Climat : papiers de recherche moissonnés (mercredi 17 mai 2017)

Développement durable : cinq échéances structurantes au cœur du prochain quinquennat / Damien Demailly, Sébastien Treyer, David Levaï, Yann Laurans, Julien Rochette. Paris : Iddri, mai 2017, 4 p. (policy brief ; 06-17)

Transition énergétique, changement climatique, biodiversité, agriculture… Le Président de la République française, le gouvernement et la nouvelle majorité issus des élections de 2017 devront prendre des décisions importantes en matière de développement durable au cours du prochain quinquennat. Leur calendrier sera notamment rythmé par cinq grandes échéances, tant à l’échelle française qu’aux niveaux européen et international.
Ces cinq échéances constituent autant d’opportunités pour adapter l’économie française aux grands enjeux du xxie siècle, ceux d’une mondialisation régulée, alliant prospérité, protection sociale et protection de l’environnement.

Intertemporal abatement decisions under ambiguity under aversion in a cap and trade / Simon Quemin. Chaire économie du climat, Paris Dauphine, May 2017, 53 p. (WP #2017-03)

We study intertemporal abatement decisions by an ambiguity averse firm covered under a cap and trade. Ambiguity aversion is introduced to account for the prevalence of regulatory uncertainty in existing cap-and-trade schemes. Ambiguity bears on both the future permit price and the firm’s demand for permits. Ambiguity aversion drives equilibrium choices away from intertemporal efficiency and induces two effects: a pessimistic distortion of beliefs that overemphasises ‘detrimental’ outcomes and a shift in the effective discount factor. Permit allocation is non neutral and the firm’s intertemporal abatement decisions do not solely depend on expected future permit prices, but also on its own expected future market position. In particular, pessimism leads the expected net short (resp. long) firm to overabate (resp. underabate) early on relative to intertemporal efficiency. We show that there is a general incentive for early overabatement and that it is more pronounced under auctioning that under free allocation.

Enhanced Transparency Framework in the Paris Agreement: Perspective of Parties / Sumit Prasad, Karthik Ganesan and Vaibhav Gupta. Council on Energy, Environment and Water, May 2017, 32 p. (CEEW working paper)

The Working paper looks at the specific components of the modalities, procedures and guidelines (MPGs) for the transparency of action and support under Article 13 of the Paris agreement. It identifies the areas where the transparency can be enhanced, drawing on the experiences of Parties from the existing transparency arrangements. In addition to this, the report also provides an analysis of the different flexibility approaches for the developing countries. To comprehend India’s perspective, the study also proposes India’s position on these provisions in light of the existing monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) arrangements within the country.

Action by China and India slows emissions growth, President Trump’s policies likely to cause US emissions to flatten / Niklas Höhne, Lisa Luna, Hanna Fekete, Sebastian Sterl, Bill Hare, Jasmin Cantzler, Paola Parra, Fabio Sferra, Andrzej Ancygier, Yvonne Deng, Goher Ur Rehman Mir. Ecofys ; NewClimate Institute ; Climate Analytics, 15 May 2017, 9 p.

Global leadership on climate is changing, with positive developments on coal use in China and India likely to reduce projected global carbon emissions by roughly two to three billion tonnes by 2030 compared to our estimate last year. The recent, highly adverse rollbacks by President Trump are unlikely to have a major impact on global emissions by 2030. The Trump Administration’s climate policies, if fully implemented and not compensated by other actors, are projected to flatten US emissions instead of them continuing on a downward trend. China’s coal consumption has declined in three consecutive years (2013 to 2016), and the outlook is for a continued slow decline. India has stated that planned coal-fired power plants may not be needed and with announced policies —if fully implemented— it would see a significant slowing down in the growth of CO2 emissions over the next decade…

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