Energie : papiers de recherche moissonnés (6/06/2016)

The New Japanese LNG strategy: a major step towards hub-based gas pricing in Asia / Jonathan Stern. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, June 2016 (Oxford energy comment) https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/new-japanese-lng-strategy-major-step-towards-hub-based-gas-pricing-asia/

The new Japanese LNG Strategy published in May 2016 envisages the creation of a liquid market and an international LNG hub in Japan. This promises to radically change the traditional JCC (crude oil) based pricing system in Japan, but also potentially in the Pacific Basin as a whole. But the path to hub creation and hub pricing in the early 2020s envisaged by the Strategy will not be straightforward. Non-US LNG projects starting up in the 2016-20 period have JCC-linked prices. US projects have offtake agreements which envisaged an Asian `premium’ to Atlantic Basin prices which has now disappeared. In contrast to `international cooperation’ envisaged by the Strategy which would see buyers and sellers agreeing to change the commercial terms of long term contracts, conflict could be a more likely outcome.

Rethinking power markets: capacity mechanisms and decarbonisation / Laurie Van Der Burg and Shelagh Whitley. Overseas Development Institute (ODI), May 2016, 46 p. (Research reports and studies) https://www.odi.org/publications/10418-rethinking-power-markets-capacity-mechanisms-and-decarbonisation

This report introduces capacity mechanisms, a policy instrument for power markets, to a non-expert audience and considers their implications for meeting parallel objectives of security of supply and decarbonisation. It focuses on capacity mechanism developments in the EU and is directed at those who want to advance climate objectives, but who have a limited background in power markets.
Our review suggests that capacity mechanisms risk undermining parallel energy and climate objectives by locking in dependence on high-carbon, inflexible power generation assets. The introduction of these tools is often politically motivated and not based on a rigorous analysis of their need. Finally, the uncoordinated introduction of capacity mechanisms risks undermining wider efforts to integrate energy markets, which, paradoxically, are meant to ensure a more efficient use of resources and improve security of supply.
As a number of EU member states are moving ahead with the design and implementation of domestic Capacity mechanisms the European Commission has launched an investigation into these developments. Its findings will feed into its electricity market redesign proposals for the end of 2016. This is therefore a key moment to influence this process.

Impact of low oil prices on oil exporting countries / Alban Kitous, et al. European Union/Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, 2016, 80 p. (JRC. Scientific and Technical Research Reports) http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC101562

The report describes the importance of oil for oil exporting countries and analyses the potential economic effects that current low oil prices may have in their economy and political stability. Firstly, the report describes the main drivers that have led to the present low oil prices. Secondly, descriptive statistics are employed to show the exposure of the main oil exporting countries to the oil price, where GDP and government revenue is found to be closely correlated to the oil price. In general, several Sub-Saharan African and North African countries show high risk due to the high exposure of their economy and of their government revenue combined with limited reserves per capita. Secondly, the macro-economic effects of a 60% fall in the price of oil is analysed with the GEM-E3 model, which is an stylized representation of the oil market change over the last two years. The results show that such an oil price drop has different effects across oil exporting countries, unsurprisingly strongly correlated with export dependence to oil. For instance, a 60% fall in the price of oil could lead to a reduction of the GDP of Sub-Saharan Africa by around 8.5%. The final section discusses the migration patterns from the studied countries, as a proxy of what might happen be they destabilised because of a lasting low oil price.

The Baltic power system between east and west interconnections / Arturs Purvins, et al. European Union/Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, 2016, 52 p. (JRC science for policy research) https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/publication/eur-scientific-and-technical-research-reports/baltic-power-system-between-east-and-west-interconnections

Due to historical and geographical reasons, the Baltic States are strongly connected to the power (electricity) transmission grids of Russia and Belarus. Current energy security and energy independence targets in the EU trigger seeking for alternative power sources for the Baltic. Knowing that, a power system model of the Baltic States has been developed and validated with the purpose of providing comparative options for a reliable and secure development of the Baltic electricity system. The analysis of horizon 2020 and 2030 showed that the dependency of Baltic States on the outside resources is fairly low, provided that the expansion of the electricity system goes as planned.

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