Energie : papiers de recherche moissonnés (23/03/2016)

Global Energy Outlook 2015 / Richard G. Newell, Yifei Qian, Daniel Raimi. NBER, March 2016 (Working Paper No. 22075) http://www.nber.org/papers/w22075 – DRAFT

This paper assesses trends in the global energy sector through 2040 by harmonizing multiple projections issued by private, government, and inter-governmental organizations based on methods from “Global Energy Outlooks Comparison: Methods and Challenges” (Newell and Qian 2015). These projections agree that global energy consumption growth in the coming 25 years is likely to be substantial, with the global demand center shifting from Europe and North America to Asia, led by China and India. Most projections show energy demand growing as much or more in absolute terms to 2040 than previous multi-decade periods, although the rate of growth will be slower in percentage terms. Total consumption of fossil fuels grows under most projections, with natural gas gaining market share relative to coal and oil. The North American unconventional gas surge has expanded to tight oil more rapidly than anticipated, with implications for global oil markets that are still unfolding. Renewable electricity sources are also set to expand rapidly, while the prospects for nuclear power are more regionally varied. Global carbon dioxide emissions continue to rise under most projections and, unless additional climate policies are adopted, are more consistent with an expected rise in average global temperature of close to 3°C or more, than international goals of 2°C or less.

Renewable energy in Europe 2016 – Recent growth and knock-on effects. European Environment Agency, 2016 (EEA Report No 4/2016) http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/renewable-energy-in-europe-2016

This report complements the findings shown in the “Trends and Projections in Europe 2015 – Tracking progress towards Europe’s climate and energy targets” report with details about the 2013 renewable energy sources (RES) progress at EU and at country level, and for key RES technologies. Furthermore, it provides approximated estimates for RES development in 2014 and seeks to answer the following key questions: Which fossil energy sources were substituted by the growth of RES consumption since 2005 and what would have been their GHG emissions? How do European RES developments compare against renewable energy transformations occurring in other parts of the world?

Intraday Markets for Power: Discretizing the Continuous Trading? / Karsten Neuhoff, Nolan Ritter, Aymen Salah-Abou-El-Enien and Philippe Vassilopoulos. Cambridge : Energy Policy Research Group, 2016, 21 p. (EPRG Working Paper 1609) http://www.eprg.group.cam.ac.uk/eprg-working-paper-1609/

A fundamental question regarding the design of electricity markets is whether adding auctions to the continuous intraday trading is improving the performance of the market. To approach this question, we assess the experience with the implementation of the 3 pm local auction for quarters in Germany at the European Power Exchange (EPEX SPOT) in December 2014 to assess the impact on trading volumes/liquidity, prices, as well as market depth. We discuss further opportunities and challenges that are linked with a potential implementation of an intraday auction.

How does renewables competition affect forward contracting in electricity markets? / Robert A. Ritz. Cambridge : Energy Policy Research Group, 2016, 10 p. (EPRG Working Paper 1610) http://www.eprg.group.cam.ac.uk/eprg-working-paper-1610/

Higher renewables penetration reduces the incentive of conventional electricity generators to make forward commitments via forward- or retail-market contracts. This can undermine the role of forward contracting in mitigating market power. More renewables raise wholesale electricity prices in states of the world where their capacity utilizaton is low due to intermittency.

The prospects for smart energy prices: observations from 50 years of residential pricing for fixed line telecoms and electricity / Musiliu O. Oseni and Michael G. Pollitt. Cambridge : Energy Policy Research Group, 2016, 26 p. (EPRG Working Paper 1611) http://www.eprg.group.cam.ac.uk/eprg-working-paper-1611/

This study focuses on how energy and communications have evolved over the last 50 years and what we can learn from history in order to examine the prospects for smart energy pricing by 2050. We begin by discussing the nature of energy and telecoms products and why price discrimination should be expected. We then review various business and pricing strategies that have evolved in the two industries. We find that business models for both the telecoms and energy sectors have changed from the traditional services business model (i.e., offering of calls and messages for telecoms, and utility supply services for energy) to more dynamic, integrated and complex business models. These new business models include the managed services provider model, the bundled services model, and the prosumer business model, among others. Similarly, several changes in pricing structure have evolved. There has been a reduction in the number of distanced-based and increasing time-based price differentiation in fixed line telecoms and the abolition of residential floor area-based differentiation in residential electricity pricing. We conclude with a discussion on how the rollout of the next generation of electricity meters (smart and advanced meters) may further shape electricity pricing in the future.

Energy Cooperation and Security in the Eastern Mediterranean: A Seismic Shift towards Peace or Conflict? / Edited by Angelos Giannakopoulos. S. Daniel Abraham Center for International and Regional Studies at Tel Aviv University, Feb. 2016, 132 p. (Research paper ; 8) https://dacenter.tau.ac.il/sites/abraham.tau.ac.il/files/Energy%20Cooperation%20and%20Security%20in%20the%20Eastern%20Mediterranean.pdf 

Contents : The Eastern Mediterranean in Light of Recent Energy Developments and Their Impact ; The Gifts of Aphrodite: The Need for Competitive Pragmatism in Cypriot Gas Strategy ; Energy Geopolitics in the Eastern Mediterranean: The Role of Greece ; Turkey’s Energy Leadership Ambitions and Their Implications for Energy Governance in the Eastern Mediterranean ; Israel’s Exploitation of Hydrocarbons: Status quo or Quo vadis? ; Cooperation Prospects and Conflict Potential around Hydrocarbons in the Middle East: Israel–Egypt–Palestinian Territories–Jordan ; Cooperation Prospects and Conflict Lines in the Eastern Mediterranean: Prospects for the Future ; Will the European Market Need East Mediterranean Gas? ;  European Energy Policies and Their Relevance to the Eastern Mediterranean

Danièle Revel

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