Energie : papiers de recherche moissonnés (18/12/2017)

Coal 2O17: Analysis and Forecasts to 2O22. Paris : IEA/OECD, Dec. 2017, 148 p. (market report series : coal) http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/energy/market-report-series-coal-2017_coal_mar-2017-en ; http://www.iea.org/bookshop/763-Market_Series_Report:_Coal_2017

The future of coal – the world’s dominant fuel for more than a century – continues to be one of the most pressing questions in the energy scene. Coal is under pressure in many regions of the world for its contribution to greenhouse gases. It is being squeezed out in power generation by cheap and abundant natural gas and fast-growing renewables, whose costs are also plummeting.
At the same time, however, recent declines in coal usage have also been reversed this year by stronger consumption in coal’s three largest markets – China, India, and the United States. But, whereas this growth is expected to be temporary in China and United States, that is not the case for India. Despite progress in energy efficiency improvements and the deployment of renewables, increasing energy needs for its economic growth and development will push India to expand coal use.
The IEA Coal 2017 market and analysis report provides a comprehensive analysis of recent trends and forecasts through 2022 of coal demand, supply and trade at both the global and regional levels. The insights provided in this report help to explain the current developments in coal markets and provide a window into the fuel’s future over the next five years.

Electricity Networks: Technology, Future Role and Economic Incentives for Innovation / Rahmatallah Poudineh, Donna Peng & Seyed Reza Mirnezami. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, Dec. 2017, 40 p. (OIES Paper: EL 27) https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/electricity-networks-technology-future-role-economic-incentives-innovation/

While the economics of low carbon generation technologies is fast improving due to a mix of policy and market driven incentives, innovation in electricity networks has been relatively sluggish. This slow adaptation of electricity networks is challenging as they are key to the energy transition. Further electrification of the economy requires significant investment and innovation in the grid segment of the electricity supply chain.  Traditional regulatory models of natural monopoly network utilities are designed to incentivise cost efficiency, with the assumption that network business is costly and the task of regulation is to encourage cost reduction subject to firm achieving a certain level of reliability. A feature of innovation activities is that they are riskier in comparison with the business-as-usual activities of network firms. This paper reviews the evolution of electricity grids from the technological and organisational perspectives and analyses the efficacy of existing incentive models in encouraging innovation.  We show that incentive mechanisms that do not take uncertainty into account in the outcome of innovation efforts divert the attention of network utilities from innovation to normal efficiency gains. We also demonstrate that the issue of risk can distort the outcome of a competitive scheme for innovation funds when bidders are heterogeneous in their risk tolerance. Finally, based on the results of our analysis about the role of risk in innovation activities and a review of innovation incentive mechanisms in the UK and Italy, we provide recommendations for addressing the problem of innovation under regulation.

Le partage arbitraire du mix électrique français entre nucléaire et renouvelables. Quelle rationalité économique ? / Dominique Finon. Paris : CIRED, décembre 2017, 20 p. (WP n°68) http://www2.centre-cired.fr/IMG/pdf/cired_wp_2017-68_finon.pdf

Au nom de la transition bas carbone, un compromis politique bancal a conduit à décider d’un partage arbitraire du mix électrique sans fondement économique, ni environnemental en réduisant la part du nucléaire dans la production électrique à 50 % pour laisser la place aux énergies renouvelables pour qu’elles atteignent une part de 40% en 2030. Certains ont cherché à donner une rationalité économique à cette politique basée sur ces deux cibles de moyens en se reposant sur deux intuitions : la valeur de diversification du mix, sorte de valeur d’option du choix de briser l’effet d’irréversibilité des choix nucléaires des années 70 et 80, et la valeur d’option du choix d’attendre dans le domaine nucléaire pour éviter de nouvelles irréversibilités. Ce papier « détricote » ce raisonnement en montrant qu’il ne respecte en aucune façon les conditions de rigueur du raisonnement de la théorie des valeurs d’option : envisager de façon détaillée les options possibles, identifier avec précision les incertitudes et les risques attachés à chacune des options ainsi que ceux émanant du contexte pour chaque option, et anticiper leurs effets d’irréversibilité. Au bout du compte, la façon de poser le problème révèle d’un parti-pris infondé en faveur de la compétitivité économique des ENR intermittentes, un déni sans fondement de toute possibilité de maîtrise économique du nucléaire dans des conditions de sûreté élevées et une approche émotionnelle du risque nucléaire. La politique de décarbonation du secteur électrique basée sur des cibles de parts de marché de technologies bas carbone en 2030-2035, qui prétend ouvrir les futurs pour limiter les risques, tourne le dos à toute logique économique et conduit à ignorer les « effets inattendus » de toute politique de développement des ENR intermittentes à grande échelle.

Transitioning beyond coal: Lessons from the structural renewal of Europe’s old industrial regions / Stephanie Campbell and Lars Coenen. Australian National University. Centre for Climate Economics and Policy, Nov. 2017, 22 p. (CCEP Working Paper 1709) https://econpapers.repec.org/paper/eenccepwp/1709.htm

It is often assumed that a transition to a low-carbon future will have highly disruptive and potentially devastating effects on coal regions and their communities. However, evidence from the experience of industrial decline and attempted renewal in Europe’s old industrial regions demonstrates that successful regional transition is—while not inevitable—indeed possible. Fundamental transformation of existing industrial, institutional, social and technological structures is not an easy nor straightforward process but fraught with the challenges of creative destruction: while new industrial activities and structures emerge, existing ones are broken down. Drawing on the literature of regional resilience and innovation, the paper offers lessons, insights and cautionary warnings from the experience of renewal initiatives in Europe’s old industrial regions and illustrates the ways in which some of the seeds for a ‘just’ regional transitions to zero-carbon economies may, in fact, lie in a careful understanding of the potential to build on the specific historical context of the regions industrial development and capabilities.

Danièle Revel

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