Climat : papiers de recherche moissonnés (13 décembre 2016)

Corrective Policy and Goodhart’s Law: The Case of Carbon Emissions from Automobiles / Mathias Reynaert, James M. Sallee. Dec. 2016 (NBER Working Paper No. 22911) http://www.nber.org/papers/w22911 – draft : https://nature.berkeley.edu/~sallee/reynaertsallee_gamingnber.pdf

Firms sometimes comply with externality-correcting policies by gaming the measure that determines policy. We show theoretically that such gaming can benefit consumers, even when it induces them to make mistakes, because gaming leads to lower prices by reducing costs. We use our insights to quantify the welfare effect of gaming in fuel-consumption ratings for automobiles, which we show increased sharply following aggressive policy reforms. We estimate a structural model of the car market and derive empirical analogs of the price effects and choice distortions identified by theory. We find that price effects outweigh distortions; on net, consumers benefit from gaming.

The Cost of Climate Stabilization in Southeast Asia, a Joint Assessment with Dynamic Optimization and CGE Model / Francesco Bosello, Giacomo Marangoni, Carlo Orecchia, David A. Raitzer, Massimo Tavoni. Milan : Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, 2016, 39 p. (nota di lavoro ; 2016.076) http://www.feem.it/userfiles/attach/2016125112474NDL2016-076.pdf

Southeast Asia is at a time one of the most vulnerable region to the impacts of a changing climate, with millions of its inhabitants still trapped in extreme poverty without access to energy and employed in climate-sensitive sectors, and, potentially, one of the world’s biggest contributors to global warming in the future. Fortunately, major Southeast Asian countries are also implementing policies to improve their energy and carbon efficiency and are discussing if and how to extend these further. The present study aims to assess the implications for energy consumption, energy intensity and carbon intensity in the Southeast Asia region of a set of short-term and long-term de-carbonization policies characterized by different degrees of ambition and international cooperation. The analysis applies two energy-climate-economic models. The first, the fully dynamic Integrated Assessment model WITCH, is more aggregated in the sectoral and country representation, but provides a detailed technological description of the energy sector. The second, the ICES Computable General Equilibrium model, offers a richer sectoral breakdown of the economy and of international trade patterns, but is less refined in the representation of technology. The joint application of these two complementary models allows the capture of distinct and key aspects of low- carbon development paths in Southeast Asia.

Decarbonization Pathways in Southeast Asia: New Results for Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam / Francesco Bosello, Carlo Orecchia, David A. Raitzer. Milan : Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, 2016, 62 p. (nota di lavoro ; 2016.075) http://www.feem.it/userfiles/attach/2016125119134NDL2016-075.pdf

Southeast Asia is one of the most vulnerable regions of the world to the impacts of climate change. At the same time, the region is also following a trajectory that could make it a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions in the future. Understanding the economic implications of policy options for low carbon growth is essential to formulate instruments that achieve the greatest emissions reductions at lowest cost. This study focuses on five developing countries of Southeast Asia that collectively account for 90% of regional emissions in recent years—Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam. The analyses are based on the CGE economy-energy-environment model ICES under an array of scenarios reflecting business as usual, fragmented climate policies, an approximately 2.4°C post 2020 global climate stabilization target, termed 650 parts per million (ppm) carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent (eq), and an approximately 2°C global target (termed 500 ppm CO2 eq). Averted deforestation through reducing emissions from forest degradation and deforestation (REDD) is included in some scenarios. The study shows that global and coordinated action is found to be critical to the cost effectiveness of emissions stabilization policies. A 650ppm stabilization scenario (below 3°C in 2100) has a similar cost to the region to current fragmented targets, but achieves much higher levels of emissions reductions.  However, only some of the countries have short-term emissions targets that are consistent with a stabilization scenario at 650ppm: these are Indonesia, Philippines and Viet Nam. None of the countries’ mid-term targets are coherent with more ambitious stabilization scenario at 500ppm.

Policy- v. Individual Heterogeneity in the Benefits of Climate Change Mitigation: Evidence from a Stated-Preference Survey. Milan : Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, 2016, 33 p. (nota di lavoro ; 2016.074) http://www.feem.it/userfiles/attach/20161129121904NDL2016-074.pdf

The implementation of decarbonization policies depends crucially on the public’s willingness to pay for them. We use stated preference methods to investigate the public’s preferences for such policies. We ask three research questions. First, does the willingness to pay (WTP) for each ton of CO2 emissions reductions depend on the policies and on individual characteristics of the respondents? Second, how extensive is the variation associated with these factors? Third, what factors affect support for or opposition to a carbon tax? Based on the responses to discrete choice experiments from a sample of Italians, we find that the WTP per ton of CO2 ranges between € 6 and 130, depending on whether the public program is based on taxes, incentives, information-based approaches or standards. Further allowing for individual characteristics of the respondents, such as gender or education, and knowledge of climate change, results in a 300% change in WTP, holding the policy instrument the same. We conclude that the variation associated with the policy instrument is approximately of the same order of magnitude as that associated with individual characteristics of the respondents.

Panorama des financements climat, édition 2016 : résumé pour décideurs / Hadrien Hainaut, Ian Cochran, Romain Morel. IC4E, décembre 2016, 4 p. http://www.i4ce.org/download/panorama-financements-climat-edition-2016/

Pour mieux comprendre le financement de la lutte contre le changement climatique et de la transition énergétique, l’étude a recensé les investissements qui contribuent à la réduction des émissions de gaz à effet de serre en France. Ces dépenses sont analysées afin de savoir quels acteurs ont engagé ces projets et comment ils sont financés…

Danièle Revel

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