Energie : papiers de recherche moissonnés (21 février 2017)

Coûts et bénéfices d’un plan de rénovation des passoires énergétiques à l’horizon 2025 : étude économique. Initiative Rénovons, février 2017, 50 p. http://renovons.org/IMG/pdf/2017-02-21_-_sce_nario_re_novons_.pdf

L’initiative Rénovons ! a consolidé sa vision des améliorations qui doivent être apportées à l’écosystème de la rénovation énergétique en France grâce à la réalisation d’un scénario prospectif de rénovation de toutes les passoires énergétiques en France d’ici à 2025 conformément aux ambitions de la Loi de transition énergétique pour la croissance verte. Ce scénario produit pour Rénovons ! grâce à la collaboration de SIA Partners quantifie les coûts et les bénéfices de la rénovation de toutes les passoires énergétiques en France. Pour la première fois en France un scénario projette la rénovation de tous les logements de classe énergétiques F et G d’ici à 2025 : la rénovation de ces 7,4 millions de logements générera de multiples effets bénéfiques. Une économie redynamisée, une population en meilleure santé, un confort des logements largement amélioré et une pollution diminuée sont quelques exemples effets vertueux de la mise en œuvre de ce plan ambitieux.

Russian Oil Production Outlook to 2020 / James Henderson and Ekaterina Grushevenko. Oxford Institute for Enery Studies, Feb. 2017, 19 p. (Energy Insight: 3) https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/russian-oil-production-outlook-to-2020/

This paper, carried out as a joint piece of research by OIES and ERI RAS (the Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences) assesses the prospects for Russian oil production to 2020 and beyond, and suggests that the history of steady growth seen over the past decade is set to continue. Brownfield decline is being actively managed, a portfolio of greenfields has and is being developed which can more than compensate for the decline in mature assets and in the longer-term regions such as the offshore, East Siberia and tight oil offer significant upside. The recent agreement to cut overall production in H1 2016 will create a short-term brake on growth, but the average for 2017 should still be almost 2% higher than for 2016. Meanwhile, sanctions are continuing to affect the use of technology for some of Russia’s harder to develop reserves. Nevertheless, our analysis on both a corporate and regional level suggests that, barring another collapse in the oil price or a further tightening of sanctions, the outlook for Russian oil production over the next few years remains positive.

Cost-effectiveness and Incidence of Renewable Energy Promotion in Germany / Christoph Böhringer,Florian Landis, Miguel Angel Tovar Reanos. Centre for European Economic Research, 2017, 29 p. (ZEW Discussion Paper No. 17-004) http://ftp.zew.de/pub/zew-docs/dp/dp17004.pdf

Over the last decade Germany has boosted renewable energy in power production by means of massive subsidies. The flip side are very high electricity prices which raises concerns that the transition cost towards a renewable energy system will be mainly borne by poor households. In this paper, we combine computable general equilibrium and microsimulation analysis to investigate the cost-effectiveness and incidence of Germany’s renewable energy promotion. We find that the regressive effects of renewable energy promotion could be ameliorated by alternative subsidy financing mechanisms which achieve the same level of electricity generation from renewable energy sources.

Beyond the supercycle: How technology is reshaping resources / Jonathan Woetzel, Richard Sellschop, Michael Chui, Sree Ramaswamy, Scott Nyquist, Harry Robinson, Occo Roelofsen, Matt Rogers, and Rebecca Ross. McKinsey Global Institute, Feb. 2017, 116 p. http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/sustainability-and-resource-productivity/our-insights/how-technology-is-reshaping-supply-and-demand-for-natural-resources

The report focuses on these three trends and finds they have the potential to unlock around $900 billion to $1.6 trillion in savings throughout the global economy in 2035 (exhibit), an amount equivalent to the current GDP of Canada or Indonesia. At least two-thirds of this total value is derived from reduced demand for energy as a result of greater energy productivity, while the remaining one-third comes from productivity savings captured by resource producers. Demand for a range of commodities, particularly oil, could peak in the next two decades, and prices may diverge widely. How large this opportunity ends up being depends not only on the rate of technological adoption but also on the way resource producers and policy makers adapt to their new environment.

The Emerging Hydrocarbon Interdependence between Russia and China: Institutional and Systemic Implications / C. Locatelli, M. Abbas and S. Rossiaud. Europe-Asia Studies, vol. 69, n° 1, pp. 157-170  http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09668136.2016.1274020

The different agreements on oil and natural gas signed by Russian and Chinese companies testify to the profound changes in the oil and gas policies of both Russia and China. We stress the importance of the contractual norms which structure the energy interdependency of the countries involved. As there is no international multilateral framework able to manage energy supply security, the way the countries involved construct their energy interdependence to an extent defines models of sectoral governance.

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