Energie : papiers de recherche moissonnés (26 juillet 2017)

Wind Capacity Investments: Inefficient Drivers and Long-Term Impacts / Ian Schneider and Mardavij Roozbehani. MIT. Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, January 2017, 20 p. (CEEPR WP 2017-002) http://ceepr.mit.edu/publications/working-papers/655

A pure energy-only market has been shown, under certain conditions, to create the optimal incentives for market entry and exit. This research extends these results to the case of potential entrants with variable and non-controllable production, such as wind generators. The research shows how the stochasticity of the wind resource implies a trade-off between sites with higher capacity factors and higher covariance with prices at the efficient frontier. The analysis suggests that the Production Tax Credit (PTC), along with some capacity mechanisms, bias wind investment towards high-producing sites but with lower covariance of their variable output with market prices. Furthermore, since wind production depresses prices, this bias is linked to covariance between wind sites. Fixed-price support mechanisms like the PTC lead to market equilibriums with higher levels of wind correlation. The long-run effiects of correlation in the wind investment portfolio in a theoretical market are somewhat nuanced, depending on the nature of the joint distribution of wind availability; they may be incorrectly interpreted in the usual discourse.

Estimating The Future Supply of Shale Oil: A Bakken Case Study / James L. Smith. MIT. Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, January 2017, 30 p. (CEEPR WP 2017-001) http://ceepr.mit.edu/publications/working-papers/653

We propose a new way to estimate the remaining volume of recoverable shale oil resources in the U.S. Our method applies the principle of “successive sampling without replacement” to derive from historical drilling data maximum likelihood estimates of the number and productivity of remaining drilling sites. Unlike existing techniques, this approach identifies the portion of “technically recoverable” resources that can be developed economically at alternative price levels. For the Bakken, we estimate that 50% of remaining technically recoverable resources—roughly 8 billion barrels—could be developed if the oil price remains near $50/barrel.

Accelerating the Energy Transition through Innovation / Dolf Gielen, Deger Saygin, Francisco Boshell and Arina Anisie. Abu Dhabi : Irena, June 2017, 128 p. (a working paper based on global REmap analysis) http://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/Publications/IRENA_Energy_Transition_Innovation_2017.pdf

Technological breakthroughs are needed to reduce carbon emissions in the energy sector. Even with economically viable and scalable renewable-based solutions available for around two-thirds of the world’s energy supply, population growth and rising energy demand could outpace energy decarbonisation without urgent investments in research and development (R&D). This working paper from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) examines the basic conditions required to nurture innovation and produce new technologies for a low-carbon future… read more

New Energy Outlook 2017. Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2017 https://about.bnef.com/new-energy-outlook/#toc-download (free executive summary online)

Le solaire et l’éolien vont continuer de chasser le charbon. L’éolien et le solaire sont plus près que jamais d’avoir la peau du charbon, grâce à la baisse continue de leurs coûts qui va les rendre moins chers presque partout dans le monde d’ici moins de cinq ans, selon un rapport d’experts publié jeudi, le New Energy Outlook 2017 de Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), qui se projette en 2040. A cette date, les coûts du solaire vont encore baisser de 66 %, après avoir été divisés par quatre entre 2009 et aujourd’hui. Les coûts de l’éolien terrestre vont pour leur part décroître de 47 % et même de 71 % pour l’éolien en mer. « Le solaire est déjà aussi peu cher que le charbon en Allemagne, Australie, Etats-Unis, Espagne ou Italie. D’ici à 2021, il sera moins cher en Chine, Inde, Mexique, Royaume-Uni et Brésil », fait davoir BNEF. En Chine, où le charbon reste encore de loin la première source d’électricité, il va atteindre un pic en 2026, tandis que sa consommation devrait baisser de 87 % en Europe et de 51 % aux Etats-Unis d’ici à 2040. BNEF s’attend à ce que 369 gigawatts de projets de centrales à charbon soient annulés dans le monde, « dont un tiers en Inde », autre grand pays consommateur de charbon. « La transition bas carbone est encore plus importante que ce que nous avions projeté les années précédentes », assure Jon Moore, président de BNEF. Cela s’explique notamment par le développement attendu du stockage d’énergie, grâce aux batteries lithium-ion, le déploiement des véhicules électriques, ou encore de l’autoconsommation d’énergie solaire, qui vont « réduire la nécessité d’avoir d’importantes centrales à gaz ou à charbon à l’avenir », selon BNEF. En conséquence, les émissions de CO₂ du secteur de l’énergie, responsables principales du réchauffement climatique, devraient atteindre un pic en 2026, et baisser de 4 % d’ici à 2040, par rapport à leur niveau de 2016, selon le rapport.

Biogas: A significant contribution to decarbonising gas markets? / Martin Lambert. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, June 2017, 15 p. (energy insight ; 15) https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/biogas-significant-contribution-decarbonising-gas-markets/

With a current focus on the need to decarbonise the energy system, and increasing interest in decarbonising the gas industry this short paper provides an overview of the current status and considers the potential for further growth in the production and use of biogas and biomethane. It focuses on key countries in Europe, which have been leading the way in commercial scale production, and touches briefly on the potential in the rest of the world. The paper includes a short overview of the feedstocks and technologies involved, an assessment of the potential supply growth, a review of the economics and comparison with alternative approaches towards decarbonising the energy system, and a consideration of the impact of government policy on the rate of growth of the industry.

Danièle Revel

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