Exploring the Nature of Strategic Interactions in the Ratification Process of the Kyoto Protocol
Exploring the Nature of Strategic Interactions in the Ratification Process of the Kyoto Protocol / Sauquet A. Clermont-Ferrand : CERDI, juillet 2011, 31 p.
Do countries interact when they decide to ratify the Kyoto protocol? What is the nature of these possible interactions? To answer these questions we provide a theoretical analysis based on the notions of strategic substitutability and strategic complementarity. Firstly, we analyze the nature of interactions between countries when they merely seek to provide a global public good (avoiding climate change). Secondly, we argue that countries are interlinked in several dimensions in the real world and we try to shed light on the nature of strategic interactions generated by geographic proximity, trade flows and green investment flows. The empirical investigation is realized via the introduction of spatially lagged endogenous variables in a parametric survival model and our data sample covers the period from 1998 to 2009 for 164 countries. We find evidence that the decisions of neighbors and of green investors matter. Furthermore, our results indicate that the influence of the decision of trading partners is even more substantial. (© Sauquet)