Energie : papiers de recherche moissonnés (mercredi 29 novembre 2017)

OPEC’s Hard Choices / Bassam Fattouh. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, November 2017, 5 p. (Oxford energy comment) https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/opecs-hard-choices/

Oil market sentiment has shifted considerably over the last few weeks. Brent is trading above $60 per barrel, the major benchmarks are in backwardation, stocks have been falling towards the five-year average, global oil demand remains strong, financial positioning is at record length, OPEC and non-OPEC compliance has been high, the additional Nigerian and Libyan barrels have been absorbed into the market, geopolitical risks have heightened, multiple disruptions have occurred recently, and OPEC supply risks outside the core Middle East are tilted to the upside. So OPEC seems to be in the controlling seat, or is it? It is at these critical junctures that OPEC and its most important player, Saudi Arabia, face some very hard choices. While OPEC has reasserted some control of the market in the last few months, the room for manoeuvring is getting tighter and tighter. The context in which OPEC operates has been dramatically transformed. One key question that OPEC has to continuously grapple with is whether there is a ‘sweet’ oil price range that does not endanger the prospects of global oil demand while at the same time keeping a lid on oil supply growth, so the market remains in balance. This short article discusses the challenges that OPEC faces in identifying such a sweet price range.

La transition écologique et solidaire à l’échelon local / Bruno Duchemin. Avis du Conseil économique social et environnemental, novembre 2017, 98 p. (CESE 24) http://www.lecese.fr/travaux-publies/la-transition-ecologique-et-solidaire-lechelon-local

La transition écologique et solidaire engage une profonde mutation de notre société qui implique, sur chaque territoire, l’ensemble des acteur.rice.s économiques, sociaux.ales, environnementaux.ales. Il s’agit d’une transformation systémique qui oriente vers un développement durable. Parce qu’elle s’appuie sur l’adhésion et le changement des habitudes et comportements des acteur.rice.s, citoyen.ne.s, elle est aussi une révolution sociétale. Pour l’accélérer, le gouvernement envisage de créer un contrat de transition écologique (CTE), sujet sur lequel il a sollicité l’avis du CESE. Le Conseil estime que ce nouveau contrat, entre l’Etat et les territoires, peut être une opportunité s’il est construit sur une approche ascendante, globale et inclusive et conçu de façon ambitieuse. Il devra être systémique, solidaire et s’appuyer sur des projets de territoires. Dans cette optique, le CESE propose les modalités d’organisation et d’animation de ces futurs contrats.

Brexit and its implications for British and EU Energy and Climate Policy / Michael Pollitt and Chi-Kong Chyong. Brussels : Centre on Regulation in Europe, November 2017, 59 p. http://www.cerre.eu/sites/cerre/files/171122_CERRE_BrexitEnergy_FinalReport.pdf

The aim of the paper is to examine the potential implications of Brexit from the perspective of both the UK and EU-ex UK (EU-27) with particular attention to neighbouring states, with physical energy interconnections with the UK – currently lreland, France and the Netherlands in electricity and lreland, Belgium, and the Netherlands in gas…

Gasoline Demand in Non-OECD Asia: Drivers and Constraints / Anupama Sen , Michal Meidan and Miswin Mahesh. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, November 2017, 34 p. (OIES paper: WPM 74) https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/gasoline-demand-non-oecd-asia-drivers-constraints/

Global oil demand is undergoing a structural shift. This is broadly reflected in changing demand dynamics over the last 15 years. While OECD demand decreased by 3 million barrels per day (mb/d) from 2000-15, demand in non-OECD countries grew by 21 mb/d (IEA, 2015). This shift is characterised by two developments: first, the rapid growth in China’s oil consumption from 2000-13, and second, the subsequent ‘jump’ in India’s oil demand growth – which overtook China’s in 2015 to emerge as the main engine of non-OECD Asian oil demand growth. As the emerging market economies of non-OECD Asia continue to industrialise, rising per capita incomes are likely to further underpin this structural shift. The shift is particularly visible in gasoline demand – driven primarily by transport – which has defied expectations in terms of the sources of demand growth. Contrary to those expectations, the centre of growth has shifted from West of Suez markets to non-OECD Asia, which had previously been dominated by distillates. Average gasoline demand growth in Asia has nearly doubled from 130 kb/d a year from 2005-10, to 290 kb/d from 2011 onwards. At the same time, climate change mitigation and growing concerns over air quality imply that Asia’s economic growth will occur in a carbon-constrained world, and non-OECD Asia may not follow the trajectories of the OECD countries. Given this context, this paper investigates two research questions: first, what are the key drivers of gasoline demand growth in non-OECD Asia, based on historical trends? And second, what are the constraints to gasoline demand growth in this region? The first question is investigated using statistical analyses on a panel dataset of 19 countries in the Asia-Pacific region, of which over half are non-OECD countries. The second question, driven by regional policies, is investigated by looking in depth at the cases of India and China. The paper gives a broad insight into the drivers and constraints on Asian gasoline demand, focusing on the transport sector as a key variable.

Gasoline Demand in Transport in Non-OECD Asia / Anupama Sen, Michal Meidan and Miswin Mahesh. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, November 2017, 16 p. (Energy Insight: 22) https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/gasoline-demand-transport-non-oecd-asia/

From 2000-2015, while OECD countries’ oil demand decreased by roughly 3 million barrels per day (mb/d), demand in non-OECD countries grew by around 21 mb/d. This represents an ongoing structural shift in oil demand dynamics that is characterised by two key developments: first, the rapid growth in China’s oil consumption from 2000-13, and second, the subsequent ‘jump’ in India’s oil demand growth – which overtook China’s in 2015 to emerge as the main engine of non-OECD Asian oil demand growth. The shift is particularly visible in gasoline demand – driven primarily by transport – which has defied expectations in terms of the sources of demand growth. Contrary to those expectations, the centre of growth has shifted from West of Suez markets to non-OECD Asia, which had previously been dominated by distillates. Average gasoline demand growth in Asia has nearly doubled from 130 kb/d a year from 2005-10, to 290 kb/d from 2011 onwards. As the emerging market economies of non-OECD Asia continue to industrialise, rising per capita incomes are likely to further underpin this structural shift. At the same time, climate change mitigation and growing concerns over poor air quality imply that non-OECD Asia’s economic growth will occur in a carbon-constrained world, and are unlikely to follow the trajectories of the OECD countries. This Insight summarises findings from a recent OIES Paper which investigates two research questions: first, what are the key drivers of gasoline demand growth in non-OECD Asia, based on historical trends? And second, what are the constraints to gasoline demand growth in this region? The first question is investigated through an analysis of   statistical data on 19 countries in the Asia-Pacific region, of which over half are non-OECD. The second question, driven by local and regional policies, is investigated by looking in depth at the cases of India and China. While these economies are entering or are already in high growth trajectories with car ownership levels rising, oil demand growth in transport is likely to slow relative to a baseline, as policies to substitute away from oil in transport are implemented on a widespread basis. The paper provides broad insights into the drivers and constraints on gasoline demand in non-OECD Asia, focusing on the transport sector as a key variable.

Danièle Revel

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