Climat : papiers de recherche moissonnés (18/10/2016)
Will the Paris Accord Accelerate Climate Change? / Laurence J. Kotlikoff, Andrey Polbin, Andrey Zubarev. NBER, Oct. 2016, 43 p. (Working Paper No. 22731) http://www.kotlikoff.net/node/551
The 2015 Paris Accord is meant to control our planet’s rising temperature. But it may be doing the opposite in gradually, rather than immediately reducing CO2 emissions. The Accord effectively tells dirty-energy producers to “use it or lose it.” This may be accelerating their extraction and burning of fossil fuels and, thereby, be permanently raising temperatures.
Our paper uses a simple OLG model to illustrate this long-noted Green Paradox. Its framework treats climate damage as a negative externality imposed by today’s generations on tomorrow’s – an externality that is, in part, irreversible and can tip the climate to permanently higher temperatures. In our model, delaying abatement can lead to larger changes in climate than doing nothing, reducing welfare for all generations. In contrast, immediate policy action can raise welfare for all generations.
Finally we question the standard use of infinitely-lived, single-agent models, which assume, unrealistically, intergenerational altruism in determining optimal abatement policy. Their prescriptions can differ, potentially dramatically, from those needed to correct the negative climate externality today’s generations are imposing on tomorrow’s.
Trends and projections in the EU ETS in 2016 — The EU Emissions Trading System in numbers. European Environment Agency, 2016, 82 p. (EEA Report No 24/2016) http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/trends-and-projections-EU-ETS-2016
The report provides an analysis of past, present and future emissions trends under the EU ETS, based on the latest data and information available from the European Commission and Member States. It also analyses the balance between supply and demand of allowances in the market. The report’s annexes provide extensive material describing the functioning, scope and cap of the EU ETS.
Orchestrating Experimentation in Non-State Environmental Commitments / Kenneth W. Abbott, Arizona State University, 12 Sept. 2016, 42 p. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2851650
A striking development in climate governance is the emergence of systems for non-state actors to make voluntary commitments alongside state undertakings. Because these commitments involve diverse actors carrying out diverse activities in diverse settings, they provide unprecedented opportunities for experimentation and learning. Yet voluntary commitment systems (VCS) rarely promote experimentation and provide few systematic learning mechanisms. I argue, based on work with Duncan Snidal, for a more strongly experimental approach. First, VCS should encourage designed, controlled policy experiments consistent with scientific standards. Second, even where formal experiments are infeasible, VCS should treat commitments as informal experiments, orchestrating them to promote innovation, comparability, analysis and systematic learning. Collaborative initiatives and other actors can act as orchestrators, encouraging and supporting formal and informal experimentation through persuasion, technical and material assistance, recognition, third-party assistance and other incentives.
La justice climatique : enjeux et perspectives pour la France / Jean Jouzel et Agnès Michelot. Conseil économique, social et environnemental, septembre 2016, 114 p. http://www.lecese.fr/travaux-publies/la-justice-climatique-enjeux-et-perspectives-pour-la-france
Même limité à 2 °C, le réchauffement climatique aura des conséquences auxquelles notre société devra s’adapter. Certain.e.s auront les moyens de le faire, d’autres pas. Le risque que ne se creusent les inégalités est réel. L’objectif de la justice climatique est de tout faire pour que le réchauffement n’accroisse pas les inégalités. Elle est apparue comme une thématique centrale à l’ouverture de la COP 21. La justice climatique porte une nouvelle logique d’élaboration et d’articulation des politiques publiques d’atténuation et d’adaptation. Elle doit permettre de préserver efficacement et durablement le droit à un environnement sain pour toutes et tous y compris pour les plus démuni.e.s et les plus vulnérables au changement climatique. L’avis, rappelant que le CESE soutient la lutte contre toutes les formes d’inégalités, veut ouvrir la voie d’un consensus pour l’action. Par ses propositions, il engage les pouvoirs publics et la société à limiter et réduire les inégalités sociales et économiques générées par le réchauffement planétaire.
OpenEdition vous propose de citer ce billet de la manière suivante :
Danièle Revel (18 octobre 2016). Climat : papiers de recherche moissonnés (18/10/2016). Veille énergie climat. Consulté le 21 janvier 2025 à l’adresse https://doi.org/10.58079/oce6
