Climat : papiers de recherche moissonnés (15 février 2018)

COP23 Analysis: The Calm Before the Storm. A detailed analysis of the 23rd world climate conference COP23 in Bonn / Wolfgang Obergassel, Christof Arens, Lukas Hermwille, Nicolas Kreibich, Florian Mersmann, Hermann E. Ott, Hanna Wang-Helmreich. Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, Feb. 2018, 20 p.

From 6 to 17 November, the 23rd Conference of the Parties (COP23) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was held in Bonn under the presidency of Fiji. Researchers from the Wuppertal Institute who attended the conference have now published an in-depth analysis of the key results of the conference.
The report starts by discussing developments regarding the implementation of the Paris Agreement, in particular the negotiations on the detailed ‘rulebook’ for implementing the Agreement. Other key issues addressed at the conference were the support for countries of the Global South in dealing with the effects of climate change (adaptation and climate finance) and preparation of the first global review of climate action that will take place in December this year. In addition, the report discusses recent developments in the wider world that have an impact on the UNFCCC, in particular the rise of pioneer alliances at the intergovernmental and civil society level.
Although some progress was achieved regarding the rulebook for implementation of the Paris Agreement, no real breakthrough was made. Therefore, quite some diplomatic work and political leadership will be needed this year to make the adoption of the rulebook at COP24 in Katowice (Poland) possible. This will require quite some tailwind from civil society and the media.
The authors of the report emphasise that the full calendar of climate diplomacy over the next years will hopefully contribute to keeping climate protection in the news and high on the political agenda. They conclude that for the success of COP24 in Katowice in December this year, it will be essential that all countries rediscover the central message of the Paris Agreement: that in the face of the coming storms on a finite planet, we are all in the same boat.

Adopter une vision globale du financement de la transition écologique / Marion Cohen, Guillaume De Smedt, Alain Grandjean, Morgane Nicol. Paris : Chaire Energie & prospérité,
janvier 2018, 32 p. (Policy paper)

Réussir la transition écologique implique une transformation profonde de notre modèle de développement pour économiser les ressources naturelles et les répartir plus équitablement, réduire les émissions de gaz à effet de serre, dépolluer et réhabiliter les sols et les eaux. Cela nécessite d’investir massivement dans de nouvelles infrastructures là où elles font défaut et dans la mise en conformité écologique de celles qui existent déjà. Et cela, sans oublier la dimension sociale des investissements (éducation, formation, R&D), car il nous faut réapprendre à produire et à consommer tout en accompagnant les transitions professionnelles. Or, quand on parle d’investir dans la transition écologique deux discours contradictoires émergent : les porteurs de projets déplorent l’absence de financement, et les investisseurs l’absence de projets. Cette contradiction n’est qu’apparente : les ressources financières ne manquent pas mais d’une part, les entrepreneurs n’y ont pas nécessairement accès, car les projets durables peinent à dégager une rentabilité intrinsèque dans l’environnement économique actuel, et d’autre part, les investissements de long terme n’ont pas la faveur des investisseurs. Pour y remédier il faut donc agir simultanément sur la sphère de « l’économie réelle » et sur la sphère financière.

The Dangers of an Unrealistic Climate Change Target / Ted Nordhaus, Foreign Affairs, Snapshot, 8 Feb. 2018

Global carbon emissions rose again in 2017, disappointing hopes that the previous three years of near zero growth marked an inflection point in the fight against climate change. Advocates of renewable energy had attributed flat emissions to the falling cost of solar panels. Energy efficiency devotees had seen in the pause proof that economic activity had been decoupled from energy consumption. Advocates of fossil fuel divestment had posited that the carbon bubble had finally burst…

The Economic Impacts of Climate Change / Richard S J Tol, Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, rex027, 18/01/2018

This article reviews the economic impacts of climate change and the policy implications of the results. Current estimates indicate that climate change will likely have a limited impact on the economy and human welfare in the twenty-first century. In fact, the initial impacts of climate change may well be positive. However, in the long run the negative impacts dominate the positive ones. Negative impacts will be substantially greater in poorer, hotter, and lower-lying countries. Poverty reduction complements greenhouse gas emissions reduction as a means to reduce climate change impacts. Although climate change may affect the growth rate of the global economy and may trap more people in poverty, quantification of these impacts remains difficult. The optimal carbon tax in the near term is somewhere between a few tens and a few hundreds of dollars per ton of carbon.

Population-Level Exposure to Particulate Air Pollution during Active Travel: Planning for Low-Exposure, Health-Promoting Cities / Steve Hankey, Greg Lindsey, and Julian D. Marshall, Environmental Health Perspectives,, vol. 125, n° 4, April 2017, pp. 527-534

Providing infrastructure and land uses to encourage active travel (i.e., bicycling and walking) are promising strategies for designing health-promoting cities. Population-level exposure to air pollution during active travel is understudied. Our goals were a) to investigate population-level patterns in exposure during active travel, based on spatial estimates of bicycle traffic, pedestrian traffic, and particulate concentrations; and b) to assess how those exposure patterns are associated with the built environment.

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