Energie : papiers de recherche moissonnés (3/06/2016)

Renewables 2016 Global Status Report. EN21, 2016, 272 p. http://www.ren21.net/status-of-renewables/global-status-report/

2015 was an extraordinary year for renewable energy. Renewables are now cost competitive with fossil fuels in many markets and are established around the world as mainstream sources of energy. Cities, communities and companies are leading the rapidly expanding “100% renewable” movement, playing a vital role in advancing the global energy transition. Distributed renewable energy is advancing rapidly to close the gap between the energy haves- and have-nots.

Questioning the EU Target Electricity Model – how should it be adapted to deliver the Trilemma? / David Newbery. Cambridge : Energy Research Policy Group, 24 May 2016, 25 p. (EPRG working paper ; 1617) http://www.eprg.group.cam.ac.uk/eprg-working-paper-1617/

Britain considers the energy-only EU Target Electricity Model (TEM) wanting in delivering the trilemma of reliability, sustainability and affordability and argues that a capacity auction with long-term contracts for new entrants is the least-cost solution compared to relying on expectations of future prices to deliver adequate generation and demand side response. The Energy Union argues against feed-in tariffs (FiTs) for renewables, pressing for premium FiTs (pFiTs), just as GB has abandoned PFiTs in favour of FiTs. This paper draws on the GB experience of Electricity Market Reform before and after the 2015 change of government, to highlight promising resolutions of the energy trilemma, and the problems that have arisen between the diagnosis of the problem and the delivery of solutions. It sets out the theory and practice of delivering capacity, energy and quality of supply, gives a brief history of GB electricity from the CEGB to its current unbundled, liberalized and privatized structure. That sheds light on the trilemma problem and discusses possible solutions. The island of Ireland Single Electricity Market reforms illustrate the problem and possible answer of how best to deliver quality of service with high intermittency.

Adjustment in the Oil Market : Structural, Cyclical or Both? / Bassam Fattouh. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, May 2016, 23 p. (Oxford energy comment) https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/adjustment-oil-market-structural-cyclical/

The sharp fall in the oil price has divided views about the nature of the latest oil price cycle. Some argue that the oil market has been subject to structural shocks that have created a ‘new global oil order’ and that we have entered a world of ‘low oil prices for much longer’. Others are of the view that oil prices will rise sooner than currently expected and the current price fall has many of the characteristics of previous cycles. These two views reflect the high degree of uncertainty engulfing the oil market. This raises some key questions: Has there been a structural shift in the oil market adjustment mechanisms? Is the cycle different this time? And if different, how? This short comment tries to tackle these questions by analysing the nature of the adjustment mechanisms both on the supply (non-OPEC outside the US shale, US shale and OPEC) and on the demand side and by examining the internal consistency of ‘the lower oil price for longer’ scenario and the cyclical view of oil prices.

Brexit and energy: cost, security and climate policy implications / Michael Grubb and Stephen Tindale. European Institute, May 2016, 6 p. (EI note) https://t.co/oMMUVweLjM

Key points : EU Member States currently have substantial freedom over national energy policies. Consequently, short-term impacts of a Brexit on energy would be limited, except for investment. However, leaving the EU would greatly reduce the UK’s influence in shaping European energy and climate change policy, terms of trade, and global climate negotiations. The UK is a growing energy importer. Brexit need not imperil energy security, but maintaining it would become more expensive…

Danièle Revel

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