Climat : papiers de recherche moissonnés (5 décembre 2016)
Champions climatiques ? France, Allemagne et Europe dans les négociations pour l’Accord de Paris sur le climat / Stefan Aykut. Paris : Ifri, mai 2016, 30 p. (Notes. Visions franco-allemandes ; 27.) https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01403152
Analyse du rôle de l’Allemagne et de la France dans la COP21
Carbon Dioxide Emission-Intensity in Climate Projections: Comparing the Observational Record to Socio-Economic Scenarios / Felix Pretis and Max Roser. Oxford University. Department of Economics, Nov. 2016, 28 p. (discussion paper ; 810) http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:810
The large span of long-run projected temperature changes in climate projections does not predominately originate from uncertainty across climate models; instead it is the wide range of different global socio-economic scenarios and the implied energy production that results in high uncertainty about climate change. It is therefore important to assess the observational tracking of these scenarios. For the first time observations over two decades are available against which the initial sets of socio-economic scenarios used in IPCC reports can be assessed. Here we compare these socio-economic scenarios created in both 1992 and 2000 against the recent observational record to investigate the coupling of economic growth and fossil-fuel CO2 emissions. We find that the growth rate in fossil fuel CO2 emission intensity – fossil fuel CO2 emissions per GDP – over the 2000s exceeds the projections of all main emission scenarios. Proposing a method to disaggregate differences in global growth rates to country-by-country contributions, we find that the relative discrepancy is driven by high growth rates in Asia and Eastern Europe, in particular in Russia and China. The growth of emission intensity over the 2000s highlights the relevance of unforeseen local shifts in projections on a global scale.
Deadline 2020 : how cities will get the job done. C4O Cities ; Arup, 2016, 59 p. http://www.c40.org/researches/deadline-2020
An analysis of the contribution C40 cities can make to delivering the Paris Agreement objective of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees.
A new behavioral framework to analyze preference construction and decision processes within the modal choice / Hugo Bois. Chaire Economie du climat, septembre 2016, 30 p. (WP #2016-08) http://www.chaireeconomieduclimat.org/publications/wp-2016-08-a-new-behavioral-framework-to-analyze-preference-construction-and-decision-processes-within-the-modal-choice
This paper discusses a new framework to explain the decision-making process of modal choice. A specific approach, based on the behavioral framework developed by Ben-Akiva & Boccara (1987), is adopted to understand and analyze the decision processes of individuals. Precisely, we use the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to build the hierarchy of preferences from attitudes and perceptions. Through the hierarchy of preferences, we can apply three different methods to better explain the decision processes; namely a standard compensatory model, a non-compensatory model based on the decision rules, and different possible weightings of the AHP method. The random utility maximization is predominantly used in the transportation literature because of its strong theoretical background, its success in predicting many types of human behavior, and the simplicity of mathematical and statistical analyses and model estimation it offers. Despite that, we believe that non-compensatory approaches are better suited to understand both travel behaviors and decision processes for transportation modes when taking active modes into account. These approaches allow us to better explain the impacts of each modal attribute on the one hand and to build psychological profiles with respect to decision rules on the other hand. Thus, it is possible to simulate shocks all things being equal.
Merchants of Doubt : Corporate Political Influence when Expert Credibility is Uncertain / Mireille Chiroleu-Assouline et Thomas Lyon. 34 p. (Working Paper FAERE, n°2016.28) http://faere.fr/pub/WorkingPapers/Chiroleu-Assouline_Lyon_FAERE_WP2016.28.pdf
L’un des rôles clés des organisations non gouvernementales (ONG) d’expertise scientifique est de contribuer à la transmission des connaissances scientifiques aux législateurs. Cependant, il a pu être récemment constaté que des groupes d’intérêt favorables aux intérêts industriels tentent souvent d’affaiblir la capacité de ces ONG à influencer le processus de décision politique en sapant leur crédibilité ou en suscitant l’intervention d’experts soutenant des avis contraires. Comme l’ont montré les journalistes Naomi Oreskes et Eric Conway dans leur livre « Merchants of Doubt » (2009), cela a été le cas pour les effets du tabac sur la santé, le trou dans la couche d’ozone et le changement climatique… lire la suite
UNFCCC Climate Transparency: Lessons Learned / Jennifer Huang. Center for climate and energy solutions (C2ES), November 2016, 4 p. http://www.c2es.org/publications/unfccc-climate-transparency-lessons-learned
The Paris Agreement establishes an “enhanced transparency framework” to build mutual trust and confidence and to promote effective implementation. This framework combines common reporting and review requirements for all parties with “built-in flexibility” for developing countries. The agreement requires that parties, in elaborating the operational details of the transparency framework, build on experience with existing transparency arrangements under the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Over the past year, developed and developing countries have shared their experiences with the existing transparency system in a variety of public forums. This brief highlights key lessons learned that can help inform the design of the Paris transparency framework.
Are China’s Climate Commitments in a Post-Paris Agreement Sufficiently Ambitious? / ZhongXiang Zhang. Milan : Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, 2016, 24 p. (nota di lavoro ; 2016-067) http://www.feem.it/userfiles/attach/20161131236574NDL2016-067.pdf
In international climate change negotiations, China’s role is an issue of perennial concern. In particular, the lack of quantitative, absolute emissions commitments from China has been the focus. In line with changing domestic and international contexts, China is recalibrating its stance and strategy. Its participation in international climate change negotiations has evolved from playing a peripheral role to gradually moving to the centre. This article examines China’s stance and role in international climate change negotiations from a historical perspective. In so doing, the article discusses the evolution of international climate negotiations and China’s stance in the lead-up to and at the Paris conference. With Paris behind us, the focus is now turning to the implementation of the Paris Agreement. The article discusses post-Paris issues in the international context and in particular in China’s context. These affect the post Paris negotiations and hold the key to achieving desired outcomes.