Energie : papiers de recherche moissonnés (25/08/2016)

Les énergies renouvelables en France en 2015. Commissariat général au développement durable, août 2016, 4 p. http://www.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/les_energies_renouvelables_en_France_en_2015.pdf

La part des énergies renouvelables dans la consommation finale brute d’énergie en France s’élève à 14,9 % en 2015, d’après des estimations provisoires, en progression régulière depuis une dizaine d’années. La croissance importante des énergies renouvelables depuis 2005 (+ 48 %) est principalement due à l’essor des biocarburants, des pompes à chaleur et de la filière éolienne. Le développement du solaire photovoltaïque et de la biomasse solide pour le chauffage y contribue également, même si le recours à cette dernière a été limité en 2014 et 2015, en raison de l’extrême douceur du climat. Le rythme auquel se développent les énergies renouvelables demeure cependant insuffisant au regard des objectifs visés par la France pour 2020. Alors que la part des énergies renouvelables dans la consommation finale brute d’énergie a progressé de 5,7 points en dix ans, elle devra progresser de 8,1 points supplémentaires durant les cinq prochaines années pour atteindre l’objectif de 23 % à la fin de la décennie.

Estimating Path Dependence in Energy Transitions / Kyle C. Meng. NBER, Aug. 2016, 59 p. (Working Paper No. 22536) https://www.dropbox.com/s/ex63mhqhbto91ba/Meng_coal_August2016.pdf?dl=1

Addressing climate change requires transitioning away from coal-based energy. Recent structural change models demonstrate that temporary interventions could induce permanent fuel switching when transitional dynamics exhibit strong path dependence. Exploiting changes in local coal supply driven by subsurface coal accessibility, I find that transitory shocks have strengthening effects on the fuel composition of two subsequent generations of U.S. electricity capital. To facilitate a structural interpretation, I develop a model which informs: tests that find scale effects as the relevant mechanism; recovery of the elasticity of substitution between coal and non-coal electricity; and simulations of future carbon emissions following temporary interventions.

Can Natural Gas Save Lives? Evidence from the Deployment of a Fuel Delivery System in a Developing Country / Resul Cesur, Erdal Tekin, Aydogan Ulker. NBER, Aug. 2016, 49 p. (Working Paper No. 22522) http://ftp.iza.org/dp10115.pdf

There has been a widespread displacement of coal by natural gas as space heating and cooking technology in Turkey in the last two decades, triggered by the deployment of natural gas networks. In this paper, we examine the impact of this development on mortality among adults and the elderly. Our research design exploits the variation in the timing of the deployment and the intensity of expansion of natural gas networks at the provincial level using data from 2001 to 2014. The results indicate that the expansion of natural gas services has caused significant reductions in both the adult and the elderly mortality rates. According to our point estimates, a one-percentage point increase in the rate of subscriptions to natural gas services would lower the overall mortality rate by 1.4 percent, the adult mortality rate by 1.9 percent, and the elderly mortality rate by 1.2 percent. These findings are supported by our auxiliary analysis, which demonstrates that the expansion of natural gas networks has indeed led to a significant improvement in air quality. Furthermore, we show that the mortality gains for both the adult and the elderly populations are primarily driven by reductions in cardio-respiratory deaths, which are more likely to be due to conditions caused or exacerbated by air pollution. Finally, our analysis does not reveal any important gender differences in the estimated relationship between the deployment of natural gas networks and mortality.

The Renewable Route to Sustainable Transport: A working paper based on REma / Dolf Gielen, Deger Saygin and Nicholas Wagner. Irena, Aug. 2016, 72 p. https://irenanewsroom.org/2016/08/09/laying-the-route-to-sustainable-transport-by-2030/

Energy use in transport accounts for around one-third of global final energy consumption, and demand is growing rapidly, at about 1% annually. Transport has the lowest renewable energy share of any sector, making progress in this area crucial for the global transition to a sustainable energy system. Recognising the sector’s importance, IRENA puts together a Transport Action Team consisting of more than 200 experts from private companies, academic institutions, government and international organisations. This working paper, drawing on engagement with those experts, expands on the transport findings published in IRENA’s report REmap: Roadmap for a Renewable Energy Future, 2016 Edition. REmap – IRENA’s roadmap for a renewable energy future – examines ways to scale up renewables in the global energy mix. The global roadmap identifies significant renewable energy potential in the transport sector. The paper also proposes an action agenda to help boost renewable energy use in transport and improve the overall sustainability of the sector.

