Energie : papier de recherche moissonnés (22/06/2016)

Energy Scenarios: The Value and Limits of Scenario Analysis / Sergey Paltsev. MIT-CEEPR, April 2016, 31 p. (CEEPR WP 2016-007) http://ceepr.mit.edu/publications/working-papers/643

A need for a low-carbon world has added a new challenging dimension for the long-term energy scenarios development. In addition to the traditional factors like technological progress, demographic, economic, political and institutional considerations, there is another aspect of the modern energy forecasts related to the coverage, timing, and stringency of policies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and air pollutants. Modern tools for the energy scenario development provide a good basis for the estimates of the required changes in the energy system to achieve certain climate and environmental targets. While the current scenarios show that a move to a low-carbon energy future requires a drastic change in energy investment and the resulting mix in energy technologies, the exact technology mix, paths to the needed mix, price and cost projections should be treated with a great degree of caution. The scenarios are unlikely to be successful at producing precisely definitive estimates, but they can be used as a qualitative analysis of decision-making risks associated with different pathways. If history is any guide, energy scenarios overestimate the extent to which the future will look like the recent past. As future costs and the resulting technology mixes are uncertain, a wise government policy is to target emissions reductions from any source, rather than focus on boosting certain kinds of low-carbon energy.

World Energy Trilemma 2016: Defining measures to accelerate the energy transition. London : World Energy Council, 2016 http://www.worldenergy.org/publications/2016/world-energy-trilemma-2016-defining-measures-to-accelerate-the-energy-transition/

The 2016 World Energy Trilemma report aims to support policymakers in the complex task of translating the trilemma goals of energy security, energy equity and environmental sustainability, into implementation actions. Leveraging the learnings of World Energy Trilemma reports and indices from 2011 to 2015, and a wide assessment of country energy strategies, the 2016 report identifies five areas where countries have focused efforts to drive progress on the energy trilemma goals:

  1. transforming energy supply
  2. advancing energy access
  3. addressing affordability
  4. improving energy efficiency and managing demand
  5. decarbonising the energy sector.

Within each focus area, selected policy tools are analysed, highlighting the barriers from policy design to implementation and the learning from policy initiatives across the world. Policy examples from a variety of countries illustrate how best to manage the trade-offs and spill-overs within the energy trilemma framework of security, equity and environmental sustainability.

Le gaz de schiste américain et la sécurité énergétique de l’Europe / Jean-Sylvestre Mongrenier. Institut Thomas More, juin 2016, 11 p. (Points clés n° 15) http://www.institut-thomas-more.org/actualite/le-gaz-de-schiste-americain-et-la-securite-energetique-de-leurope-3.html

Alors que l’Europe demeure dépendante du gaz russe, Ségolène Royal, ministre français de l’Environnement prétend interdire l’importation de gaz de schiste américain. Pourtant, ces importations auront un effet positif sur la diversification des approvisionnements en gaz de l’Europe et contribueront à sa sécurité énergétique. Explications…

En réponse au contre-choc pétrolier, la stratégie en trois étapes des majors pétroliers : Désendettement, Désinvestissement et Diversification. IFPEN, juin 2016, 6 p. http://www.ifpenergiesnouvelles.fr/Actualites/Actualite/Fil-d-actu/L-analyse-d-IFPEN-sur-la-strategie-des-majors-petroliers

Dans un contexte de prix bas du pétrole, d’une demande atone et sous la pression de leurs actionnaires, les sociétés pétrolières accélèrent leur changement de modèle économique. Pénalisées par des revenus en forte baisse et un endettement croissant, les majors ont toutes entrepris de réduire de manière drastique leurs investissements, de se recentrer sur les segments les plus rentables de leur activité, mais également de se diversifier vers d’autres sources d’énergies.

Next Generation Wind and Solar Power: From cost to value. Paris : IEA/OECD, June 2016, 40 p. https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/next-generation-wind-and-solar-power.html

Wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) are currently the fastest-growing sources of electricity globally. A “next generation” phase of deployment is emerging, in which wind and solar PV are technologically mature and economically affordable. The success of variable renewable energy (VRE) is also bringing new challenges to the fore. Electricity generation from both technologies is constrained by the varying availability of wind and sunshine. This can make it difficult to maintain the necessary balance between electricity supply and consumption at all times. As these variable renewables enter this next generation of deployment, the issue of system and market integration becomes a critical priority for renewables policy and energy policy more broadly. The paper highlights that this will require strategic action in three areas: System-friendly deployment, aiming to maximise the net benefit of wind and solar power for the entire system ; Improved operating strategies, such as advanced renewable energy forecasting and enhanced scheduling of power plants ; Investment in additional flexible resources, comprising demand-side resources, electricity storage, grid infrastructure and flexible generation…

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