Energie : papiers de recherche moissonnés (1/02/2018)

The European Power Sector in 2017 : State of Affairs and Review of Current Developments / Dave Jones, Alice Sakhel, Matthias Buck, Patrick Graichen. London : Sandbag ; Berlin : Agora Energiewende, Jan. 2018, 52 p. https://frama.link/agora-energiewende

The report present the state of the energy transition in the European power sector, to update what happened in 2017. Key topics include renewables growth, conventional power generation, power consumption, and CO2 emissions. We also make this data available to download in order to enable others to perform up-to-date analysis without needing to reinvent the wheel…

Long-term availability of global uranium resources Author links open overlay panel / Antoine Monnet, Sophie Gabriel et Jacques Percebois, Resources Policy, volume 53, September 2017, pp. 394-407 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2017.07.008

Against a backdrop of decarbonisation in the energy sector and the increasing share of nuclear power in the global power mix, availability of uranium resources presents a major challenge. Since it will be some time before technologies of future nuclear reactors which remove the reliance on natural uranium are fully deployed, it is relevant to analyse the availability conditions for uranium in the 21st century. The first two conditions – technical accessibility and economic value – are associated with production cost. We study these by modelling the ultimate uranium resources (including both identified and undiscovered resources) and their cost. This method is based on a regional breakdown of global uranium resources, current known deposits and an economic filter. It allows us to establish a long-term supply curve in which the quantities of technically accessible uranium resources are represented as a function of production cost. The other uranium availability conditions considered are associated with market dynamics, which created by the relationship between supply and demand. These are modelled in the form of dynamic constraints in a partial equilibrium market model. This is a deterministic model in which the market players are represented by regions. It allows us to take account, for instance, of the short-term correlation between price and exploration expenditure. In the longer term, the constraints modelled include anticipation of demand from electric utilities (the consumers) and the increasing scarcity of the least costly ultimate resources. Using a series of forward looking simulations, we demonstrate that the rate of growth in demand for uranium in the 21st century and its anticipation have a major impact on the increase in price in the long-term. Conversely, uncertainties related to the estimation of ultimate resources have a limited effect. Lastly, some variations in supply (uranium prouction shutdown in a particular region, for example) or demand (irregular increase) also have a significant impact on long-term price trends or cycles.

Parched Power: Water Demands, Risks, and Opportunities for India’s Power Sector / Tianyi Luo, Deepak Krishnan and Shreyan Sen. Washington : World Resources Institute, Jan. 2018, 40 p. (working paper) http://www.wri.org/publication/parched-power

This paper aims to help decision-makers understand the magnitude of water issues for the thermal power sector in India with quantitative evidence. There is a significant data gap in power plant water use in India. The authors used data science techniques and innovative methodologies and developed a comprehensive plant-level geodatabase on water withdrawal and consumption for India’s thermal power sector, making a first-cut attempt to fill the data gap. Combined with information on power generation, water risks, and future projections of energy and water demand, this paper quantifies the Indian thermal power sector’s water demand, assesses its exposure to water stress, and evaluates opportunities for reducing water requirements while supporting power growth for the future.

Cost Recovery and Financial Viability of the Power Sector in Developing Countries: A Literature Review / Joern Torsten Huenteler, Istvan Dobozi, Ani Balabanyan and Sudeshna Ghosh Banerjee . World Bank, Dec. 2017, 55 p. (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 8287) https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3092016

The financial viability of the power sector is a prerequisite for attracting the investment needed to ensure reliable energy supply, meet universal access targets, and hasten the clean energy transition. Adequate pricing of electricity to allow for cost recovery is also important to minimize the power sector?s negative macroeconomic, fiscal, environmental, and social impacts. This paper takes stock of the empirical and conceptual literature on the financial viability and cost recovery of the power sector in developing countries. Time-series data across countries are relatively scarce, but comparing the findings from 21 studies suggests that under-recovery of costs remains pervasive despite decades of efforts by governments and development institutions. Large electricity subsidies continue to burden governments, especially in the Middle East, South Asia, Central Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Reviews by the World Bank and International Monetary Fund on outcomes of their own engagement also conclude that progress on cost recovery in supported countries has been limited. Although the aggregated view obscures fluctuation within individual countries over time, the available evidence suggests that countries progressing toward cost recovery may find themselves backsliding within a few years. As for understanding the circumstances under which progress can be made, a handful of studies point toward a correlation between sector reforms and cost recovery, although few of the studies address obvious endogeneity problems. To provide more solid guidance for future efforts to improve cost recovery, more research is needed on: (i) the determinants and enabling conditions of progress on cost recovery; (ii) tariff reform sequencing; and (iii) institutional arrangements, policies, and regulations that enable countries to sustain cost recovery once it is reached.

Trajectoire énergétique : les enseignements des scénarios de RTE. Association négaWatt, janvier 2018, 2 p. https://negawatt.org/Trajectoire-energetique-les-enseignements-des-scenarios-de-RTE

En lien avec la révision des deux outils majeurs de pilotage de la transition énergétique française que sont la Programmation pluriannuelle de l’énergie (PPE) et la Stratégie nationale bas carbone (SNBC), les scénarios publiés en octobre 2017 par RTE dessinent un paysage de possibles à l’horizon 2035 riche de très importants enseignements. L’effervescence médiatique autour de cette publication n’a malheureusement mis en évidence qu’une supposée impossibilité de respecter l’objectif 50 % de nucléaire en 2025 tout en contenant les émissions de CO2. Pourtant d’autres voies existent. Dans cette note de deux pages, l’Association négaWatt propose une analyse des scénarios publiés par RTE dans son bilan prévisionnel 2017.

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