Energie : papiers de recherche moissonnés (7 mars 2018)

Dutch disease dynamics reconsidered / Hilde C. Bjørnland, Leif Anders Thorsrud and Ragnar Torvik. Norges Nank, Feb. 2018, 41 p. (Working Paper ; 1/2018) https://www.norges-bank.no/en/Published/Papers/Working-Papers/2018/12018/

In this paper we develop the first model to incorporate the dynamic productivity consequences of both the spending effect and the resource movement effect of oil abundance. We show that doing so dramatically alters the conclusions drawn from earlier models of learning by doing (LBD) and the Dutch disease. In particular, the resource movement effect suggests that the growth effects of natural resources are likely to be positive, turning previous growth results in the literature relying on the spending effect on their head. We motivate the relevance of our approach by the example of a major oil producer, Norway, where it seems clear that the predictions based on existing theory do not apply. Although the effects of an increase in the price of oil may resemble results found in the earlier Dutch disease literature, the effects of increased oil activity do not. Therefore, models that only focus on windfall gains due to increased spending potential from higher oil prices, would conclude – incorrectly based on our analysis – that the resource sector cannot be an engine of growth.

Oil 2018. Analysis and Forecasts to 2023. Paris : OECD/IEA, March 2018, 137 p. http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/energy/oil-2018_oil_mar-2018-en – http://www.iea.org/bookshop/768-Market_Series_Report:_Oil_2018

Oil 2018 is the IEA’s annual five-year forecast of global oil demand, supply refining, and trade. Global oil demand growth remains healthy driven by developing countries in Asia, even as oil consumption growth slows down in China thanks to new environmental policies designed to curb air pollution. Strong growth in petrochemicals demand globally is another key area of growth. Upstream investments have not rebounded from the historic two-year decline seen in 2015-2016 except in the United States which dominates the supply growth story. Meanwhile, there is uncertainty over the longer-term prospects of the successful OPEC and non-OPEC market management policy. These strands set the scene for Oil 2018’s analysis of the market, which examines a wide range of other important issues and uncertainties, including:

• The implications for oil demand of the 2020 IMO marine fuel regulations.
• The growth of the global petrochemicals sector.
• The rise of electrification in China’s transport fleet.
• Decline rates in key oil producing countries.
• Crude quality issues arising from the rapid increase in US production.
• Investment needs in North American takeaway capacity.
• Implications for global refining of the looming capacity surplus.
• Trends in global oil trade.

Gazprom in Europe – two “Anni Mirabiles”, but can it continue? / James Henderson & Jack Sharples. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, March 2018, 27 p. (Oxford energy insight ; 29) https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/gazprom-europe-two-anni-mirabiles-can-continue/

Gazprom has confounded many expectations by enjoying two record years of gas sales in Europe in 2016 and 2017. External factors have certainly played a role in its success, with overall European demand rebounding, indigenous production continuing to fall and alternative sources of imports failing to deliver at the expected levels (especially LNG). In addition, Gazprom has demonstrated  a level of flexibility in its pricing strategy that has kept its gas very competitive, with the result that its market share in Europe has grown to 35%. However, the anticipation that this figure could rise towards 40% and above has led EU politicians and policy-makers to become concerned about over-dependence on Russian gas, and many now wish to ensure that Gazprom’s future options are limited by obstructing potential new pipelines. In addition the politics surrounding Ukraine, the imposition of stricter US sanctions, questions surrounding  the DG COMP investigation into Gazprom’s activities and the Stockholm arbitration ruling over contracts with Ukraine add further layers of complexity. This paper therefore explores whether Gazprom’s two anni mirabiles in 2016 and 2017 can be repeated or whether Russian gas faces a more challenging environment in the rest of the decade.

Comment accélérer la transition énergétique ? Avis sur la mise en œuvre de la loi relative à la transition énergétique / Guillaume Duval, Madeleine Charru. France. Conseil Economique Social et Environnemental, février 2018, 138 p. http://www.lecese.fr/content/comment-accelerer-la-transition-energetique-le-cese-rendu-ses-preconisations

La loi relative à la transition énergétique pour la croissance verte (LTECV) adoptée en 2015 a concrétisé la volonté de diviser par 4 les émissions de gaz à effet de serre du pays d’ici à 2050. Elle entend accélérer le développement des énergies renouvelables, réaliser des efforts importants en matière d’efficacité énergétique, notamment dans les bâtiments, et promouvoir la sobriété énergétique en incitant ménages et entreprises à modifier leurs comportements. Trois ans après, le CESE dresse un premier bilan de sa mise en œuvre.

Danièle Revel

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