Energie : papiers de recherche moissonnés (14/03/2016)

Energy Policies of IEA Countries: Canada 2015 / International Energy Agency. Paris : OECD, 2016, 287 p. http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/content/book/9789264243644-en

Canada has continued to harvest its vast natural resources and witnessed a shale revolution alongside rising oil sands production and investment in the energy sector over the past five years. The medium-term outlook for gas/oil production and exports, however, is challenging amid uncertainties around pipeline developments and an era of low prices, abundant global supplies and surging production in the United States, Canada’s main export market…

Delivering future-proof energy infrastructure / Goran Strbac, Ioannis Konstantelos, Michael Pollitt & Richard Green. Report for National Infrastructure Commission, Feb. 2016, 54 p. https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/505221/Future-proof_energy_infrastructure_Imp_Cam_Feb_2016_NIC.PDF

(…) the objective of this report is to bring together available evidence and set out the challenges, opportunities and next steps for facilitating a cost-effective evolution to a lower carbon electricity system

Indian Steam Coal Imports: The Great Equation / Sylvie Cornot-Gandolphe,Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, March 2016, 126 p. (OIES paper: CL 3) https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/indian-steam-coal-imports-great-equation/

Since 2012, Indian steam coal imports have more than doubled, making India the world’s second-largest coal importer after China. With the decline of Chinese import demand since 2014, India has been considered by many to be the last bastion of significant coal import growth. However, India’s government has announced its intention to cease steam coal imports by the end of 2017. Given the general consensus that India’s coal demand will remain robust, these two diverging positions are thus based on differing perceptions of future coal production in India.

This report seeks to establish India’s role in the global steam coal trade through a comprehensive assessment of the ‘coal equation’: supply and demand in relation to India’s coal policy. The report analyzes the major drivers of future coal demand and particularly focuses on the power sector, given its overwhelming share of India’s coal demand. It also looks at the reforms currently underway in the mining sector and their potential to make the sector more efficient, thus facilitating the dramatic growth in production that would be required to make India self-sufficient. The analysis is supplemented by quantitative assessments of steam coal supply and demand to FY2020. The results of these assessments indicate that the government is likely to reach its self-sufficiency goal, but this will be towards the end of the decade, rather than at the end of 2017 as desired. In order to cease steam coal imports, India’s government will specifically need to address constraints relating to the low quality of Indian coal, in addition to resolving transportation and land acquisition issues.

India’s Oil Demand: >On the Verge of ‘Take-Off’? / Amrita Sen & Anupama Sen. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, March 2016, 29 p. (OIES paper ; WPM 65) https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/indias-oil-demand/

Over the last decade, non-OECD oil demand growth, and by extension global oil demand growth, was driven mainly by China, which accounted for half to two-thirds of this growth. However, since the Chinese government embarked on a deliberate policy of rebalancing, the country’s annual demand growth has slowed to under 0.3 mb/d, compared to an average demand growth of over 0.5 mb/d in the 10 years prior to 2013. In this new era of slower Chinese growth, a new contender has emerged: India, which in 2015 was the main driver of non-OECD oil demand growth. In this paper we argue that in addition to the boost from low oil prices, structural and policy-driven changes are underway which could result in India’s oil demand ‘taking off’ in a similar way to China’s during the late 1990s, when Chinese oil demand was at levels roughly equivalent to current Indian oil demand. These changes include: a rise in per capita oil consumption (reflected in rising motorization of the Indian economy), a massive programme of road construction (amounting to 30 km per day), and a push towards increasing the share of manufacturing in GDP by 2022 (which could increase oil consumption by at least a third based on a conservative linear estimate). This paper also examines the implications of a take-off in domestic demand for India’s recently acquired status as a net petroleum product exporter.

Danièle Revel

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