Energie : papiers de recherche moissonnés (24/02/2016)

Saudi-Russia Production Accord: The Freeze Before the Thaw? / Bassam Fattouh, James Henderson and Amrita Sen. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, Feb. 2016, 10 p. (OIES energy comment) http://www.oxfordenergy.org/2016/02/saudi-russia-production-accord-the-freeze-before-the-thaw/

The accord reached by Saudi Arabia and Russia, along with Qatar and Venezuela, in Doha on February 16th has been widely seen as effectively an agreement to do nothing. The four countries have accepted a freeze in production based on January 2016 levels, but for most of them (with the exception of Saudi Arabia) this effectively means the ability to maintain oil output at or near full capacity. The impact on the oil market balance will be minimal, especially in the short term. Furthermore, significant caveats were included in the Doha agreement, in particular that it would only take effect if other OPEC and non-OPEC countries agree to co-operate. Saudi oil minister Al-Naimi also added that his country would ‘continue to satisfy customer demand’ for oil. Indeed, the reaction of the oil market, which saw prices rise by more than 10% in anticipation of the meeting but then fall back by over half that amount after its conclusion, underlined the ostensibly disappointing outcome. However, despite the minimal impact of the deal on market balances, the reaching of an accord between the largest OPEC and non-OPEC producers does suggest some interesting conclusions for the oil market over the next few months, as subtle shifts in negotiating tactics have started to emerge.

Medium-Term Oil Market Report / International Energy Agency. Paris : OECD, 2016, 127 p. http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/energy/medium-term-oil-market-report-2016_oilmar-2016-en

In the 2016 edition of its Medium-Term Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency analyses the key factors impacting the supply and demand for oil from today out to 2021. These include: high-cost supply resilience from light, tight oil producers in the United States; the lifting of nuclear sanctions on Iran; the impact on demand of lower oil prices – including recent subsidy changes in the Middle East; and the timing of the oil market’s return to balance. This report is published during one of the most fascinating periods in oil market history.

Ownership and enterprise performance in the Russian oil industry / Nat Moser,  Post-Communist Economies, vol. 28, n° 1, pp. 72-86 http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/routledg/cpce/2016/00000028/00000001/art00005

This article examines enterprise performance in Russian oil companies between 1992 and 2012. The analysis is based upon longitudinal trend output data, and distinguishes between four different types of owners – outsider private, insider private, federal state and regional state. In comparison with previous studies which considered just 1999–2004, and identified outsider private companies as the best performers, this article finds that over the longer period 1992–2012 federal state and insider private-owned companies actually performed best. The explanation for this relates to institutions and the business environment.

Can Germany’s renewable energy revolution be replicated in the United States? / Beate G. Liepert, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 18/02/2016 http://thebulletin.org/can-germanys-renewable-energy-revolution-be-replicated-united-states9169

When one thinks about solar energy, the first image that comes to mind may be a Californian field of photovoltaic panels. But cloudy Germany, not sunny California, has the advantage when it comes to solar electricity, with a capacity of 38 gigawatts compared to a mere 11 in the Golden State as of 2015…

WTO and Renewable Energy: Lessons from the Case Law / Paolo Davide Farah andElena Cima, Journal of World Trade, vol. 49, n° 6, December 2015, pp. 1103-1116 http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2704453

This contribution illustrates some unresolved issues and tensions that characterize the way the WTO deals with renewable energy subsidies. Indeed, the indisputable urgency to address the negative impacts of climate change on the one hand, and the use of subsidies to boost and support a country’s renewable energy sector on the other, provide momentum to better define the legal framework offered by the World Trade Organization (WTO). It is fundamental to ascertain whether the current framework represents an adequate model to address renewable energy subsidies, or whether a more flexible interpretation of WTO Agreements toward sustainable development and the protection of the environment should be adopted instead. In view of that, this paper carefully investigates the evolution of the WTO subsidies disciplines, focusing in particular on the approach of the WTO towards renewable energy subsidies. This article is divided in three sections. The first one offers an overview of WTO disputes involving subsidies in the renewable energy sector, the second one focuses on the recent decisions in the Canada – Renewable Energy and Canada – Feed-in Tariff Program disputes and on some important issues they raise, while in the last one we draw our conclusions.

What Drives Oil Prices? Emerging Versus Developed Economies / Knut Are Aastveit, Hilde C. Bjørnland and Leif Anders Thorsrud. Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol 3, n°7, November / December 2015, pp. 1013-1028 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jae.2406/epdf

We explore the role of demand from emerging and developed economies as drivers of the real price of oil. Using a FAVAR model that identifies shocks from different regions of the world, we find that demand from emerging economies (most notably from Asian countries) is more than twice as important as demand from developed countries in accounting for the fluctuations in the real oil price and in oil production. Furthermore, geographical regions respond differently to adverse oil market shocks that drive up oil prices, with Europe and North America being more negatively affected than countries in Asia and South America.Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

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