Energie : papiers de recherche moissonnés (29/11/2016)

Informed Trading in Oil-Futures Market / O. Rousse and B. Sévi. Milan : Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, 2016, 39 p. (Nota di Lavoro 70.2016) http://www.feem.it/userfiles/attach/201611161212294NDL2016-070.pdf

The weekly release of the U.S. inventory level by the DOE-EIA is known as the market mover in the U.S. oil futures market and to be a significant piece of information for all world oil markets in which the WTI is a price benchmark. We uncover suspicious trading patterns in the WTI futures markets in days when the inventory level is released that are higher than economists’ forecasts: there are significantly more orders initiated by buyers in the two hours preceding the official release of the inventory level. We also show a clear drop in the average price of -0.25% ahead of the news release. This is consistent with informed trading. We also provide evidence of an asymmetric response of the oil price to the news, and highlight an over-reaction that is partly compensated in the hours following the announcement.

Access to Modern Energy: a Review of Barriers, Drivers and Impacts / J. Bonan,  S. Pareglio, M. Tavoni. Milan : Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, 2016, 45 p. (Nota di Lavoro 68.2016) http://www.feem.it/userfiles/attach/20161191124444NDL2016-068.pdf

Universal access to modern energy services, in terms of access to electricity and to modern cooking facilities, has been recognized as a fundamental challenge for development. Despite strong praise for action and the deployment of large-scale electrification programs and improved cookstove (ICS) distribution campaigns, few studies have shed light on the barriers to, the enablers of and the impacts of access to energy on development outcomes, using rigorous methodologies. This paper reviews this recent strand of research, trying to fill these gaps. We focus on the demand-side and household perspective. Our main outcomes of interest are electricity connection and ICS adoption for the analysis of barriers, time allocation, labour market outcomes and welfare for the impact analysis. We provide evidence of significant wellbeing impacts of electrification, and mixed evidence for cookstoves.

Impact of variable renewable production on electricity prices in Germany : a Markov switching model / Cyril Martin de lagarde and Frédéric Lantz. Chaire European electricity markets, 22 Nov. 2016 http://www.ceem-dauphine.org/working/fr/IMPACT-OF-VARIABLE-RENEWABLE-PRODUCTION-ON-ELECTRICITY-PRICES-IN-GERMANY-A-MARKOV-SWITCHING-MODEL

Abstract : This paper aims at assessing the impact of renewable energy sources (RES) production on electricity spot prices. To do so, we use a two-regime Markov Switching (MS) model, that enables to disentangle the so-called “merit-order effect” due to wind and solar photovoltaic productions (used in relative share of the electricity demand), depending on the price being high or low…

Le rebond des prix pétroliers : le « fine tuning » de l’OPEP en question / Yves Jégourel. OCP policy Center, novembre 2016, 7 p. (Policy Brief PB-16/29) http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:ppaper:pb-16/29

En actant, fin septembre 2016, qu’il était nécessaire de réduire l’offre de brut, l’Organisation des pays producteurs de pétrole (OPEP) a de toute évidence marqué les esprits. Conjugué à l’amélioration de certains fondamentaux, l’accord de principe ainsi obtenu a créé les conditions d’un rebond des prix pétroliers. Des dynamiques spéculatives visant à tirer profit de cette embellie sont néanmoins à l’oeuvre, dans un contexte de marché où les surcapacités de production demeurent présentes. La remontée des cours demeure fragile et ce n’est que si l’OPEP parvient à donner à cet accord une portée opérationnelle sur le moyen terme qu’un changement de paradigme pourra s’effectuer. Outre les contraintes (géo) politiques fortes que cela implique, force est de constater que la tâche sera rude. L’OPEP devra en effet composer avec la réalité de l’offre mondiale et s’engager dans une politique de « fine tuning » visant à maintenir les cours dans une bande de fluctuation permettant d’améliorer la situation financière de ses membres, sans néanmoins (trop) relancer la production des autres pays producteurs…

Chasing the Dragon? China’s coal overcapacity crisis and what it means for investors / Matt Gray. Carbon Tracker, Nov. 2016, 56 p.  http://www.carbontracker.org/report/chasing-the-dragon-china-coal-power-plants-stranded-assets-five-year-plan/

China is currently building more coal plants than it needs and in doing so is misallocating capital at an unprecedented rate. As of July 2016, China has 895 GW of existing coal capacity being used less than half of the time – and perversely has 205 GW under construction and another 405 GW of capacity planned, with a total overnight capital cost of half a trillion US dollars. This misallocation of capital is a microcosm of wider structural woes within the Chinese economy. China’s rapid economic growth, demographic profile and geographical size has meant it often made sense for the government to build power infrastructure first and ask questions later. The days when China could grow at a fast pace by accumulating capital, safe in the knowledge that this capital would achieve high returns, appear to be over.

