Energie : papier de recherche moissonnés (30/06/2016)

Mix électrique 100% renouvelables à 2050. Evaluation macro-économique. Paris : Ademe, juin 2016, 42 p. http://www.ademe.fr/mix-electrique-100-renouvelables-a-2050-evaluation-macro-economique

A travers les « Visions 2030-2050 » et l’étude intitulée « Un mix électrique 100 % renouvelable ? Analyses et optimisations », l’ADEME a, d’une part, établi et proposé un scénario complet et cohérent de transition énergétique prenant en compte l’offre et la demande et, d’autre part, étudié la faisabilité technique et économique de très forts taux d’énergies renouvelables ( EnR ) dans le cas particulier du mix électrique. Dans la continuité de l’évaluation macro-économique des « Visions 2030-2050 » de 2013, l’ADEME expose, à travers la présente étude, les résultats de l’évaluation des retombées macro-économiques potentielles de trajectoires énergétiques combinant le scénario de transition développé dans les « Visions 2030-2050 » et l’atteinte de mix électriques à haute pénétration EnR.

Pricing Electricity and Supporting Renewables in Heavily Energy Subsidized Economies / David Newbery. Cambridge : Energy Policy Research Group, 2016, 21 p. (EPRG working paper ; 1618) http://www.eprg.group.cam.ac.uk/eprg-working-paper-1618/

Heavily Energy Subsidized Economies, defined as having budgetary subsidies above 1.5% of GDP, on average in 2014 spent 4% of GDP on subsidizing energy. Resource rents permit administratively undemanding transfers to citizens to maintain political support. Once in place, benefitting groups will resist their removal, despite the resulting inefficient consumption and the lock-in risk caused by sustained low energy prices. Collapsing energy prices that deliver severe fiscal shocks combined with growing concerns over climate change damage make carefully designed reforms both urgent and politically more acceptable. Understanding their political logic suggests designing reforms that compensate the most vocal interest groups and there is evidence that this is increasingly recognized. The paper presents evidence on the magnitude and impacts of oil gas and electricity subsidies, and discusses how the electricity sector can be weaned of subsidies while reducing its carbon emissions.

Key Factors Affecting China’s Changing Demand for Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) / Jin Liu, Department of Industry, Innovation and Science, Canberra, Australia, Xiujian Peng and Philip Adams, Centre of Policy Studies, Victoria University, Melbourne. April 2016, 76 p. http://www.industry.gov.au/Office-of-the-Chief-Economist/Publications/Pages/Key-factors-affecting-changes-in-Chinas-demand-for-liquefied-natural-gas.aspx

This study explores key aspects of China’s future demand for energy — particularly from LNG — under three distinct policy scenarios:

  • scenario one (increasing share of service sector in the economy)
  • scenario two (capping coal consumption by 2020
  • scenario three (accelerating unconventional gas production).

A final policy simulation (i.e. composite policy scenario) integrates the three separate policy scenarios. Compared with the three individual scenarios, the composite policy is an attempt to balance between the objectives of strong economic growth, lower carbon emissions, environmental benefits and energy security.

Promoting Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency in Africa: A Framework to Evaluate Employment Generation and Cost-effectiveness / Nicola Cantore, Patrick Nussbaumer, Max Wei, Daniel Kammen. Milan : Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, June 2016, 32 p. (Nota di lavoro ; 2016.045) http://www.feem.it/userfiles/attach/2016624103114NDL2016-045.pdf

The ongoing debate over the cost-effectiveness of renewable energy (RE) and energy efficiency (EE) deployment often hinges on the current cost of incumbent fossil-fuel technologies versus the long-term benefit of clean energy alternatives. This debate is often focused on mature or ‘industrialized’ economies and externalities such as job creation. In many ways, however, the situation in developing economies is at least as or even more interesting due to the generally faster current rate of economic growth and of infrastructure deployment. On the one hand, RE and EE could help decarbonize economies in developing countries, but on the other hand, higher upfront costs of RE and EE could hamper short-term growth. The methodology developed in this paper confirms the existence of this trade-off for some scenarios, yet at the same time provides considerable evidence about the positive impact of EE and RE from a job creation and employment perspective. By extending and adopting a methodology for Africa designed to calculate employment from electricity generation in the U.S., this study finds that energy savings and the conversion of the electricity supply mix to renewable energy generates employment compared to a reference scenario. It also concludes that the costs per additional job created tend to decrease with increasing levels of both EE adoption and RE shares.

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