Energie : papiers de recherche moissonnés (12/02/2016)

BP’s energy outlook 2016 : outlook to 2035. BP, Feb. 2016, 98 p. http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/energy-outlook-2035.html

Lire à ce propos : Analysis: How BP’s energy outlook has changed after the Paris agreement, Carbon brief, 12/02/2016 http://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-the-bp-energy-outlook-has-changed-after-paris

Long-Run Energy Use and the Efficiency Paradox / J. Abrell, S. Rausch, and H. Schwerin. CER-ETH – Center of Economic Research at ETH Zurich, January 2016, 44 p. (Working Paper 16/227) http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eth:wpswif:16-227

We develop a theory of vintage capital and energy use in businesses and households to measure the response of energy use to energy- saving technological change. Calibration of the model’s balanced growth path to U.S. post-WWII data shows that energy efficiency increased on average by about three percent per year. Higher energy efficiency increased rather than reduced energy use as equipment- specific technological progress enhanced energy use by more than higher energy prices reduced it. The energy rebound in response to technological progress (higher energy prices) was 125 percent of (reduced energy use by 30 percent below) hypothetical energy savings.

Revisiting the emissions-energy-trade nexus: Evidence from the newly industrializing / Khalid Ahmed and Muhammad Shahbaz and Phouphet Kyophilavong. Sukkur Institute of Busnies Administration Sukkur, Pakistan, COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Lahore, Pakistan, Faculty of Economics and Business Management, National University of Laos, Jan. 2016, 47 p. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/68680/

This paper applies Pedroni’s panel cointegration approach to explore the causal relationship between trade openness, carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption and economic growth for the panel of newly industrialized economies (i.e. Brazil, India, China and South Africa) over the period of 1970–2013. Our panel cointegration estimation results found majority of the variables cointegrated and confirm the long-run association among the variables. The Granger causality test indicates bi-directional causality between carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption. A uni-directional causality is found running from trade openness to carbon dioxide emission and energy consumption, and economic growth to carbon dioxide emissions. The results of causality analysis suggest that the trade liberalization in newly industrialized economies induces higher energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. Furthermore, the causality results are checked using an innovative accounting approach which includes forecast-error variance decomposition test and impulse response function. The long-run coefficients are estimated using fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) method and results conclude that the trade openness and economic growth reduce carbon dioxide emissions in the long-run. The results of FMOLS test sound the existence of environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis. It means, trade liberalization induces carbon dioxide emission with increased national output, but it offsets that impact in the long-run with reduced level of carbon dioxide emissions.

The Supply-side Eects of Energy Efficiency Labels / David Comerford, Ian Lange & Mirko Moro. Colorado School of Mines, Jan. 2016, 27 p. (Working Paper 2016-01) http://econbus.mines.edu/working-papers/wp201601.pdf

We build on research documenting demand-side consequences of energy-efficiency labels for buildings by testing for a supply-side response. We exploit a natural experiment to test whether the introduction of mandatory energy labels for residential homes influenced investment in home energy efficiency. From 2008, vendors and lettors in the UK were required to publish a property’s energy performance certificate (EPC). The EPC evaluates home energy efficiency overlaying a color-coded letter grade (from a green A to red G, respectively) on a pre-existent 0-100 point scale, the Standard Assessment Procedure (SAP) score. We hypothesize that the salient color letter grades will serve as targets when home owners are deciding the scale of investment to make in home energy efficiency. Consistent with this hypothesis, we find fewer homes just below, and more homes just above, the D grade threshold in the treatment years relative to the control years. This clustering is higher for homes that were traded after the EPC requirement was in effect. We conclude that there is a supply-side response to energy-efficiency labels.

Cross-Country Electricity Trade, Renewable Energy and European Transmission Infrastructure Policy / J. Abrell and S. Rausch. CER-ETH – Center of Economic Research at ETH Zurich, January 2016, 46 p. (Working Paper 16/229) http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eth:wpswif:16-229

This paper develops a multi-country multi-sector general equilibrium model, integrating high-frequency electricity dispatch and trade decisions, to study the effects of electricity transmission infrastructure (TI) expansion and renewable energy (RE) penetration in Europe for gains from trade and carbon dioxide emissions in the power sector. TI can benefit or degrade environmental outcomes, depending on RE penetration: it complements emissions abatement by mitigating dispatch problems associated with volatile and spatially dispersed RE but also promotes higher average generation from low-cost coal if RE production is too low. Against the backdrop of European decarbonization and planned TI expansion, we find that emissions increase for current and targeted year-2020 levels of RE production and decrease for year-2030 targets. Enhanced TI yields sizeable gains from trade that depend positively on RE penetration, without creating large adverse impacts on regional equity.

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