Technological contribution of MNEs to the growth of energy-greentech sector in the early post-Kyoto period / Patricia Laurens, Christian Le Bas, Antoine Schoen, Stephane Lhuillery. RIODD 2016, Jul 2016, Saint-Etienne, France, 40 p. hal-01349964

Abstract : We consider the commitment of large firms with high R&D investments to the development of technologies of climate change mitigation related to the production or storage of energy. We analyse such Climate Change Mitigation Technologies focused on energy production and storage (energy CCMT) across the globe with the aim of assessing whether the Kyoto Protocol fosters the diffusion of inventive activity in energy greentech. Using patents as the key dataset, we give an empirical description of the corporate patenting activity and assess its contribution to the overall energy CCMT inventions across countries and sectors of energy greentech before and after the signing of the Kyoto Protocol (1997). Our observations indicate that climate change issues and greentech development have not been prioritized to the same extent by firms of western countries as opposed to, for example, Japanese firms in the beginning of the 2000s. However, we witness a growing commitment in most of the western countries. US large firms were more prone to gain skills in renewable energy technologies than most of their European counterparts, which continue to heavily invest in traditional energies such as Nuclear energy and Combustion.

Optimal Power Generation Portfolios with Renewables: An Application to the UK / Rowan Adams and Tooraj Jamasb. Energy Policy Research Group, July 2016, 39 p. (EPRG Working Paper 1620) http://www.eprg.group.cam.ac.uk/eprg-working-paper-1620/

In recent years, geopolitical events have raised questions about the security of European energy supplies and which electricity generation technologies present an optimal fuel mix. Likewise, private investors need to allocate their capital efficiently by devising portfolios of generation assets. This paper applies the Modern Portfolio Theory to determine an optimal portfolio with four electricity generation technologies. Using UK electricity and fuel price data and European carbon allowance prices for the period 2009-2013, we find that coal assets increase portfolio risk and decrease overall returns, whilst a combination of gas, nuclear and wind assets allows an investor to maximise risk-adjusted return. In addition, we examine the role of power purchase agreements (PPAs) to assess whether predictable revenues create more appealing portfolio characteristics. We find that such contracts reduce portfolio returns, highlighting the importance of the set prices and their possible fluctuations over time. The findings support electricity market reform that discourages coal investment and supports investment in renewable technologies. The results also suggest that PPAs could make sense for independent renewable generators, although this would require modelling of the uncertainty of variable load factors and operating costs.

Transition énergétique en Méditerranée : scénario 2040. Paris : Ademe, juin 2016, 20 p. http://www.ademe.fr/transition-energetique-mediterranee-scenario-2040

Ce document est une synthèse des travaux réalisés dans le cadre de la coopération entre L’Agence méditerranéenne des agences nationales de maîtrise de l’énergie (MEDENER), l’Observatoire méditerranéen de l’énergie (OME) et l’ADEME, pour l’élaboration d’un Scénario de Transition énergétique en Méditerranée. Ces travaux ont été présentés à l’occasion de la 4^e conférence internationale de MEDENER, « Accélération de la Transition énergétique en Méditerranée, vers un nouveau mix énergétique durable », organisée en partenariat avec l’Agence nationale pour la promotion et la rationalisation de l’utilisation de l’énergie (APRUE), le 25 mai 2016 à Alger. Pour la conférence MedCOP sur le Climat à Tanger du 18 et 19 juillet 2016, les travaux réévaluent l’impact énergétique des Contributions déterminées au niveau national (CDN) soumises par chaque pays méditerranéen à l’accord de Paris sur le climat au regard du scénario transition énergétique 2040, afin d’inscrire tous les pays de la région de la Méditerranée sur une trajectoire de +2 ℃ à l’horizon 2040.

Définir des actions concrètes pour mettre en œuvre le dialogue européen sur l’énergie. Bruxelles : Comité économique et social européen, 2016, 50 p. http://www.eesc.europa.eu/resources/docs/qe-02-16-191-fr-n.pdf

Cette étude permet de concrétiser en termes opérationnels le concept de dialogue européen sur l’énergie (DEE) et le décrit de telle sorte qu’il puisse en être débattu avec les parties prenantes qui devraient être impliquées dans sa mise en œuvre. Le DEE vise à permettre aux parties prenantes de coopérer avec la société civile en leur fournissant l’approche structurée et validée nécessaire, à mobiliser la société civile de façon à l’associer plus étroitement, et à établir des liens entre les nombreux dialogues qui ont lieu aux niveaux national, régional, municipal et local. À cet effet le DEE doit:
– établir et promouvoir des principes sous-jacents éprouvés, qui ont été convenus;
– fournir un cadre pour mettre en relation et exploiter les initiatives existantes en vue d’inclure la société civile;
– soutenir, faciliter et accélérer le processus d’implication et de mobilisation de la société civile;
– aborder les principales questions d’intérêt public.

Danièle Revel

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