Energie : papiers de recherche moissonnés (6/01/2016)

Naturaleza en movimiento : politicas de promocion para las nuevas energias renovables / G. Bersalli, A.O. Pereira, J. Feres & E. Reis. Integracion & Comercio, vol. 19, n° 39, dec. 2015, pp. 213-225 http://www19.iadb.org/intal/icom/notas/39-30/

Los países de la región multiplicaron los programas de estímulo para el desarrollo de las nuevas energías renovables, como la solar y la eólica, entre otras. Cuáles son sus ventajas y desventajas. Qué resultados tuvieron los incentivos brindados al sector. Cómo fortalecer la integración energética del continente y atraer inversiones.

Markets and long-term contracts: The case of Russian gas supplies to Europe / Chi Kong Chyong. Energy Policy research Group, Dec. 2015, 77 p. (EPRG working paper ; 1524) http://www.eprg.group.cam.ac.uk/eprg-working-paper-1524/

Different hydrocarbon producer sales strategies have widely divergent implications for the value of Gazprom’s gas exports to Europe. In particular, hydrocarbon producers have commonly pursued two alternative sales strategies: (i) pure commodity production (border sales) and (ii) integrated supply, trading and marketing (ISTM). The impact of these two strategies on Gazprom’s export profits are examined under three sets of scenarios: (a) the possible entry of low-cost producers, (b) oil price dynamics and (c) the future of LTCs (pricing and volume structure). We also analysed how Statoil shifted its sales strategy in light of structural changes in European gas markets and conclude that the company began employing an ISTM strategy when the market in North-west Europe became liquid.
Thus, when a market is mature, with an increasing number of buyers, the best sales strategy for a large hydrocarbon producer should be based on flexibility and increasing its use of market trading to maximise the value of its commodity. We conclude that an optimal export strategy for Gazprom should involve both a substantial and increasing portion of uncommitted volumes that can be traded in markets (gas hubs) and, if needed, some form of bilateral forward contract with a minimum take-or-pay level to secure infrastructure finance.

Electricity markets: Designing auctions where suppliers have uncertain costs / Pär Holmberg and Frank Wolak. Energy Policy research Group, 2015, 38 p. (EPRG working paper ; 1523) http://www.eprg.group.cam.ac.uk/eprg-working-paper-1523/

We analyse how the market design influences the bidding behaviour in multi-unit auctions, such as wholesale electricity markets. It is shown that competition improves for increased market transparency and we identify circumstances where the auctioneer prefers uniform to discriminatory pricing. We note that political risks could significantly worsen competition in hydro-dominated markets. It would be beneficial for such markets to have clearly defined contingency plans for extreme market situations.

Power-generation system vulnerability and adaptation to changes in climate and water resources / Michelle T. H. van Vliet, DavidWiberg, Sylvain Leduc and Keywan Riahi, Nature Climate Change, published online 4 Jan. 2016 http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2903.html

Hydropower and thermoelectric power together contribute 98% of the worlds electricity generation at present. These power-generating technologies both strongly depend on water availability, and water temperature for cooling also plays a critical role for thermoelectric power generation. Climate change and resulting changes in water resources will therefore affect power generation while energy demands continue to increase with economic development and a growing world population. Here we present a global assessment of the vulnerability of the worlds current hydropower and thermoelectric power-generation system to changing climate and water resources, and test adaptation options for sustainable water–energy security during the twenty-first century. Using a coupled hydrological–electricity modelling framework with data on 24,515 hydropower and 1,427 thermoelectric power plants, we show reductions in usable capacity for 61–74% of the hydropower plants and 81–86% of the thermoelectric power plants worldwide for 2040–2069. However, adaptation options such as increased plant efficiencies, replacement of cooling system types and fuel switches are effective alternatives to reduce the assessed vulnerability to changing climate and freshwater resources. Transitions in the electricity sector with a stronger focus on adaptation, in addition to mitigation, are thus highly recommended to sustain water–energy security in the coming decades.

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