Energie : papiers de recherche moissonnés (14/01/2016)

Electricity markets are broken: can they be fixed? / Malcolm Keay. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, Jan. 2016, 39 p. (OIES paper : EL 17) http://www.oxfordenergy.org/2016/01/electricity-markets-are-broken-can-they-be-fixed/

This paper argues that electricity markets in Europe are broken. The increasing penetration of subsidised, zero marginal cost, intermittent generation has distorted prices to the extent that they can no longer give effective signals for investment or operation. The problem is increasingly being recognised but there is no consensus on the solution. The paper considers a number of options; it concludes that a serious debate needs to get under way now if we are to develop sustainable markets for a low carbon future.

European Union gas market development / Tobias Baltensperger, Rudolf M. Füchslin, Pius Krütli, John Lygeros. Zürich : ETH ; University of Applied Sciences, Dec. 2015, 37 p. http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1512.05343&r=ene

The recently announced Energy Union by the European Commission is the most recent step in a series of developments aiming at integrating the European Union’s (EU) gas markets in order to increase social welfare and security of gas supply. Based on simulations with a spatial partial equilibrium model, we analyze the changes in consumption, prices, and social welfare up to 2022 induced by the infrastructure expansions planned for this period. We find that wholesale prices decrease slightly and converge at Western European levels, the potential of suppliers to exert market power decreases significantly, particularly in the Baltic countries and Finland which are the most exposed countries today, and consumer surplus increases by 15.9% in the EU…

Sector-level approach to estimating mobilised private climate finance : The case of renewable energy / Raphaël Jachnik & Victor Raynaud. Paris : OECD, Dec. 2015, 47 p. http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/environment/sector-level-approach-to-estimating-mobilised-private-climate-finance_5jrp02jnzl35-en

In order to help address climate finance-related information needs under the UNFCCC, this paper explores the extent to which currently-available secondary data make it possible to estimate private finance mobilised by developed countries for climate action in developing countries. This is done by testing the implementation of two approaches: the first one based on an analysis of an investment-related commercial database, and the second one based on the use of publicly-available private finance leverage ratios. Due to data constraints, the focus is on renewable energy as a sub-set of climate mitigation activities. Volumes of private finance estimated as mobilised under the first approach are very partial, due to limitations of the database used, while the second approach results in highly inaccurate extrapolations due to a current lack of empirically-robust publicly-available private finance leverage ratios. These findings highlight the need for improved primary data collection, in particular by public climate finance providers on private co-finance, building upon the recent progress already achieved by a number of bilateral and multilateral development finance institutions. Further, very careful and transparent use should be made of leverage ratios, as they are highly sensitive to both the underlying calculation methods (e.g. in terms of attribution of mobilised private finance among public actors involved), as well as to core characteristics of public finance that result from varying mandates of development agencies and institutions. In any case, amounts of private finance mobilised by public actors and interventions (and ratios that can be calculated on such basis) should not necessarily be interpreted as reflecting their respective abilities to achieve effective and transformational climate action, which requires monitoring of impacts over time.

The energy-economic growth relationship: a new insight from the EROI perspective / Florian Fizaine et Victor Court. Chaire économie du climat, Paris Dauphine, 8/01/2016, 32 p. (WP #2016-01) http://www.chaireeconomieduclimat.org/publications/initiatives-de-recherche/wp-2016-01the-energy-economic-growth-relationship-a-new-insight-from-the-eroi-perspective/

In the present paper we relate the recent estimations of the historical (1800-2011) global EROI of fossil fuels production performedby Court and Fizaine (2015) to the tremendous increase in GrossWorld Production that the global economy has encountered duringthe same period. We first show that on this entire period of study,there is a power inverse relationship that exists between the averageprice of aggregated fossil energy and its EROI…

Fiscal Stabilization in Oil and Gas Contracts: Evidence and Implications / Mario Mansour &  Carole Nakhle. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies,  Jan. 2016, 36 p. (OIES paper; SP 37) http://www.oxfordenergy.org/2016/01/fiscal-stabilization-in-oil-and-gas-contracts-evidence-and-implications/

The objective of this is to analyse how contractual stabilization devices have evolved since the late 1990s, based on a survey of 20 countries and a review of the literature and evidence on stabilization clauses. Although fiscal stability is a commonly cited attribute of a desirable upstream petroleum regime, one of the commonly observed features of existing regimes is the lack of stability. The paper studies the major triggers that push host governments to revise the fiscal terms to which they originally agreed with investors; amongst various economic and political factors, one of the obvious drivers is the oil price. Chasing the price of oil, however, is a burdensome and inefficient strategy, as oil is an internationally traded commodity where short-term price volatility is the norm. The paper’s three broad conclusions include: First, classical stabilization models have not been successful in practice; Second, the more modern clauses are more likely to treat changes in fiscal terms symmetrically, and may be equally beneficial to governments and oil companies; Third, modern stabilization clauses can allow policymakers to consider the overall tax system and its impact on revenue and growth, without worrying about the specific impact on the oil and gas sector, and without penalizing investors in the sector. Fiscal stability clauses in developing countries will remain a key feature of contractual agreements and oil and gas laws for years to come. However, the effectiveness of the more modern clauses in achieving the desired outcome remains as questionable as that of previous stability models, particularly in countries which continue to lack the administrative capability to enforce these mechanisms, and where government policy in general and investment laws and the judiciary in particular lack credibility.

Chiffres clés des énergies renouvelables – Édition 2015. Commissariat général au développement durable, décembre 2015, 64 p. (Repères) http://www.statistiques.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/publications/p/2369/969/chiffres-cles-energies-renouvelables-edition-2015.html

L’Union européenne s’était fixé l’objectif de satisfaire 20 % de sa consommation finale brute d’énergie par les énergies renouvelables à l’horizon 2020 ; cette ambition s’était traduite par une cible de 23 % pour la France. Ces objectifs ont été confortés cette année par de nouvelles cibles à 2030. D’une part, l’Union européenne a décidé, dans son nouveau Paquet Énergie-Climat 2030, d’atteindre à cette date 27 % d’énergies renouvelables dans son bouquet énergétique. D’autre part, la France a gravé, dans la loi relative à la transition énergétique pour la croissance verte adoptée le 22 juillet, l’objectif de porter la part des énergies renouvelables dans sa consommation brute à 32 % en 2030.

Danièle Revel

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