Energie : papiers de recherche moissonnés (28/10/2016)

World Energy Resources 2016. London : World Energy Council, 2016, 1028 p. http://www.worldenergy.org/publications/2016/world-energy-resources-2016/

The World Energy Resources have been produced by the World Energy Council for over 80 years. The details and analysis provide a unique data set that allows governments, private sector and academia to better understand the reality of the energy sector and the resource developments. The assessments are compiled with our network of member committees in over 90 countries along with a panel of experts who provide insights from across the globe. With information covering more than 180 countries, this is the 24th edition of the World Energy Resources report.
The report includes 13 chapters, which cover coal, oil, gas, uranium & nuclear, hydropower, bioenergy, waste-to-energy, solar, geothermal, wind, marine and two cross cutting topics, energy storage and CC(U)S. The reputation and value of the study rests on three main factors: the study presents unbiased data and facts from an independent and impartial organisation, it covers technological, economic and environmental aspects of conventional and renewable sources, and it provides assessments on global, regional and country levels prepared by an international network of respected experts.

Mexico Energy Outlook (part of the IEA’s World Energy Outlook (WEO) series). Paris : IEA, Oct. 2016, 129 p. http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/mexico-energy-outlook.html

Mexico is recasting its entire energy system, in line with a far-reaching Energy Reform package adopted by the government in 2013. How might the multiple changes being implemented today change the energy scene of tomorrow? This analysis provides a comprehensive assessment of Mexico’s energy demand and supply outlook to 2040. The report maps out the implications of the Reforma Energética across the energy economy ; explores the ambition of a reformed power market to meet rising demand, while tapping Mexico’s abundant renewable resources and reducing the costs of power supply ; assesses how and when the new upstream bid rounds can turn around today’s declines in oil and gas output ; identifies the challenges that remain, while also quantifying the value of Mexico’s energy transformation in a “No Reform Case”.>

Making Power Affordable for Africa and Viable for Its Utilities / Masami Kojima and Chris Trimble. World Bank/ESMAP, Oct. 2016, 64 p. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/25091/108555.pdf

Examination of the financial viability of power sectors in 39 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa shows that only two countries have a financially viable power sector, and only 19 cover operating expenditures. Quasi-fiscal deficits average 1.5 percent of gross domestic product. If operational inefficiencies can be eliminated, power sectors in 13 countries become financially viable. In the remaining two-thirds of the countries, tariffs will likely have to be increased even after attaining benchmark operational efficiency. Analysis of power tariffs in another 39 African countries shows that about half of them have small first blocks with low lifeline rates. Data from national household expenditure surveys in 22 African countries show that the subsistence level of grid electricity is affordable to the vast majority of the population in many countries with low rates of access… suite

Perspectives gaz naturel & renouvelable : premier bilan prévisionnel pluriannuel gaz 2016-2035 commun aux opérateurs d’infrastructures gazières. GRDF, GRTgaz, SPEGNN et TIGF , octobre 2016, 96 p.  http://www.grtgaz.com/fileadmin/plaquettes/fr/2016/Perspectives-gaz-naturel-et-renouvelable.pdf

Pour la première fois, GRDF, GRTgaz, SPEGNN et TIGF publient un bilan prévisionnel pluriannuel commun de la demande de gaz en France. Cette vision prospective à l’horizon 2035 s’inscrit dans le cadre de la loi relative à la transition énergétique pour la croissance verte. Désormais, les gestionnaires des réseaux de transport et de distribution de gaz ont la responsabilité d’établir ce document de référence sur les perspectives d’évolution de la consommation de gaz et de la production de gaz renouvelable… suite du communiqué

South American Gas Markets and the Role of LNG / Anouk Honoré. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, Oct. 2016, 155 p. (OIES paper ; NG 114) https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/south-american-gas-markets-role-lng/

South America has long been isolated from other natural gas markets, focusing instead on achieving self sufficiency and regional integration. As a consequence, it has never been at the centre of discussions in the natural gas industry until the region decided to turn to Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) in 2008 following shortages of natural gas production, tensions over price renegotiations and shortfalls of contracted deliveries. LNG imports only started in the late 2000s but reached 17.2 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2015. Despite relatively small volumes at the global scale, representing less than 5% of the world LNG trades, if the pace continues, the region could become an important player reducing the scale of flows to Europe, the swing market for LNG. This was the starting point of this research, which was carried out with the objective to propose an overview of the gas demand fundamentals to 2030 horizons in a comprehensive way with some highlights of individual market trends (the paper focuses on Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela). The scenarios will need to be updated as policies/prices/generation mix evolve in the future, but the main conclusion of this research is that, as of mid 2016, South America is not expected to be a major future LNG market unless there are extreme climatic conditions, which will not happen every year and will not last many years. LNG will remain necessary to supply much needed flexibility, additional volumes, security of supply and to reach new markets far from infrastructure, but there are also major uncertainties on volumes, prices, timeframe, location and even direction of the LNG flows as some importers could turn exporters at times of low demand toward the end of the timeframe.

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