Energie : papiers de recherche moissonnés (26/05/2016)

Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives 2016: Cities, flexibility and pathways to carbon-neutrality / Nordic Energy Research & International Energy Agency, 2016, 269 p. http://www.nordicenergy.org/project/nordic-energy-technology-perspectives/

The Nordic ETP is a Nordic edition of the IEA’s global ETP. It presents a scenario for how the Nordic countries can achieve a near carbon-neutral energy system in 2050, in the context of the IEA’s 2-degree scenario and using the same models and assumptions. It presents a pathway that achieves an 85% reduction of Nordic energy-related CO2 by 2050 (from 1990 levels) at the lowest cost.

UK Unplugged? The Impacts of Brexit on Energy and Climate Policy / Antony Froggatt, Thomas Raines and Shane Tomlinson. London : Chatham House, May 2016, 34 p. (research paper) https://www.chathamhouse.org/publication/uk-unplugged-impacts-brexit-energy-and-climate-policy

(…) The paper addresses the likely impacts on the longer-term cost, sustainability and security of the UK’s energy sector, as well as the wider regulatory and investment effects, and on the government’s aim to limit the harmful effects of human-induced climate change. It also highlights the possible nearterm disruptive effects and transition costs of leaving, and some of the potential impacts on future EU policy…

Governance and climate change: regulation and related policies. Building Research & Information, special issue, >vol. 44, n° 5-6, 2016 http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09613218.2016.1182786

Algerian Gas: Troubling Trends, Troubles Policies / Ali Aissaoui. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, May 2016, 29 p. (OIES paper ; NG 108) https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/algerian-gas-troubling-trends-troubled-policies/

Despite being one of Europe’s largest pipeline natural gas suppliers and the original and still very active supplier of liquefied natural gas (LNG) worldwide, Algeria has received limited serious attention as an exporter of gas in recent years. One reason may be that the country’s key role has somewhat been eclipsed by new developments in both the European gas scene and in the broader global gas arenas. The geo-political aftermath of the 2014 tensions between Russia and Ukraine has turned attention to the European Union’s increasing dependence on Russian gas. In addition, the start-up of substantial new LNG supplies over the next five years has emphasised the probability of global gas surplus and its likely impacts. Since the OIES Gas Programme’s last paper on Algeria in 2011 several developments have taken place which warrant fresh insights on Algeria’s natural gas sector trends and the outlook for its export potential. While the conclusions of the paper are not optimistic, the causal analysis has parallels in many gas resource-rich countries in the Middle East and North Africa region. Sustained government policies of low domestic prices have neither encouraged rationalization of demand nor provided adequate incentives for upstream investment, ultimately resulting in a severe deterioration of national gas balances. In the case of Algeria, this means being increasingly perceived as short of gas for its export commitments.

An Exploration of a Strategic Competition Model for the European Union Natural Gas Market / Zaifu Yang, Rong Zhang, and Zongyi Zhang.  Department of Economics and Related Studies. University of York, May 2016, 28 p. (Discussion Papers in Economics ; 16/06) https://www.york.ac.uk/media/economics/documents/discussionpapers/2016/1606.pdf

Abstract: Following Jansen et al. (2012), we examine an unconventional Cournot model of the European Union natural gas market with three major suppliers Russian Gazprom, Norwegian Statoil, and Algerian Sonatrach. To reflect Russia’s other strategic consideration besides profit, we incorporate a relative market share into Gazprom’s objective function. We prove that when Gazprom pursues the control of market share along with profit, it will be good news for consumers but bad news for its pure profit maximising rivals. We further show that by seeking a proper market share, Gazprom can achieve the same profit of a Stackelberg leader in a simultaneous move model as in the standard sequential move leader-follower model. Compared with Jansen et al.’s, our approach makes the analysis considerably simpler and more transparent.

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