Energie : papiers de recherche moissonnés (24 août 2016)

Review of current national rules and practices relating to risk preparedness in the area of security of electricity supply: Final report. Brussels : European Commission.
Directorate-General for Energy, May 2016, 94 p. https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/news/new-study-examines-national-rules-and-practices-electricity-supply-risk

The study – a review of current national rules and practices relating to risk preparedness in the area of security of electricity supply – shows a diverse range of plans across EU countries on electricity supply risk assessments, plans and rules. While most EU countries have plans to prevent and deal with electricity crises, the detail and scope of these plans varies considerably across the EU. Moreover, many national plans tend to focus on uniquely on the national situation and not on the broader electricity supply risk. Cross-border cooperation in risk assessment and prevention plans is scarce, according to the study. The results of the study also show that EU countries have different concepts of what an emergency situation is, and who should do what and when in such situations. In particular, there is significant uncertainty on what public authorities can do in emergency situations. The goal of the study was to provide the Commission with an overview and to highlight best practices as well as any gaps and inconsistencies in national strategies.  The results of the study feed in to the Commission’s work on proposals for new legislation on risk preparedness as part of a broader set of initiatives to reform the electricity market in the EU.

Energy Relations between Russia and China: Playing Chess with the Dragon / James Henderson & Tatiana Mitrova. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, Aug. 2016, 95 p. (OIES paper: WPM 67) https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/energy-relations-russia-china-playing-chess-dragon/

This paper addresses the expanding energy cooperation between Russia and China in the context of the political and commercial relationship between the two countries. It assesses progress during the post-Soviet era, but focuses especially on the past two years since sanctions were imposed on Russia by the US and the EU. It attempts to analyse the balance of bargaining power between the two countries via a detailed analysis of the various oil, gas, coal and power sector deals that have taken place, and assesses whether Russia’s pivot to Asia is moving as smoothly as had been hoped by the Kremlin when the first major gas export deal with China was signed in May 2014. The paper continues the series of analyses of Russia’s hydrocarbon export strategy that has been published over the past two years, and also deepens the OIES output on China and its energy import strategy. Furthermore, it aims to contribute to an understanding of the balance of Russia’s political and commercial ambitions, which is of vital relevance to any analysis of the country’s future relations with the global energy economy.

The Ukrainian residential gas sector: a market untapped / Piotr Rozwałka, Hannes Tordengren. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, July 2016, 47 p. (OIES paper: NG 109) https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/The-Ukrainian-residential-gas-sector-a-market-untapped-NG-109.pdf

Ukraine’s residential and district heating sectors epitomise a well-known set of problems faced in former Soviet countries: outworn infrastructure, heavily subsidised pricing structures and inefficient consumption. This paper seeks to ascertain the potential of reforms that have now begun, focused on bringing prices to import price parity. It provides estimates of the potential gas savings both from price reform and from other efficiency measures (infrastructure investment, etc). For readers in Europe, the paper is of interest for the insights it provides into a market that, while having contracted sharply in recent years, is still among the continent’s largest, and as a result of the start-up of “reverse flow” trading – bringing gas into Ukraine across its western border – is accessible to European market players.  For readers in the former Soviet countries, the paper may also be of interest for what it says about the effect of reforms on consumption, on state and gas sector finances and their potential for energy policy.

Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, Oil Policy and the Evolution of the Energy Sector / Bassam Fattouh and Amrita Sen. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, July 2016, 12 p. (Oxford energy comment) https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/saudi-arabias-vision-2030-oil-policy-evolution-energy-sector/

