Energie : papier de recherche moissonnés (20/06/2016)

The power to change : Solar and wind cost Reduction Potential to 2025 / Michael Taylor, Pablo Ralon and Andrei Ilas. Abu Dhabi : Irena, June 2016, 112 p. http://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/Publications/IRENA_Power_to_Change_2016.pdf

Increasing economies of scale, more competitive supply chains and further technological improvements will continue reducing the costs of solar and wind power. The same factors will also boost the availability of these key renewable power sources at night and in varying weather conditions.
With the right policies in place, the cost of electricity from solar and wind power technologies could fall by at least 26% and as much as 59% between 2015 and 2025, finds this cost-analysis report from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).
The global weighted average cost of electricity could fall by 26% from onshore wind, by 35% from offshore wind, by at least 37% from concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies, and by 59% from solar photovoltaics (PV) by 2025, the report finds.
In energy markets around the world, rising competitive pressures that will drive continual innovation. While equipment costs will keep declining, reductions in balance-of-system, operation and maintenance and capital costs are becoming increasingly important drivers for overall cost reduction.

Business model for cross-border interconnections in the Mediterranean basin / Rahmatallah Poudineh and Alessandro Rubino. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, June 2016, 34 p. (OIES paper: EL 19) https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/business-model-cross-border-interconnections-mediterranean-basin/

The complementarity between electricity systems of the north and south Mediterranean basin along with the need for diversification of energy resources and optimisation of energy systems are among the reasons for greater electricity trade and cross-border integration in the region. However, development of cross-border interconnection in the Mediterranean basin requires a business model which provides incentives for investment and efficient operation, manages risks and uncertainties and facilitates coordinated planning and governance. We contend that, due to high perceived risk of investment, delivery of interconnection projects through the EU regulated model is less likely, or only possible at prohibitively high rate of returns. The merchant transmission initiative (MTI), on the other hand, is seen as an exception under the EU laws and can be approved only if the project meets a set of strict conditions. We, therefore, advocate a hybrid business model in which the main benefits of a merchant model are maintained within a regulated structure. We highlight the main components of the proposed business model and show how it addresses the key features of a viable business model in relation to incentives, risks and governance. Our analysis demonstrates that the proposed Mediterranean business model for interconnection can better provide incentives for investment and is more compatible with the region’s energy scenario, governance structure and the risk attitude.

La transition énergétique en Suède / Michel Cruciani. Paris : IFRI, juin 2016, 60 p. https://www.ifri.org/fr/publications/etudes-de-lifri/transition-energetique-suede

Cette étude retrace les évolutions des choix énergétiques de la Suède, notamment en matière de politique nucléaire, de taxe carbone et de développement des énergies renouvelables. Considéré comme un modèle de transition énergétique, le pays pourrait cependant être confronté aux mêmes problèmes que ses voisins européens dans un futur proche.

Some future scenarios of Russian natural gas in Europe / Tatiana Mitrova, Tim Boersma & Anna Galkina. Energy Strategy Reviews, vol. 11-12, June 2016, pp. 19-28 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X16300141

This study contains a number of scenario studies to assess the share of Russian natural gas in the European natural gas mix going forward. Scenarios were calculated using the NEXANT world gas model (WGM) integrated in ERIRAS modeling information complex SCANER. The calculations in the WGM are based on demand and potential production forecast in each gas producing and/or gas consuming country of the world up to 2040. The paper continues with a discussion of the (limitations of the) most often debated alternatives to Russian gas. We conclude that remarkable little changes in the European natural gas mix in the scenarios under study, and that absent very drastic policy interventions Russian natural gas will continue to play a prominent role in the EU.

China’s 13th Five Year Plan: Implications for Oil Markets / Michal Meidan. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, June 2016, 16 p. (Oxford energy comment) https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/chinas-13th-five-year-plan-implications-oil-markets/

China’s 13th Five Year Plan (13FYP) outlines the country’s economic transformation for the coming five years and beyond. As the main blueprint for China’s ‘rebalancing’, it will impact economic growth and energy demand patterns. China’s economic growth is slowing, and the economy is now clearly shifting from an export oriented growth path to a more consumer-driven development model. The 13FYP, by laying particular emphasis on innovation, urbanisation and environmental protection, will accelerate the shift in end product demand from middle distillates to light ends. Efforts to curb industrial overcapacity will further weigh on diesel demand, even though plans for regional interconnectivity will prevent it from falling sharply, while the push to develop alternative energy vehicles will slow gasoline demand growth rates. Finally, the government’s efforts to open the domestic oil industry to private participants is testament to a change in its thinking about oil supply security, and of a greater willingness to allow Chinese companies to become active participants in global oil supply chains and price-making mechanisms. Reforms of the Chinese national oil companies (NOCs) are unlikely to lead to massive privatisations, but will force them to be more financially disciplined. Over the next couple of years, this will lead to cuts in upstream Capex and more cautious outbound investments.

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