Energie : papiers de recherche moissonnés (18 avril 2017)

Renewables Global Futures Report : Great debates towards 100% renewable energy. Paris, REN21 Secretariat, April 2017, 98 p. http://www.ren21.net/future-of-renewables/global-futures-report/

This new REN21 Renewables Global Futures Report presents views of 114 renowned energy experts from around the world, on the feasibility and challenges of achieving a 100% renewable energy future. Their thoughts are grouped into 12 Great Debates ranging from the future of heating and transport, the interconnection of sectors, the role of mega-cities and what utilities of the future could look like. The report does not predict the future but should spur debate about the opportunities and challenges of a 100% renewable energy future.

Managing Electricity Decarbonisation:learning from experience – the cases of the UK and Spain / David Robinson & Malcolm Keay, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, April 2017, 11 p. (Energy insight ; 6) https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/managing-electricity-decarbonisation-learning-experience-cases-uk-spain/

In a recent paper we provide an extended comparison of the measures taken by the UK and Spain in support of the decarbonisation of their electricity sectors.  This short article draws on the results of that study.

The background is that the EU is aiming for an Energy Union; member states have common targets; and the Commission is trying to harmonise policy approaches to issues like the decarbonisation of electricity.  So it might be expected that member states would all have very similar measures in place.  In fact, there are huge differences between countries.  This study compares the approaches in Spain and the UK in order to understand what works best and what lessons can be learned from their experience. It also includes an annex on the energy implications of Brexit.

L’hydroélectricité, le mariage de l’eau et de l’énergie / Yves Giraud, Responsabilité et environnement, n° 86, 2017, pp. 31-35 http://www.cairn.info/resume.php?ID_ARTICLE=RE1_086_0031

L’hydroélectricité est aujourd’hui à la confluence des grands enjeux de l’eau, de l’énergie, de l’environnement et du climat – autant de défis auxquels elle peut répondre positivement, grâce aux nouvelles techniques dont nous disposons aujourd’hui. Si ces différents enjeux sont mal gérés dans le cadre de politiques disjointes, ils peuvent se révéler vite contradictoires entre eux (par exemple, la volonté de développer une énergie renouvelable pour lutter contre le réchauffement climatique et celle de la préservation des espaces naturels et du bon état écologique des cours d’eau). Au contraire, s’ils sont bien gérés et correctement coordonnés par les États et les exploitants, l’hydraulique sera alors appelée à jouer un rôle de premier plan dans le monde, en tant qu’énergie renouvelable apportant sa flexibilité et sa capacité de stocker à la fois de l’eau et de l’énergie.

The vanishing LNG market in Brazil / Ieda Gomes, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, April 2017, 7 p. (Oxford Energy comment) https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/vanishing-lng-market-brazil/

Over the past two to three years growing LNG demand in South America has provided an important outlet for LNG supply, in particular in 2016 when the majority of new US LNG exports ended up being delivered to the region. However, towards the end of the year and into 2017 that extra demand has fallen sharply, due to a number of factors discussed in this Comment. The overall conclusion, though, is that just as the much anticipated wave of new LNG projects is set to come online, so one of the major growth markets has gone into decline. This may be a temporary phenomenon, as it has much to do with weather patterns and economic growth, but the rise in Brazilian domestic gas production suggests that at least one longer term trend is pointing toward lower LNG requirements, at least in the short to medium term. This Comment assesses the overall state of Brazilian (and Argentinian) LNG demand and discusses the potential impact on regional and global gas markets.

Does the Portfolio Business Model Spell the End of Long-Term Oil-Indexed LNG Contracts? / Howard Rogers, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, April 2017, 21 p. (Energy insight) https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/portfolio-business-model-spell-end-long-term-oil-indexed-lng-contracts/

Historically the cornerstone of the LNG industry has been the long-term oil indexed contract with restrictions on destination flexibility. However, market liberalisation in North America, the UK and Northwest continental Europe, the temptation to make contracts more flexible to capture arbitrage upside and large volumes of destination flexible US LNG under development – have encouraged the rise of ‘portfolio players’ applying advanced trading optimisation skills to their ‘webs’ of supply sources and destination markets to derive additional value through supplying non-supply source specific LNG to buyers.  LNG traders have also developed a similar, more ‘asset-light’ version of this model.

The paper argues that, despite the challenging period to 2021 with a soft market or ‘glut’ of LNG, the majors amongst the portfolio players are well placed for the next wave of new supply projects in the mid 2020s, due to the synergies from existing positions, advantaged cost of debt and more flexible contracting/sales and pricing strategies.

With the uncertainties concerning future Asian LNG demand growth, the wane of oil indexation as a workable pricing mechanism in Asia and the perhaps more modest scale of the mid 2020s LNG supply growth wave, this could see non-Majors and energy sector banks ‘left on the starting blocks’ if they do not adapt to this transition.

Qatar Lifts its LNG Moratorium / Howard Rogers, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, April 2017, 7 p. (Oxford Energy comment) https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/qatar-lifts-lng-moratorium/

The recently announced intention by Qatar to lift its long-running moratorium on new LNG projects and to produce some 20 bcma of LNG in 5 to 7 years’ time is a highly significant development for the LNG industry.  With its low-cost base and high condensate and LPG co-production, Qatar can compete with any of the established LNG suppliers (as well as Russian pipeline gas). This Comment assesses the implications for the market and addresses possible reasons for the timing of the announcement. The re-engagement of Qatar in the development of new LNG supplies is potentially good news for consumers but somewhat worrying for upstream players sitting on inherently high cost competing projects…

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