Energie : papiers de recherche moissonnés (mercredi 7 septembre 2016)

Saudi Arabia has plans to get out of oil (nearly); but will they work? Oil and energy trends, Aug. 2016, 9 p. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/oet.12393/epdf

An analysis of Saudi Arabia’s plan to diversify its economy by greatly reducing the role of oil and the prospects for achieving this…

Energy Security in China’s 13th Five Years Plan: What to expect from there? / Irina Ionela Pop. London : Centre for Geopolitics & Security in Realism Studies, Aug. 2016, 5 p. http://cgsrs.org/publicationDetail.php?id=77

From the mid-1960s until 1993, China was energy self­sufficient. Since 2011, China has become the largest global energy consumer, the world s second-largest oil consumer behind the United States, the world s top coal producer, consumer, and importer, the third largest natural gas producer, and the world s largest power generator…

Oil Market Power in General Equilibrium (Conference Paper) / Waldemar Marz and Johannes Pfeiffer. Beiträge zur Jahrestagung des Vereins für Socialpolitik 2016: Demographischer Wandel – Session: Firm Behavior: Theory, No. F15-V3. Mars 2016, 59 p. https://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/145876

We analyze monopoly power in a market for a complementary fossil resource like oil in a two country/two period model with international trade in general equilibrium. Focusing on the complex interplay of capital and resource market, we elaborate how these effects feed back into the resource monopolist’s extraction decision. His level of knowledge about the economic structure thereby plays a key role. The accumulation of own capital assets over time, together with a recognized influence of extraction on the interest rate, can lead the monopolist to accelerate or postpone extraction. Considering the interaction of resource market and global capital accumulation poses an incentive for the monopolist to accelerate extraction and to exploit the importers’ increased resource addiction in the future. The conservationist bias of resource market power can be increased, dampened or reversed through the general equilibrium effects.

Estimating Path Dependence in Energy Transitions / Kyle C. Meng. NBER, Aug. 2016 (Working Paper No. 22536) http://www.nber.org/papers/w22536.pdf

Addressing climate change requires transitioning away from coal-based energy. Recent structural change models demonstrate that temporary interventions could induce permanent fuel switching when transitional dynamics exhibit strong path dependence. Exploiting changes in local coal supply driven by subsurface coal accessibility, I find that transitory shocks have strengthening effects on the fuel composition of two subsequent generations of U.S. electricity capital. To facilitate a structural interpretation, I develop a model which informs: tests that find scale effects as the relevant mechanism; recovery of the elasticity of substitution between coal and non-coal electricity; and simulations of future carbon emissions following temporary interventions.

Danièle Revel

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