Climat : papiers de recherche moissonnés (30/03/2016)
Building Uncertainty into the Adaptation Cost Estimation in Integrated Assessment Models / Anil Markandya, Enrica De Cian, Laurent Drouet, Josué M. Polanco-Martìnez, Francesco Bosello. Milan : Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, 2016, 32 p. (FEEM nota di lavoro ; 2016.021) http://www.feem.it/userfiles/attach/20163912534NDL2016-021.pdf
This paper proposes an operationally simple and easily generalizable methodology to incorporate climate change damage uncertainty into Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). Uncertainty is transformed into a risk-premium, damage-correction, region-specific factor by extracting damage distribution means and variances from an ensemble of socio economic and climate change scenarios. This risk premium quantifies what society would be willing to pay to insure against the uncertainty of the damages, and it can be considered an add-up to the standard “average damage”. Our computations show the addition to be significant, but highly sensitive to the coefficient of relative risk aversion. Once the climate change damage function incorporates the risk premium into the model, results show a substantial increase in both mitigation and adaptation, reflecting a more conservative attitude by the social planner. Interestingly, adaptation is stimulated more than mitigation in the first half of the century, while the situation reverses afterwards. Over the century, the risk premium correction fosters more mitigation, which doubles, than adaptation, which rises by about 80%.
Modeling Uncertainty in Climate Change: A Multi-Model Comparison / Kenneth Gillingham, William Nordhaus, David Anthoff, Valentina Bosetti, Haewon McJeon, Geoffrey Blanford, Peter Christensen, John Reilly, Paul Sztorc. Milan : Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, 2016, 69 p. (FEEM nota di lavoro ; 2016.013) http://www.feem.it/userfiles/attach/20162291051214NDL2016-013.pdf
The economics of climate change involves a vast array of uncertainties, complicating both the analysis and development of climate policy. This study presents the results of the first comprehensive study of uncertainty in climate change using multiple integrated assessment models. The study looks at model and parametric uncertainties for population, total factor productivity, and climate sensitivity. It estimates the pdfs of key output variables, including CO2 concentrations, temperature, damages, and the social cost of carbon (SCC). One key finding is that parametric uncertainty is more important than uncertainty in model structure. Our resulting pdfs also provide insights on tail events.
Reforming the IPCC’s Assessment of Climate Change Economics / Gabriel Chan, Carlo Carraro, Ottmar Edenhofer, Charles Kolstad, Robert Stavins. Milan : Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, 2016, 23 p. (FEEM nota di lavoro ; 2016.012) http://www.feem.it/userfiles/attach/20162261210564NDL2016-012.pdf
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is broadly viewed as the world’s most legitimate scientific assessment body that periodically assesses the economics of climate change (among many other topics) for policy audiences. However, growing procedural inefficiencies and limitations to substantive coverage have made the IPCC an increasingly unattractive forum for the most qualified climate economists. Drawing on our observations and personal experience working on the most recent IPCC report, published last year, we propose four reforms to the IPCC’s process that we believe will lower the cost for volunteering as an IPCC author: improving interactions between governments and academics, making IPCC operations more efficient, clarifying and strengthening conflict of interest rules, and expanding outreach. We also propose three reforms to the IPCC’s substantive coverage to clarify the IPCC’s role and to make participation as an author more intellectually rewarding: complementing the IPCC with other initiatives, improving the integration of economics with other disciplines, and providing complete data for policymakers to make decisions. Despite the distinct characteristics of the IPCC that create challenges for authors unlike those in any other review body, we continue to believe in the importance of the IPCC for providing the most visible line of public communication between the scholarly community and policymakers.
