Energie : papiers de recherche moissonnés (20/01/2016)

Electricité renouvelable, sécurité d’approvisionnement et marché de capacité. Une comparaison des solutions avancées des deux côtés du Rhin / Tiphanie Fontaine. Chaire Economie du climat, paris Dauphine, janvier 2016, 26 p. (Information et débats ; n° 42) http://www.chaireeconomieduclimat.org/publications/info-debats/id-42-electricite-renouvelable-securite-dapprovisionnement-et-marche-de-capacite/

La production d’électricité en France et en Allemagne tend à évoluer vers plus d’énergies renouvelables qui sont par nature intermittentes. Les nouvelles réglementations environnementales et la fin de vie de certaines centrales vieillissantes laissent entrevoir des fermetures d’installations dans les prochaines années, notamment celles fortement modulables utilisées pour assumer les périodes de pointe et combler l’intermittence des énergies renouvelables. Par ailleurs, la demande totale d’électricité devient de plus en plus stagnante, alors que la demande de pointe en France ne cesse de croître. Enfin, le marché Energy-Only, marché actuel d’échange de l’électricité, ne donne parfois pas un prix permettant de couvrir les coûts fixes des moyens de production. Tous ces éléments augmentent le risque de pénurie d’électricité en période de pointe de consommation…

Gazprom – Is 2016 the Year for a Change of Pricing Policy in Europe? / James Henderson. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, Jan. 2016, 151 p. (Oxford energy comment) http://www.oxfordenergy.org/2016/01/gazprom-is-2016-the-year-for-a-change-of-pricing-strategy-in-europe/

Gazprom’s pivot to Asia has stalled and it must now continue to focus on Europe as its key export market. However, stagnant demand and increasing availability of LNG supply are set to put the company’s market share under pressure from 2016. To date Gazprom has responded to competitive threats by making reactive adjustments to its pricing methodology and contract structures, but if it is to defend its export volumes in future it may have to take a more proactive stance. This Comment discusses the competitive position of Russian gas in a new lower price environment and examines whether a more actively competitive strategy can benefit both Gazprom and the Russian government in the short and long term. From a number of commercial and political perspectives the logical commercial answer could be yes, but only if Gazprom adopts a new contract model and also commits to trading on European hubs at spot prices in a more wholehearted fashion. Evidence for gradual moves in this direction are emerging and could accelerate in 2016, and although we do not expect Gazprom to actively catalyse a price war we do believe that market forces could lead to this outcome as a logical conclusion for a low-cost producer with significant supply flexibility.

Under the Mountains: Kurdish Oil and Regional Politics / Robin Mills. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, Jan. 2016, 49 p. (OIES Paper: WPM 63) http://www.oxfordenergy.org/2016/01/under-the-mountains-kurdish-oil-and-regional-politics/

The development of major oil and gas reserves in the autonomous Kurdish Region of Iraq (KRI) is a recent phenomenon which has attracted major media and industry interest. It represents the rare case, in recent history, of the discovery of a large new onshore conventional petroleum province. The Kurdistan Region Government (KRG)’s formulation of its own oil policy presents an important case of sub-national authority over the natural resource sector, which may be relevant to other oil-producing countries or territories. The development of Kurdish hydrocarbons has major political implications for the KRI, its possible independence, for regional politics and energy security of its neighbours. This paper outlines the history and development of the KRI’s hydrocarbon resources, the economic, legal, and political issues and debates, and the wider implications of Kurdish oil and gas, as well as some lessons for other comparable regions.

Gas Pricing: China’s Challenges and IEA Experience. Paris : IEA, Dec. 2015, 120 p. http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/energy/gas-pricing-china-s-challenges-and-iea-experience_9789264247437-en

China will play a positive role in the global development of gas, the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Executive Director, Maria Van der Hoeven has said in Beijing on 11 September, 2012 when launching a new IEA report: Gas Pricing and Regulation, China’s challenges and IEA experiences. In line with its aim to meet growing energy demand while shifting away from coal, China has set an ambitious goal of doubling its use of natural gas from 2011 levels by 2015. Prospects are good for significant new supplies – both domestic and imported, conventional and unconventional – to come online in the medium-term, but notable challenges remain, particularly concerning gas pricing and the institutional and regulatory landscape. While China’s circumstances are, in many respects unique, some current issues are similar to those a number of IEA countries have faced. This report highlights some key challenges China faces in its transition to greater reliance on natural gas, then explores in detail relevant experiences from IEA countries, particularly in the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and the United States as well as the European Union (EU). Preliminary suggestions about how lessons learned in other countries could be applied to China’s situation are offered as well. The aim of this report is to provide stakeholders in China with a useful reference as they consider decisions about the evolution of the gas sector in their country.

The long-Run Equilibrium Impact of Intermittent Renewables on Wholesale Electricity Prices / David Newbery. Cambridge : Energy Policy Research Groupe, 2016, 19 p. (EPRG ;  1601) http://www.eprg.group.cam.ac.uk/eprg-working-paper-1601/

High levels of low variable cost intermittent renewables lower wholesale electricity prices, and the depression of these prices could legitimately be recovered from consumers, preferably through capacity payments. Given that renewables are frequently subsidized for their learning benefits and carbon reduction, this paper asks what part of these subsidies should be recovered from final consumers. In long-run equilibrium, renewables have no impact on the number of hours peaking capacity runs, and its impact is to displace largely baseload capacity. The fall in competitive prices is considerably less than the fall in fossil operating costs and provides a case for only a modest share of total subsidies to be charged to electricity consumers. The paper quantifies the amount that can legitimately be charged.

Danièle Revel

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