Efficiency first : from principle to practice : real world examples from across Europe / Jan Rosenow, Edith Bayer, Barbara Rososińska, Quentin Genard, Marta Toporek. Energy Union Choice ; RAP ; Client Earth ;E3G, November 2016, 24 p. https://www.e3g.org/library/efficiency-first-and-where-to-find-it

Policy-makers continue to favour building pipelines and new generation capacity without being sure that this is the most cost-effective solution. Energy Efficiency and demand-side management are genuine yet undervalued alternatives that should be consider on a par with supply-side options…

Plugging the Energy Gap : fulfilling the UK’s need for a secure,  21st century power system at least cost / Simon Skillings and Tom Lafford. E3G, November 2016, 27 p. https://www.e3g.org/library/plugging-the-energy-gap

This new E3G report based on analysis from Imperial College London shows that the UK urgently needs to develop a flexible power system. The report lays to rest the argument of a preventative ‘hidden’ cost of renewable power. Investment in grid flexibility lowers the final costs for the grid and for bill payers. This is because the variable output of renewable technology can either be covered by building half as much low carbon generation again, or, cheaper, some flexibility.

India’s Upstream Revival – HELP or Hurdle? / Anupama Sen. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, November 2016, 17 p. (Oxford energy comment) https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/indias-upstream-revival-help-hurdle/

Following several years of stagnation, India’s government is attempting to revive its upstream exploration sector through the launch of a new Hydrocarbon Exploration Licensing Policy (HELP), comprising a set of measures including: a single licence for conventional and unconventional hydrocarbons, open acreage licensing, a revenue sharing model, and commercial and marketing (pricing) freedom. The policy appears to be aimed at reducing administrative costs, preventing the recurrence of past disputes and arbitration, and recognizing India’s former, limited capacity to regulate and administer Production Sharing Contracts (PSCs). The first test of the new regime is a round of auctions for 67 marginal fields which previously formed part of the ‘legacy assets’ held by India’s National Oil Companies (NOCs). This Comment argues that India’s upstream sector is still characterized by certain features – such as the concentration of acreage holdings – which have impeded its past performance and as yet remain unresolved. Consequently, HELP risks ending up being another hurdle if it does little to address the government’s objectives for the upstream sector within broader Indian energy policy.

Donner une valeur monétaire à l’environnement, une aide pour la décision publique ? Le cas de la gestion des déchets et du solaire photovoltaïque à Paris / Magali Domergue. Thèse Ecole des hautes études en sciences sociales, 4/11/2016 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01399665

Abstract : This thesis aims to explore the monetization potential of non-market values in the environmental sector, for public decisions, through the analysis of two examples : renewable energy produced by photovoltaic solar panels and household waste management. Thus, it was necessary to create a valuation weighting factors reference base, so as to convert the impact of quantitative flows (tons of CO2 , kg of nitrogen oxide emissions…) into monetized value (euro per CO2, euro per kgNOx…). The economic and environmental assessments of the installation of photovoltaic panels on municipal buildings in Paris show a resulting social cost. Concerning domestic waste management in Paris in 2007, monetized data brought forth several interesting facts : environmental benefit of recycling, environmental performance of the SYCTOM incinerators… The analysis was undertaken by pursuing a 30 year projection. This analysis served as a reference to study the effectiveness of actions to improve the future environmental performance thus highlighting another benefit of monetization, which is the possibility to develop and analyze scenarios under budget constraint. The results based on WF coming from different studies and settings are weak but preferable to the lack of data which may lead to potentially arbitrary decisions and therefore contrary to environmental interest (secondary effects not taken into account, mobilizing budget for limited effects…). These verifiable results with ranges of uncertainty represent support of discussion around a single aggregate indicator easier to handle and more comprehensible than multiple physical flows of impacts. A wide set of referenced WF accompanied by rules of use and rules of evolution would allow developing interest in monetization in France and thus generating decision tools.

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