Adapting to Climate Change: an Analysis under Uncertainty / David García-León. Milan : Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, 2016, 40 p. (FEEM nota di lavoro ; 2016.010) http://www.feem.it/userfiles/attach/2016217113194NDL2016-010.pdf
Climate change is a phenomenon beset with major uncertainties and researchers should include them in Integrated Assessment Models. However, including further dimensions in IAM models comes at a cost. In particular, it makes most of these models suffer from the curse of dimensionality. In this study we benefit from a state-reduced framework to overcome those problems. In an attempt to advance in the modelling of adaptation within IAM models, we apply this methodology to shed some light on how the optimal balance between mitigation and adaptation changes under different stochastic scenarios. We find that stochastic technology growth hardly affects the optimal bundle of mitigation and adaptation whereas uncertainty about the value of climate sensitivity and the possibility of tipping points hitting the system change substantially the composition of the optimal mix as both persuade the risk-averse social planner to invest more in mitigation. Overall, we identify that including uncertainty into the model tends to favour (long-lasting) mitigation with respect to (instantaneous) adaptation. Further research should address the properties of the optimal mix when a stock of adaptation can be built.
Comment agir sur le changement climatique ? : dossier. Variances, la revue des ENSAE Alumni, n° 54, mars 2016, pp. 22-44 https://www.ensae.org/global/gene/link.php?doc_id=1407&fg=1
1 – Le climat et la macroéconomie : comment surmonter le divorce ? / Gaël Giraud
2 – L’acceptabilité sociale des politiques environnementales en France / Eléonore Trigano
3 – Comment financer la transition énergétique ? / Alain Grandjean
4 – Les investisseurs institutionnels face au changement climatique / Joël Prohin
5 – Changement climatique et assurance / Arthur Charpentier, Anne Eyraud-Loisel, Alexis Hannart, Julien Tomas
La dette écologique / Emile Geoffroy et Emma Hooper, Regards croisés sur l’économie, 2015/2 (n° 17), pp. 79-82 https://www.cairn.info/revue-regards-croises-sur-l-economie-2015-2-p-79.htm
Selon le Comité pour l’Annulation de la Dette du Tiers-Monde (CATDM), la dette écologique est la dette contractée par les pays industrialisés envers les autres pays à cause des spoliations passées et présentes de leurs ressources naturelles, auxquelles s’ajoutent la délocalisation des dégradations et la libre disposition de la planète afin d’y déposer les déchets de l’industrialisation. Ainsi, la dette…
Challenges and lessons learned in the preparation of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) / Marie Kurdziel, Thomas Day, Frauke Roeser, Heiner von Lüpke, Lisa Herrmann, Inga Zachow. NewClimate Institute, March 2016, 16 p. http://newclimate.org/2016/03/09/challenges-and-lessons-learned-in-the-preparation-of-intended-nationally-determined-contributions-indcs/
This document presents a synthesis of the main challenges and lessons learned from the preparation process of intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) by Parties to the UNFCCC in the run up to Paris. The challenges and lessons learned from the INDC preparation process hold great relevance for the next steps regarding the implementation and further development of countries’ nationally determined contributions (NDCs), in terms of both clarity and ambition. The report is based on the research NewClimate Institute (NCI) has conducted during the INDC preparation process, including two major surveys with developing country representatives before and after the process. Some examples are given for how to overcome some of the thematic challenges, which are drawn from GIZ´s work on INDC development with more than 30 partner countries.
The Legal Character of the Paris Agreement / Daniel Bodansky, March 2016, 14 p. (to be published in a special issue of the Review of European Community and International Environmental Law (RECIEL) on “The Roads from Paris: Reflections on the 2015 Climate Change Agreement”) http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2735252
From start to finish, the question of legal form or character was central to the Paris negotiations. The Paris agreement is a treaty within the definition of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, but not every provision of the agreement creates a legal obligation. It contains a mix of mandatory and non-mandatory provisions relating to parties’ mitigation contributions, as well as to the other elements of the Durban Platform, including adaptation and finance. One cannot definitively say how much the legal or non-legal character of the agreement’s provisions matters. Making a provision legally binding may provide a greater signal of commitment and greater assurance of compliance. But transparency, accountability, and precision can also make a significant difference, and legal bindingness can be a double-edged sword if it leads states not to participate or to make less ambitious commitments. Thus, the issue of legal bindingness, though important, is only one factor in assessing the significance of the Paris outcome.