Structural reforms outlined in Vision 2030 are much needed to shift the economy to a more sustainable path and even if only a small part of Vision 2030 is being implemented, the Saudi economy will look very different in 2030 than it does now. The key question is whether these changes will have a substantial impact on oil policy and the evolution of the energy sector. In this comment, we argue that while the recent announcements and organisational changes are substantial, and the overall objectives of Vision 2030 are very ambitious, the impact on oil policy and the energy sector is likely to be more subtle than current expectations.  Despite expectations of a diminished role, the Saudi energy sector (and particularly the oil and gas sector) remains key to a smooth transition to the vibrant economy envisioned and will continue to play a vital role in the country’s future. Furthermore, the overall direction of Saudi oil policy in terms of its production and investment policy, maintaining spare capacity, integrating down the value chain through investing in refining and petrochemicals, increasing the role of gas in the energy mix, introducing efficiency measures and deploying renewables in the power mix to free crude oil for exports are not likely to change in the next few years as has been confirmed by the National Transformation Programme. In fact, one could argue that the Saudi energy sector would benefit from a more integrated energy policy that takes a holistic view about the energy challenges facing the kingdom. But the Saudi energy sector will not be immune from the changes in other parts of the economy as the recent restructuring of the energy ministry, the recent increase in energy price, the emphasis on local content policies, and plans for a partial public listing of Saudi Aramco have shown. The restructuring and reorganisation of such a vital sector and the acceleration of some policies may bring benefits and achieve efficiency gains, but they will also generate uncertainties and risks, which need to be carefully assessed and managed so policymakers don’t end up killing the goose that lays the golden eggs.

Flexibility-Enabling Contracts in Electricity Markets / Luis Boscán and Rahmatallah Poudineh. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, 73 p. (OIES paper: EL 21) https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Flexibility-Enabling-Contracts-in-Electricity-Markets-EL-21.pdf ; (Oxford energy comment, 11 p.) https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/flexibility-enabling-contracts-electricity-markets/

In this paper we investigate the problem of incentivising flexibility in electricity markets. As the share of intermittent renewable energy increases in the generation mix, power systems are exposed to greater levels of uncertainty and risk, which requires planners, policy and business decision makers to incentivise flexibility, that is: their adaptability to unforeseen variations in generation and demand. The greater need for flexibility, along with the fact that its provision is costly, highlights the importance of efficient procurement. As a commodity, flexibility has multiple attributes such as capacity, ramp rate, duration and lead time among which there are complementarities. Additionally, along with traditional sources, which already enable flexibility, a number of business models, such as thermostat-based demand response, aggregators and small storage providers, are emerging in electricity markets and expected to constitute important sources of flexibility in future decentralised power systems. However, due to presence of high transaction costs, relative to the size of resource, the emerging small resources cannot directly participate in an organised electricity market and/or compete. Therefore we ask the fundamental question of how should the provision of flexibility, as a multi-dimensional commodity, be incentivised in this context? We model the procurement of flexibility services from emerging small resources through bilateral contracts in a multidimensional adverse selection setting. We take a normative perspective and show how efficient contracts for flexibility services can be designed given its peculiarity as an economic commodity. Through a simulation analysis we elucidate the applicability of the proposed model and demonstrate the way it can be utilised in, for example, a thermostat based demand response programme.

Énergie, bilan 2015 : chute de la facture. Commissariat général au développement durable, juillet 2016, 4 p. + tableaux (Datalab – Essentiel n° 17) http://www.statistiques.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/publications/p/2570/969/energie-bilan-2015-chute-facture.html

En France, après avoir chuté de 3,8 % en 2014, la consommation d’énergie primaire réelle rebondit de 1,6 % en 2015, à 253,4 Mtep, en raison principalement de la baisse des températures par rapport à 2014, année exceptionnellement douce.

Energy efficiency policy mixes under Article 7 / Vlasios Oikonomou, Jan Rosenow, Tina Fawcett, Nick Eyre. ENSPOL, July 2016, 8 p. (policy brief) http://enspol.eu/content/3rd-enspol-policy-brief-energy-efficiency-policy-mixes-under-article-7

Energy efficiency policy is expected to play a key role for meeting the European Union’s energy targets (particularly for reduced energy demand and reduced CO₂ emissions) using a range of policy instrument combinations. However, most analyses undertaken so far have focused on single-policy measures rather than developing a more generic framework for assessing to what extent a particular policy mix is effective and under which specific conditions. Based on an assessment of the interaction of policies from MS under their Article 7 notifications to the EC, some policies seem to complement others, while in other cases we have overlaps that can hinder the effectiveness of the policy mixes. This policy brief presents lessons on how building policy mixes could be made more effective and efficient.

Danièle Revel

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