Energie : papiers de recherche moissonnés (16/01/2018)

Prix de l’électricité en France et dans l’Union européenne en 2016. France. Commissariat général au développement durable, janvier 2018, 4 p. (Datalab essentiel n° 132) http://www.statistiques.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/publications/p/2753/995/prix-lelectricite-france-lunion-europeenne-2016.html

Dans l’Union européenne (UE), en 2016, le prix de l’électricité baisse plus fortement pour les entreprises (- 4,1 %) que pour les ménages (- 2,3 %). En France, le prix décroît également pour les entreprises, et de façon plus marquée qu’au niveau européen (- 7,1 %). Il augmente pour les ménages (+ 1,4 %), mais dans une moindre proportion que les années précédentes. Dans les deux segments de clientèle, le prix français se situe nettement en deçà de la moyenne européenne.

Prix du gaz en France et dans l’Union européenne en 2016. France. Commissariat général au développement durable, janvier 2018, 4 p. (Datalab essentiel n° 133) http://www.statistiques.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/publications/p/2753/1009/prix-gaz-france-lunion-europeenne-2016.html

En 2016, le prix du gaz a fortement baissé pour les entreprises dans l’Union européenne (- 15,3 %) et en France (- 13,4 %). Pour les particuliers, 2016 est également une année de recul des prix du gaz, mais de moindre ampleur : – 7,9 % dans l’UE et – 7,0 % en France. Les niveaux de prix en France sont proches de la moyenne de la zone euro.

Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2017. Abu Dhabi : Irena, Jan. 2018, 160 p. – ISBN 978-92-9260-040-2 http://www.irena.org/publications/2018/Jan/Renewable-power-generation-costs-in-2017

Renewable energy has emerged as an increasingly competitive way to meet new power generation needs. This comprehensive cost report from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) highlights the latest trends for each of the main renewable power technologies, based on the latest cost and auction price data from projects around the world.

Peak Oil Demand and Long-Run Oil Prices / Spencer Dale and Bassam Fattouh. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, Jan. 2018, 11 p. (OIES energy insight ; 25.) https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/peak-oil-demand-long-run-oil-prices/

The prospect that global oil demand will gradually slow and eventually peak has created a cottage industry of executives and commentators trying to predict the point at which demand will peak. In this Energy Insight, we argue that this focus seems misplaced.  The date at which oil demand will stop growing is highly uncertain and small changes in assumptions can lead to vastly different estimates.  More importantly, there is little reason to believe that once it does peak, that oil demand will fall sharply.  The world is likely to demand large quantities of oil for many decades to come. Rather, the significance of peak oil is that it signals a shift in paradigm – from an age of (perceived) scarcity to an age of abundance – and with it is likely to herald a shift to a more competitive market environment.  This change in paradigm is also likely to pose material challenges for oil producing economies as they try both to ensure that their oil is produced and consumed, and at the same time diversify their economies fit for a world in which they can no longer rely on oil revenues to provide their main source of revenue for the indefinite future. We argue that the extent and pace of this diversification is likely to have an important bearing on oil prices over the next 20 or 30 years.  It seems likely that many low-cost producers will delay the pace at which they adopt a more competitive “higher volume, lower price” strategy until they have made material progress in reforming their economies.  In particular, in reducing the “social costs” of oil production associated with using oil revenues to finance many other aspects of their economy, such as health care provision or public sector employment. More generally, it seems unlikely that oil prices will stabilise around a level in which many of the world’s major oil producing economies are running large and persistent fiscal deficits.  As such, the average level of oil prices over the next few decades is likely to depend more on developments in the social cost of production across the major oil producing economies than on the physical cost of extraction.

La transition énergétique face au défi des métaux critiques / Gilles Lepensant. Paris : Ifri, janvier 2018, 56 p. https://www.ifri.org/fr/publications/etudes-de-lifri/transition-energetique-face-defi-metaux-critiques-une-domination-de

Si les flux, les gisements et les cours des énergies fossiles alimentent une part importante de l’analyse géopolitique, la réflexion est moins développée concernant les énergies renouvelables. Pourtant, les perspectives de développement de ces énergies (elles ont représenté près des deux-tiers des capacités de production électrique ajoutées en 2016), invite à considérer de nouvelles vulnérabilités, liées à la disponibilité des métaux critiques, notamment des terres rares, nécessaires aux éoliennes, aux panneaux photovoltaïques et aux dispositifs de stockage d’énergie…

Electricity Pricing and the Willingness to Pay for Electricity in India: Current Understanding and the Way Forward / Bigsna Gill, Sonakshi Saluja and Debajit Palit. New Delhi : The Energy and Resources Institute, Dec. 2017, 36 p. http://www.teriin.org/files/wtp-report-2017.pdf

The issue of energy access and the associated willingness to pay (WTP) for energy services has been extensively researched and studied globally as well as in India. In order to provide useful recommendations for future electricity-pricing debates, this study undertook a meta-analysis of existing WTP studies in the electricity sector and stakeholder interviews to examine and quantify the evidence on the willingness to pay for electricity supply in India. It compared these findings with the current electricity-pricing mechanisms to derive recommendations on future electricity pricing and subsidy policies. The need for this study emerged in the backdrop of the structural changes that are currently underway to ensure the viability of electricity distribution companies (discoms) in India, specifically to understand how much consumers would be willing or able to pay for electricity services, in favour of tariffs that reflect the ‘cost to serve’, and whether such willingness to pay alone can fill the revenue shortfall gap for electricity distribution companies.

The developing role of blockchain. World Energy Council ; PricewaterhouseCoopers, November 2017, 22 p. https://www.worldenergy.org/publications/2017/the-developing-role-of-blockchain/

This White Paper looks at the potential of Blockchain Technology for the energy sector. Although blockchain is gaining wide-spread acknowledgement and use in the sector, there are still a number of uncertainties surrounding the technology and a combination of technological, regulatory and other practical challenges could stall its growth.

Key questions addressed in the paper include:

  • What are blockchain’s opportunities and risks in the energy sector?
  • What are the latest updates on pilots, use cases and scalability?
  • What are the regulatory obstacles associated with the implementation of blockchain applications and what are the issues to be addressed?
  • How will blockchain impact company and state value chain infrastructure related to the energy sector?

The paper draws from interviews with companies and organisations actively involved in blockchain projects in the energy industry from the US, Europe, China, Japan and New Zealand. It is designed to start a dialogue on potential obstacles to the uptake of blockchain and where the technology might be headed.

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