Climat : papiers de recherche moissonnés (10 février 2016)

Regional Low-Emission Pathways from Global Models / H. van Soest, L. Aleluia Reis, D. van Vuuren, C. Bertram, L. Drouet, J. Jewell, E. Kriegler, G. Luderer, K. Riahi, J. Rogelj, M. Tavoni, M. den Elzen, A. Awasthy, K. Calvin, P. Capros, L. Clarke, M. Colombier, T. Fei, A. Garg, F. Guedes, M. Imperio, M. Kainuma, J. Kejun, A. C. Köberle, P. Kolp, V. Krey, A. Kitous, P. Leonidas, A. Lucena, T. Masui, L. Nogueira, R. Pierfederici, B. Saveyn, R. Schaeffer, F. Sha, B. Shoai, P. R. Shukla, T. Spencer, A. Szklo, H. Waisman. Milan : Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, 2015, 56 p. (Nota di Lavoro 110.2015)

Governments worldwide have agreed that international climate policy should aim to limit the increase of global mean temperature to less than 2oC with respect to pre-industrial levels. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the emission reductions and related energy system changes in various countries in pathways consistent with the 2oC target. We synthesize and provide an overview of the national and regional information contained in different scenarios from various global models published over the last few years, as well as yet unpublished scenarios submitted by modelling teams participating in the MILES project (Modelling and Informing Low-Emission Strategies). We find that emissions in the mitigation scenarios are significantly reduced in all regions compared to the baseline without climate policies. The regional cumulative CO2 emissions show on average a 76% reduction between the baseline and 450 scenario. The 450 scenarios show a reduction of primary energy demand in all countries of roughly 30-40% compared to the baseline. In the baseline scenario, the contribution of low-carbon energy technology remains around 15%, i.e. similar as today. In the mitigation scenario, these numbers are scaled up rapidly towards 2050. Looking at air quality, sulphur dioxide and black carbon emissions are strongly reduced as a co-benefit of greenhouse gas emission reductions, in both developing and developed countries. However, black carbon emissions increase in countries that strongly rely on bioenergy to reach mitigation targets. Concerning energy security, energy importing countries generally experience a decrease in net-energy imports in mitigation scenarios compared to the baseline development, while energy exporters experience a loss of energy export revenues.

Mesurer le bien-être et la soutenabilité, Revue de l’OFCE, n° 145, 2016

Sommaire : Au-delà du PIB, en-deçà du PIB : mesurer le bien-être territorial dans l’OCDE ; La qualité de vie dans les territoires français ; Diagnostics de qualité de vie : prendre en compte les préférences des populations ; La mesure du bien-être territorial : travailler sur ou avec les territoires ? ; Vers une économie authentiquement circulaire : Réflexions sur les fondements d’un indicateur de circularité ; Les indicateurs de l’économie circulaire en Chine ;  Mesurer l’économie circulaire à l’échelle territoriale : Une analyse systémique de la gestion des matières organiques à Bruxelles

Qualitative Scenario Building for Post-carbon Cities / Margaretha Breil, Cristina Cattaneo, Katie Johnson. Milan : Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, 2015, 36 p. (Nota di lavoro ; 2015.102)

In defining the transition towards a post-carbon future, understanding the needs and determinants for policy priorities in different types of cities will help tailor a common roadmap that can be adopted under various socio-economic contexts. This paper provides an analysis of results collected in a participatory scenario building exercise undertaken within a research project on post-carbon urban futures (Post-Carbon Cities of Tomorrow, POCACITO). It is based on local workshops organised in nine European case study cities, which employed a three-step methodology consisting of an initial assessment, vision building and backcasting exercises. All exercises had a strong focus on the inclusion of stakeholders. Comparison of outcomes from the visions and scenarios resulting from these workshops provides insights on the drivers that determine different priorities in policy action for cities working to transition toward post-carbon futures. Results from the case study cities show similar elements in the strategies proposed by stakeholders, focusing primarily on urban projects for energy efficiency and the transition to non-fossil energy resources. However, the specific mix of strategies envisaged for each city has been influenced by local issues, such as the geographical location or the size, as well as different points of departure with regards to emission reductions and sustainability strategies already achieved.

Development, Climate Change Adaptation, and Maladaptation: Some Econometric Evidence / Francesco Bosello, Shouro Dasgupta. Milan: Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, 2015, 24 p. (Nota di lavoro ; 2015.097)

This paper examines the determinants of climate related disasters and attempts to estimate the presence of adaptive capacity in terms of per capita income and population density elasticities. We find evidence of adaptive capacity in a “weak” form both in terms of income and population density elasticities over our entire sample. That is, damages are in fact increasing with income and population, but less than proportionally. There is also evidence of countries improving their adaptive capacity over the long run, but of maladaptation occurring in the short run. Repeating the analysis splitting the sample by per-capita income levels, we find that higher income countries show adaptive capacity in a “strong form”, i.e. damages decrease with GDP, while lower income countries highlight exactly the opposite behavior. Finally, using Granger causality tests for panel data, we find evidence of increase in GDP per capita Granger causing climate related damages for lower income countries, but not in higher income countries.

Making China the Transition to a Low-Carbon Economy: Key Challenges and Responses / ZhongXiang Zhang. Milan : Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, 2015, 29 p. (Nota di lavoro ; 2015.095)

China has realized that for its own sake and from the international community’s perspective, it cannot afford to continue along the conventional path of encouraging economic growth at the expense of the environment. Accordingly, the country has placed ecological goals at the same level of priority as policies on economic, political, cultural and social development. Specifically, to meet the grand goal involves not only capping China’s nationwide coal consumption to let it peak before 2020 and carbon emissions peak around 2030, but also putting in place a variety of flagship programs and initiatives, prices and policies. This paper argues that the 2030 carbon emissions peak goal is ambitious but achievable and concludes by arguing why China’s anti-pollution outcomes this time might be different from the previous ones.

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Danièle Revel (10 février 2016). Climat : papiers de recherche moissonnés (10 février 2016). Veille énergie climat. Consulté le 20 juillet 2024 à l’adresse

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