Climat – papiers de recherche moissonnés (23 août 2016)

Paris Mismatches: The Impact of the COP21 Climate Change Negotiations on the Oil and Gas Industries / John Mitchell and Beth Mitchell. London : Chatham House, Aug. 2016, 54 p. (research paper)

This paper analyses the impact of international climate action agreed at the COP21 meeting held in Paris in December 2015 on the oil and gas sector. It includes summaries of the relevant aspects of the individual Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) of China, the EU, India, Japan, Saudi Arabia (with some comments on Iran) and the United States. These countries represent not only the largest contributors to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but a mix of developed, developing, and oil and gas exporting countries. This paper highlights the different approaches these governments propose, compared with previous policies, the impacts on the oil and gas sector, and the challenges for managements and investors within the sector.

L’accord de Paris comme référence, tremplin et instrument de cohérence / Claude Henry, Revue d’économie politique, vol. 126, n°4, 2016, pp. 487-497 ; (accès personnel UGA)

La collision entre une croissance démographique, inévitable, et un effondrement du capital naturel, évitable mais imminent – le climat en particulier – n’est pas compatible avec la survie de beaucoup d’organismes vivants, humanité incluse. Il est cependant possible de faire face en s’appuyant sur une richesse étonnante de connaissances scientifiques et techniques, d’approches organisationnelles, disponibles dès aujourd’hui ou dans un avenir proche. Mais pour les mettre en œuvre à une échelle et à un rythme adaptés aux menaces, il faut une révolution dans les institutions et les comportements. En dépit de ses faiblesses l’Accord Climatique de Paris est une étape significative dans cette direction ; il fournit un cadre, des références et une rampe de lancement pour une foule d’initiatives souhaitables.

COP 21 and Economic Theory: Taking Stock / Henry Tulkens, Revue d’économie politique, vol. 126, n°4, 2016, pp. 471-486 (accès personnel UGA)

The texts of the COP 21 Decision and its Annex are scrutinized from the particular point of view of the extent to which economic theoretic concepts can be considered to inspire them. While this is shown to be partially the case in some of the intentions, the texts themselves contain more diplomatically formulated promises than effective implementation of relevant mainstream well established economic concepts.

The Paris Agreement on Climate Change: Behind Closed Doors / Radoslav S. Dimitrov, Global Environmental Politics, August 2016, Vol. 16, No. 3, pp. 1-11

The Paris Agreement constitutes a political success in climate negotiations and traditional state diplomacy, and offers important implications for academic research. Based on participatory research, the article examines the political dynamics in Paris and highlights features of the process that help us understand the outcome. It describes battles on key contentious issues behind closed doors, provides a summary and evaluation of the new agreement, identifies political winners and losers, and offers theoretical explanations of the outcome. The analysis emphasizes process variables and underscores the role of persuasion, argumentation, and organizational strategy. Climate diplomacy succeeded because the international conversation during negotiations induced cognitive change. Persuasive arguments about the economic benefits of climate action altered preferences in favor of policy commitments at both national and international levels.

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