Energie : papiers de recherche moissonnés (25 avril 2017)

Better Energy, Greater Prosperity : Achievable pathways to low-carbon energy systems. Energy Transitions Commission, April 2017, 120 p. http://www.energy-transitions.org/better-energy-greater-prosperity

New report outlines opportunity to halve global carbon emissions by 2040 – but governments, investors and businesses must act now to accelerate energy transitions. The Energy Transitions Commission’s flagship report, launched on 25 April 2017, sets out achievable pathways to limit global warming to well below 2˚C while stimulating economic development and social progress.
We must reduce carbon emissions by half by 2040 (compared to a business as usual scenario) with further cuts thereafter to achieve the Paris climate objective – limiting global warming to well below 2°C. Simultaneously, we must ensure economic economic development and access to affordable, sustainable and reliable energy for all, particularly in developing countries. According to the Better Energy, Greater Prosperity report, this is achievable – but business, government and investors must act now to accelerate clean electrification, decarbonization beyond power and energy productivity improvement.

Turkey’s gas demand decline: reasons and consequences / Gulmira Rzayeva. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, April 2017, 16 p. (Energy insight ; 16) https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/turkeys-gas-demand-decline-reasons-consequences/

Following the introduction of its Gas Market Law in 2001, gas demand in Turkey grew rapidly during the 2000s, tripling to almost 50bcm by 2014. Since then, however, growth has slowed dramatically (even declining in 2016) as the government has come to regard its import dependence (imported gas accounts for 98 per cent of total gas demand) as a security risk. As a result, the country’s new energy focus has been on the development of renewables and the use of domestically produced coal, as well as the development of a nuclear programme, have changed the outlook for the energy balance. Previous positive forecasts for further gas demand growth now seem overly optimistic, and this paper by Gulmira Ryazeva takes a more sober and realistic look at the potential, suggesting that a BOTAŞ forecast of demand reaching 81bcm by 2030 could now be missed by 25 per cent. The paper provides a detailed sectoral breakdown of gas demand, and suggests that while consumption in the industrial and residential sectors may show some growth, gas use in the power sector is set to fall significantly.

The EU Competition Investigation into Gazprom’s Sales to Central and Eastern Europe: a comment on commitments / Jonathan Stern and Katja Yafimava. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, April 2017, 6 p. (Oxford energy comment) https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/eu-competition-investigation-gazproms-sales-central-eastern-europe-comment-commitments/

On 13 March 2017 DG COMP announced its satisfaction with Gazprom’s commitments, submitted in response to DG COMP’s concerns in respect of Gazprom’s alleged anti-competitive practices in several central and east European EU member states, relating to territorial restrictions, pricing, and infrastructure. Gazprom’s commitments have addressed all substantiated DG COMP concerns and their acceptance would provide insurance against any future abuse by Gazprom of its dominant position in these countries. Most importantly, Gazprom has henceforth agreed to charge average weighted import border prices in Germany, France and Italy and/or prices at relevant generally accepted liquid hubs in Continental Europe instead of alternative fuel (oil-linked) prices, despite the fact that at present west European border/hub prices do not (yet) accurately represent gas market conditions in either Bulgaria or the Baltics (and only in the past one to two years, and only approximately in Poland). This means that if the commitments are accepted, buyers in these countries will be able to buy Russian gas at prices which otherwise would not have been offered to them until interconnections had been established with north-west European hubs (potentially up to three years hence). Therefore it is reasonable to expect an overall positive response to the commitments during the (ongoing) market test, followed by DG COMP’s acceptance of the commitments and closure of the case with a settlement. However, it cannot be ruled out that some member states, specifically Poland, might attempt to derail such a settlement. Should that happen and the case be referred to the EU Court of Justice (CJEU), the whole episode could drag on for several more years.

Interactions entre énergie nucléaire et énergies renouvelables variables dans la transition énergétique en France : adaptations du parc électrique vers plus de flexibilité / Camille Cany. Thèse de doctorat, Université Paris-Saclay / Centrale Supelec, 16 mars 2017, 347 p. https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01509918

Le parc électrique français, caractérisé par une part élevée d’électricité nucléaire, est à l’aube d’une période de transition qui s’étendra au-delà de 2050. Cette transition est caractérisée par une augmentation de la part de l’éolien et du solaire et, en parallèle, une réduction de la part du nucléaire dans le mix électrique, laquelle devrait rester toutefois significative. L’intégration de l’éolien et du solaire dans un mix nécessite de mobiliser des moyens de flexibilité supplémentaires pour maintenir le niveau de fiabilité objectif du système, tant dans le court terme que dans le long terme. L’ensemble des leviers du côté de l’offre et de la demande électrique devra être mis en oeuvre pour répondre à ces nouveaux besoins de flexibilité. Le parc nucléaire aura son rôle à jouer.Dans ce contexte, comment la France peut-elle adapter son parc électrique vers plus de flexibilité, tout en conservant un mix bas carbone et en maîtrisant les coûts associés ? L’objectif de la thèse est d’apporter des éclairages à cette question, par l’intermédiaire d’analyses technico-économiques… lire la suite

Danièle Revel

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