limitations, its treatment of the financial system is more consistent with reality and it shows that green investment need not crowd out investment in other parts of the economy – and may therefore offer an economic stimulus. The implication of this finding is that standard CGE models consistently over-estimate the costs of climate policy in terms of GDP and welfare, potentially by a substantial amount. These findings overly restrict the range of possible emission pathways accessible using climate policy from the viewpoint of the decision-maker, and may also lead to misleading information used for policy making. Improvements in both modelling approaches should be sought with some urgency – both to provide a better assessment of potential climate policy and to improve understanding of the dynamics of the global financial system more generally.

Development of a dispatch model of the European power system for coupling with a long-term foresight energy model / Jacques Després. Grenoble : PACTE, équipe EDDEN, December 2015, 37 p. (cahier de recherche n°4/2015) http://hal.univ-grenoble-alpes.fr/hal-01245554

Renewable sources of electricity production are strongly increasing in many parts of the world. The production costs are going down quickly, thus accelerating the deployment of new solar and wind electricity generation. In the long-term, these variable sources of electricity could represent a high share of the power system. However, long-term foresight energy models have difficulties describing precisely the integration challenges of Variable Renewable Energy Sources (VRES) such as wind or solar. They just do not represent the short-term technical constraints of the power sector. The objective of this paper is to show a new approach of the representation of the challenges of variability in the long-term foresight energy model POLES (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems). We develop a short-term optimization model for the power sector operation, EUCAD (European Unit Commitment And Dispatch) and we couple it to POLES year after year. The direct coupling, with bi-directional exchanges of information, brings technical precision to the long-term coherence of energy scenarios.

Energy Trading at a Crossroads, Oxford Energy Forum, special Issue, n° 103, 48 p. http://www.oxfordenergy.org/2015/12/oxford-energy-forum-special-issue-103/

Energy trading in Europe is on the verge of a fundamental transformation. The implementation of a host of new regulations: the European Market Infrastructure Regulation (EMIR), the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID), the Markets in Financial Instruments Regulation (MiFIR), the Market Abuse Regulation (MAR), the Capital Requirements Regulation (CRR), and the Capital Requirements Directive IV (CRD IV) will have profound implications for how international oil companies, trading houses, brokerage firms, investment banks, price-reporting agencies, and futures exchanges do business. While there is a consensus among the contributors to this Forum that the new regulations will change the landscape by increasing the complexity of the trading business and the cost of compliance, as well as increasing reporting and capital requirements, there remains much uncertainty as to whether these new regulations will achieve their intended objectives. Of particular concern are the unintended consequences of some of these regulations in terms of: reducing market liquidity, reducing the number of market players, the risks of regulatory arbitrage, and increasing the cost of hedging.

Un habitat plus compact et moins énergivore : pour quels coûts de construction ? Commissariat général au développement durable, décembre 2015, 32 p. (études et documents ; n° 135) http://www.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/Un-habitat-plus-compact-et-moins.html

Les objectifs ambitieux de construction de logements neufs du gouvernement posent la question des coûts des nouvelles normes environnementales. L’étude quantifie les grands facteurs explicatifs des coûts de construction des logements à partir de l’enquête sur le prix de revient des logements neufs (PRLN), en s’intéressant aux surcoûts de construction de logements plus denses, et plus efficaces en matière de consommation énergétique. Les surcoûts de construction de bâtiments plus denses apparaissent compensés par les économies d’échelle : doubler le nombre d’étages conduit à des surcoûts au m² de l’ordre de 4% tandis que doubler la surface construite sur une même parcelle permet de diminuer le coût au m² de 7%. Les coûts de construction apparaissent, de plus, sensibles à la densité de population de la commune dans laquelle les logements sont construits. Le respect des labels énergétiques récents affecte également les prix de construction. Le passage de logements construits selon la réglementation thermique 2005 à des logements respectant le label bâtiments basse consommation (BBC), a entraîné, pour des projets de construction comparables, des augmentations de coûts de construction estimées ici à environ 14% dans l’individuel et 9% dans le collectif. Ces surcoûts apparaissent cependant modérés dans la mesure où ils seront compensés par la diminution de la facture énergétique des ménages occupants.

Has the North Sea enetered a late-life crisis? / Virendra Chauhan, Maarten van Mourik & Amrita Sen. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, December 2015, 14 p. https://www.oxfordenergy.org/2015/12/has-the-north-sea-entered-a-late-life-crisis/

Each oil price crash has brought with it talks of decommissioning, and of bringing down the curtain on North Sea production once and for all. Despite this grim outlook, caution must be taken not to tarnish the whole region with a single brush. The outlooks for the UK and for Norway differ quite substantially. At present, both countries are benefiting from the fruits of several years of high and stable prices, which filled producers with a false sense of confidence, allowing them to chase projects at seemingly any cost. However, one year of low oil prices has transformed the outlook. The UK will benefit in the next two years from new project start-ups and from producers shifting capital to maximize short-term output to manage the downturn. But beyond the short-term respite, UK production is likely to fall as decline rates accelerate, and as the investment, along with the expertise, of IOCs exits the basin. Oil and Gas UK have already estimated that the industry has been behind on areas such as maintaining critical equipment and infrastructure over the past four to five years. The UK has also seen some 5500 jobs cuts since late 2014 and exploration activity has fallen sharply…

Citer ce billet
Danièle Revel (2015, 18 décembre). Energie : papiers de recherche moissonnés (18 décembre 2015). Veille énergie climat. Consulté le 18 avril 2024, à l’adresse https://doi.org/10.58079/oc3u

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